amei: An R Package for the Adaptive Management of Epidemiological Interventions

The amei package for R is a tool that provides a flexible statistical framework for generating optimal epidemiological interventions that are designed to minimize the total expected cost of an emerging epidemic. Uncertainty regarding the underlying disease parameters is propagated through to the decision process via Bayesian posterior inference. The strategies produced through this framework are adaptive: vaccination schedules are iteratively adjusted to reflect the anticipated trajectory of the epidemic given the current population state and updated parameter estimates. This document briefly covers the background and methodology underpinning the implementation provided by the package and contains extensive examples showing the functions and methods in action.

Reflection Characteristics of Small Conducting Elements

Electrical Engineerin

Compatibility studies of several molten uranium and thorium alloys in niobium, tantalum, and yttrium

Niobium, tantalum, yttrium, and Inconel have been used to contain molten aluminum, lead, tin, zinc, and several of their respective uranium and thorium alloys for various times up to 3000 hours and at temperatures ranging from 600 to 1100° C. Altogether 76 capsule tests were run, almost all in a static isothermal condition. Tantalum showed the best resistance followed by niobium, Inconel, and yttrium respectively. The systems, lead in tantalum and lead in niobium, showed the greatest potentials for possible liquid-metal fuel carrier systems. An alloy of uranium-bismuth-tin contained in tantalum also exhibited promising possibilities . The tabulated test data include a classification of the type of corrosion attack which occurred and a measured value of the amount of corrosive penetration. Each test was also given an arbitrary rating for easy reference comparisons. A number of photomicrographs are included for each set of tests

amei: An R Package for the Adaptive Management of Epidemiological Interventions

The <b>amei</b> package for <b>R</b> is a tool that provides a flexible statistical framework for generating optimal epidemiological interventions that are designed to minimize the total expected cost of an emerging epidemic. Uncertainty regarding the underlying disease parameters is propagated through to the decision process via Bayesian posterior inference. The strategies produced through this framework are adaptive: vaccination schedules are iteratively adjusted to reflect the anticipated trajectory of the epidemic given the current population state and updated parameter estimates. This document briefly covers the background and methodology underpinning the implementation provided by the package and contains extensive examples showing the functions and methods in action

Legislation Review and Recommendations to Reduce Evasion of Kentucky Road Fund Revenues

Kentucky, like other states, is facing fiscal challenges in providing expanding public services demanded by citizens. One danger of constrained fiscal resources and shortsighted political horizons is the tendency to neglect the investment and maintenance of long-term infrastructures like highways. The Kentucky road fund protects against these dangers by providing earmarked resources for the state\u27s roadways, insuring that basic infrastructure needs are met. However, evasion of road fund revenues decreases the funds available to meet the needs of Kentucky\u27s transportation infrastructure. For these reasons, the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet is interested in developing policy recommendations intended to mitigate evasion of road fund revenues. This report compliments the final report The Motor Fuel Tax Evasion Issue in Kentucky, 1996 (KYSPR 93-153) which identifies potential concerns in the nature and causes of road fund tax evasion. This current study constitutes an informal report that is complimentary to research report KTC-96-16. Moreover, it provides additional detail regarding the legislative action that addresses fuel tax evasion in the southern region. This report also develops estimates of the revenues lost through evasion in vehicle registration and licensing in the Commonwealth. The Federal Highway Trust and the Kentucky road fund were established to provide earmarked resources for maintaining and building federal and state roadways. Two major sources of the revenues for the Kentucky road fund are the motor fuels tax and vehicle licensing and registration fees/taxes. Evasion of these revenues diminishes the resources available to maintaining and building state roadways. There are three studies that have estimated the fuel tax revenue lost through evasion. The U.S. Department of Transportation estimated that evasion of the gasoline tax is between three and seven percent of the gallons consumed nationally, while diesel fuel tax evasion is 15 to 25 percent of gallons consumed nationally. Evidence of fuel tax evasion is provided in the Council of State Governments (CSG) study that estimated nearly 1.2 billion dollars of aggregate state fuel tax revenue was evaded in fiscal year 1993. Estimates of the fuel tax evasion occurring in Kentucky are provided in the KTC final report The Motor Fuel Tax Evasion Issue in Kentucky (1996). This study estimates that up to 20 million dollars of Kentucky fuel tax revenue was potentially evaded in fiscal year 1993. Estimates of revenue lost through evasion of vehicle registration and licensing are less common. The CSG report estimated that between 421 to 654 million dollars of aggregate state revenue from licensing and registration were evaded in fiscal year 1993. Similar analysis is applied to obtain the evasion losses of Kentucky vehicle registration and the associated ad valorem taxes as reported in Appendix B. The estimation predicts that over 239 thousand vehicles were unregistered in Kentucky in 1994, resulting in a road fund revenue loss that approach 50 million dollars

A Statistical Framework for the Adaptive Management of Epidemiological Interventions

Background: Epidemiological interventions aim to control the spread of infectious disease through various mechanisms, each carrying a different associated cost. Methodology: We describe a flexible statistical framework for generating optimal epidemiological interventions that are designed to minimize the total expected cost of an emerging epidemic while simultaneously propagating uncertainty regarding the underlying disease model parameters through to the decision process. The strategies produced through this framework are adaptive: vaccination schedules are iteratively adjusted to reflect the anticipated trajectory of the epidemic given the current population state and updated parameter estimates. Conclusions: Using simulation studies based on a classic influenza outbreak, we demonstrate the advantages of adaptiv

The Experiment for Space Radiation Analysis: Probing the Earth\u27s Radiation Belts Using a CubeSat Platform

The Experiment for Space Radiation Analysis (ESRA) is the latest of a series of Demonstration and Validation missions built by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, with the focus on testing a new generation of plasma and energetic particle sensors. The primary motivation for the ESRA payloads is to minimize size, weight, power, and cost while still providing necessary mission data. These new instruments will be demonstrated by ESRA through testing and on-orbit operations to increase their technology readiness level such that they can support the evolution of technology and mission objectives. This project will leverage a commercial off-the-shelf CubeSat avionics bus and commercial satellite ground networks to reduce the cost and timeline associated with traditional DemVal missions. The system will launch as a ride share with the DoD Space Test Program to be inserted in Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) and allow observations of the Earth’s radiation belts. The ESRA CubeSat consists of two science payloads and several subsystems: the Wide-field-of-view Plasma Spectrometer, the Energetic Charged Particle telescope, high voltage power supply, payload processor, flight software architecture, and distributed processor module. The ESRA CubeSat will provide measurements of the plasma and energetic charged particle populations in the GTO environment for ions ranging from ~100 eV to ~1000 MeV and electrons with energy ranging from 100 keV to 20 MeV. ESRA will utilize a commercial 12U bus and demonstrate a low-cost, rapidly deployable spaceflight platform with sufficient SWAP to enable efficient measurements of the energetic particle populations in the dynamic radiation belts

The LANSCE RICE control system upgrade.

The LANSCE (Los Alamos Neutron Science Center) control system upgrade program continues with the impending replacement of the RICE (Remote Instrumentation and Control Equipment) subsystem. The RICE subsystem upgrade is a challenge because of its technology (late 1960s), number of channels (&gt;10,000), and unique characteristics (all-modules data takes, timed/flavored data takes). The plan is to replace at least the non-timed data and the command portions of the subsystem with Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs). We discuss motivations, technological challenges, proof-of-principle, and planning. The boundary condition, as usual, is that we must implement these major changes on a running accelerator

Prototype Testing Results of Charged Particle Detectors and Critical Subsystems for the ESRA Mission to GTO

The Experiment for Space Radiation Analysis (ESRA) is the latest of a series of Demonstration and Validation (DemVal) missions built by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, with the focus on testing a new generation of plasma and energetic paritcle sensors along with critical subsystems. The primary motivation for the ESRA payloads is to minimize size, weight, power, and cost while still providing necessary mission data. These new instruments will be demonstrated by ESRA through ground-based testing and on-orbit operations to increase their technology readiness level such that they can support the evolution of technology and mission objectives. This project will leverage a commercial off-the-shelf CubeSat avionics bus and commercial satellite ground networks to reduce the cost and timeline associated with traditional DemVal missions. The system will launch as a ride share with the DoD Space Test Program to be inserted in Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) and allow observations of the Earth\u27s radiation belts. The ESRA CubeSat consists of two science payloads and several subsystems: the Wide field-of-view Plasma Spectrometer, the Energetic Charged Particle telescope, high voltage power supply, payload processor, flight software architecture, and distributed processor module. The ESRA CubeSat will provide measurements of the plasma and energetic charged particle populations in the GTO environment for ions ranging from ~100 eV to ~1000 MeV and electrons with energy ranging from 100 keV to 20 MeV. ESRA will utilize a commercial 12U bus and demonstrate a low-cost, rapidly deployable spaceflight platform with sufficient SWAP to enable efficient measurements of the charged particle populations in the dynamic radiation belts

A genome-wide association study of anorexia nervosa suggests a risk locus implicated in dysregulated leptin signaling

J. Kaprio, A. Palotie, A. Raevuori-Helkamaa ja S. Ripatti ovat työryhmän Eating Disorders Working Group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium jäseniä. Erratum in: Sci Rep. 2017 Aug 21;7(1):8379, doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-06409-3We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of anorexia nervosa (AN) using a stringently defined phenotype. Analysis of phenotypic variability led to the identification of a specific genetic risk factor that approached genome-wide significance (rs929626 in EBF1 (Early B-Cell Factor 1); P = 2.04 x 10(-7); OR = 0.7; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.61-0.8) with independent replication (P = 0.04), suggesting a variant-mediated dysregulation of leptin signaling may play a role in AN. Multiple SNPs in LD with the variant support the nominal association. This demonstrates that although the clinical and etiologic heterogeneity of AN is universally recognized, further careful sub-typing of cases may provide more precise genomic signals. In this study, through a refinement of the phenotype spectrum of AN, we present a replicable GWAS signal that is nominally associated with AN, highlighting a potentially important candidate locus for further investigation.Peer reviewe