Contrasting current and future surface melt rates on the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica: Lessons from in situ observations and climate models

peer reviewedSurface meltwater production impacts the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in several ways, both directly (e.g., through runoff in Greenland) and indirectly (e.g., through cryo-hydrologic warming and frontal melt of marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland and hydrofracturing of ice shelves in Antarctica). Despite its importance, the spatial and temporal patterns in melt rates on both ice sheets are still relatively poorly understood. In this contribution we review and contrast surface melt ‘weather ‘(i.e., short term, intra- and interdiurnal variability) and surface melt ‘climate’ (i.e., longer term, interannual variability and future melt) of both ice sheets. We find that in situ observations using suitably equipped (automatic or staffed) weather stations are invaluable for a complete understanding of the melt process, which represents the complex transport of energy by radiation, turbulence, and molecular conduction between the lower atmosphere, the ice/snow surface, and the subsurface ice/snow layers. We provide example time series of ice sheet melt ‘weather’ for the marginal Greenland ice sheet, where warm and humid air masses tend to increase surface melt rate, and for coastal East Antarctica, where the opposite happens. Apart from process understanding, these in situ observations, which especially in Antarctica are scarce in space and time, are also invaluable to validate, evaluate and calibrate satellite- and model-based estimates of ice sheet surface melt rate. We provide examples of modelled melt maps for both ice sheets, and melt projections for a high-warming, fossil-fuelled development scenario. Although important milestones in melt observations (both in-situ and remotely sensed) and melt models (both global and regional) have recently been reached, we identify multiple outstanding research questions pertaining to current and future ice sheet surface melt rates

Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979-2015) and identification of dominant processes

The Antarctic ice sheet mass balance is a major component of the sea level budget and results from the difference of two fluxes of a similar magnitude: ice flow discharging in the ocean and net snow accumulation on the ice sheet surface, i.e. the surface mass balance (SMB). Separately modelling ice dynamics and SMB is the only way to project future trends. In addition, mass balance studies frequently use regional climate models (RCMs) outputs as an alternative to observed fields because SMB observations are particularly scarce on the ice sheet. Here we evaluate new simulations of the polar RCM MAR forced by three reanalyses, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2, for the period 1979&ndash;2015, and we compare MAR results to the last outputs of the RCM RACMO2 forced by ERA-Interim. We show that MAR and RACMO2 perform similarly well in simulating coast-to-plateau SMB gradients, and we find no significant differences in their simulated SMB when integrated over the ice sheet or its major basins. More importantly, we outline and quantify missing or underestimated processes in both RCMs. Along stake transects, we show that both models accumulate too much snow on crests, and not enough snow in valleys, as a result of drifting snow transport fluxes not included in MAR and probably underestimated in RACMO2 by a factor of 3. Our results tend to confirm that drifting snow transport and sublimation fluxes are much larger than previous model-based estimates and need to be better resolved and constrained in climate models. Sublimation of precipitating particles in low-level atmospheric layers is responsible for the significantly lower snowfall rates in MAR than in RACMO2 in katabatic channels at the ice sheet margins. Atmospheric sublimation in MAR represents 363&thinsp; Gt &thinsp; yr&minus;1 over the grounded ice sheet for the year 2015, which is 16&thinsp;% of the simulated snowfall loaded at the ground. This estimate is consistent with a recent study based on precipitation radar observations and is more than twice as much as simulated in RACMO2 because of different time residence of precipitating particles in the atmosphere. The remaining spatial differences in snowfall between MAR and RACMO2 are attributed to differences in advection of precipitation with snowfall particles being likely advected too far inland in MAR.</p

Changing distributions of sea ice melt and meteoric water west of the Antarctic Peninsula

The Western Antarctic Peninsula has recently undergone rapid climatic warming, with associated decreases in sea ice extent and duration, and increases in precipitation and glacial discharge to the ocean. These shifts in the freshwater budget can have significant consequences on the functioning of the regional ecosystem, feedbacks on regional climate, and sea-level rise. Here we use shelf-wide oxygen isotope data from cruises in four consecutive Januaries (2011–2014) to distinguish the freshwater input from sea ice melt separately from that due to meteoric sources (precipitation plus glacial discharge). Sea ice melt distributions varied from minima in 2011 of around 0 % up to maxima in 2014 of around 4–5%. Meteoric water contribution to the marine environment is typically elevated inshore, due to local glacial discharge and orographic effects on precipitation, but this enhanced contribution was largely absent in January 2013 due to anomalously low precipitation in the last quarter of 2012. Both sea ice melt and meteoric water changes are seen to be strongly influenced by changes in regional wind forcing associated with the Southern Annular Mode and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon, which also impact on net sea ice motion as inferred from the isotope data. A near-coastal time series of isotope data collected from Rothera Research Station reproduces well the temporal pattern of changes in sea ice melt, but less well the meteoric water changes, due to local glacial inputs and precipitation effects

Climate and surface mass balance of coastal West Antarctica resolved by regional climate modelling

West Antarctic climate and surface mass balance (SMB) records are sparse. To fill this gap, regional atmospheric climate modelling is useful, providing that such models are employed at sufficiently high horizontal resolution and coupled with a snow model. Here we present the results of a high-resolution (5.5 km) regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2) simulation of coastal West Antarctica for the period 1979–2015. We evaluate the results with available in situ weather observations, remote-sensing estimates of surface melt, and SMB estimates derived from radar and firn cores. Moreover, results are compared with those from a lower-resolution version, to assess the added value of the resolution. The high-resolution model resolves small-scale climate variability invoked by topography, such as the relatively warm conditions over ice-shelf grounding zones, and local wind speed accelerations. Surface melt and SMB are well reproduced by RACMO2. This dataset will prove useful for picking ice core locations, converting elevation changes to mass changes, for driving ocean, ice-sheet and coupled models, and for attributing changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and shelves to changes in atmospheric forcing

Sea level rise from West Antarctic mass loss significantly modified by large snowfall anomalies

Mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is dominated by glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), yet the impact of anomalous precipitation on the mass balance of the ASE is poorly known. Here we present a 25-year (1996–2021) record of ASE input-output mass balance and evaluate how two periods of anomalous precipitation affected its sea level contribution. Since 1996, the ASE has lost 3331 ± 424 Gt ice, contributing 9.2 ± 1.2 mm to global sea level. Overall, surface mass balance anomalies contributed little (7.7%) to total mass loss; however, two anomalous precipitation events had larger, albeit short-lived, impacts on rates of mass change. During 2009–2013, persistently low snowfall led to an additional 51 ± 4 Gt yr−1 mass loss in those years (contributing positively to the total loss of 195 ± 4 Gt yr−1). Contrastingly, extreme precipitation in the winters of 2019 and 2020 decreased mass loss by 60 ± 16 Gt yr−1 during those years (contributing negatively to the total loss of 107 ± 15 Gt yr−1). These results emphasise the important impact of extreme snowfall variability on the short-term sea level contribution from West Antarctica

Local- and large-scale drivers of variability in the coastal freshwater budget of the Western Antarctic Peninsula

The west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a region of marked climatic variability, exhibiting strong changes in sea ice extent, retreat of most of its glaciers, and shifts in the amount and form of precipitation. These changes can have significant impacts on the oceanic freshwater budget and marine biogeochemical processes; it is thus important to ascertain the relative balance of the drivers, and the spatial scales over which they operate. We present a novel 7‐year summer‐season (October to March; 2011 to 2018) series of oxygen isotopes in seawater (δ18O), augmented with some winter sampling, collected adjacent to Anvers Island at the WAP. These data are used to attribute oceanic freshwater changes to sea ice and meteoric sources, and to deduce information on the spatial scales over which the changes are driven. Sea ice melt shows significant seasonality (∼9% range) and marked interannual changes, with pronounced maxima in seasons 2013/14 and 2016/17. Both of these extrema are driven by anomalous winds, but reflect strongly contrasting dynamic and thermodynamic sea ice responses. Meteoric water also shows seasonality (∼7% range), with interannual variability reflecting changes in the input of accumulated precipitation and glacial melt to the ocean. Unlike sea ice melt, meteoric water extremes are especially pronounced in thin (<10 m) surface layers close to the proximate glacier, associated with enhanced ocean stratification. Isotopic tracers help to deconvolve the complex spatio‐temporal scales inherent in the coastal freshwater budget, and hence improve knowledge of the separate and cumulative physical and ecological impacts

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise1,2, and it is expected to be so in the future3. Although increases in glacier flow4–6 and surface melting7–9 have been driven by oceanic10–12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. Although the ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 335 ± 62 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,800 ± 339 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.6 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,971 ± 555 billion tonnes (52%) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,827 ± 538 billion tonnes (48%) of ice loss was due to increased glacier discharge, which rose from 41 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. Between 2013 and 2017, the total rate of ice loss slowed to 217 ± 32 billion tonnes per year, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and as ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 50 to 120 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate

Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020

Ice losses from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have accelerated since the 1990s, accounting for a significant increase in the global mean sea level. Here, we present a new 29-year record of ice sheet mass balance from 1992 to 2020 from the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE). We compare and combine 50 independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from satellite observations of temporal changes in ice sheet flow, in ice sheet volume, and in Earth's gravity field. Between 1992 and 2020, the ice sheets contributed 21.0±1.9g€¯mm to global mean sea level, with the rate of mass loss rising from 105g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 between 1992 and 1996 to 372g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 between 2016 and 2020. In Greenland, the rate of mass loss is 169±9g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 between 1992 and 2020, but there are large inter-annual variations in mass balance, with mass loss ranging from 86g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 in 2017 to 444g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 in 2019 due to large variability in surface mass balance. In Antarctica, ice losses continue to be dominated by mass loss from West Antarctica (82±9g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1) and, to a lesser extent, from the Antarctic Peninsula (13±5g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1). East Antarctica remains close to a state of balance, with a small gain of 3±15g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1, but is the most uncertain component of Antarctica's mass balance. The dataset is publicly available at 10.5285/77B64C55-7166-4A06-9DEF-2E400398E452 (IMBIE Team, 2021)