An Updated Assessment of the Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover

Sea ice is an essential component of the Arctic climate system. The Arctic sea ice cover has undergone substantial changes in the past 40+ years, including decline in areal extent in all months (strongest during summer), thinning, loss of multiyear ice cover, earlier melt onset and ice retreat, and later freeze-up and ice advance. In the past 10 years, these trends have been further reinforced, though the trends (not statistically significant at p <0.05) in some parameters (e.g., extent) over the past decade are more moderate. Since 2011, observing capabilities have improved significantly, including collection of the first basin-wide routine observations of sea ice freeboard and thickness by radar and laser altimeters (except during summer). In addition, data from a year-long field campaign during 2019–2020 promises to yield a bounty of in situ data that will vastly improve understanding of small-scale processes and the interactions between sea ice, the ocean, and the atmosphere, as well as provide valuable validation data for satellite missions. Sea ice impacts within the Arctic are clear and are already affecting humans as well as flora and fauna. Impacts outside of the Arctic, while garner-ing much attention, remain unclear. The future of Arctic sea ice is dependent on future CO2 emissions, but a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely in the coming decades. However, year-to-year variability causes considerable uncertainty on exactly when this will happen. The variability is also a challenge for seasonal prediction

Record winter winds in 2020/21 drove exceptional Arctic sea ice transport

AbstractThe volume of Arctic sea ice is in decline but exhibits high interannual variability, which is driven primarily by atmospheric circulation. Through analysis of satellite-derived ice products and atmospheric reanalysis data, we show that winter 2020/21 was characterised by anomalously high sea-level pressure over the central Arctic Ocean, which resulted in unprecedented anticyclonic winds over the sea ice. This atmospheric circulation pattern drove older sea ice from the central Arctic Ocean into the lower-latitude Beaufort Sea, where it is more vulnerable to melting in the coming warm season. We suggest that this unusual atmospheric circulation may potentially lead to unusually high summer losses of the Arctic’s remaining store of old ice.</jats:p

Detecting failure of climate predictions

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055

Expression of ABC Efflux Transporters in Placenta from Women with Insulin-Managed Diabetes

Drug efflux transporters in the placenta can significantly influence the materno-fetal transfer of a diverse array of drugs and other xenobiotics. To determine if clinically important drug efflux transporter expression is altered in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM-I) or type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM-I), we compared the expression of multidrug resistance protein 1 (MDR1), multidrug resistance-associated protein 2 (MRP2) and the breast cancer resistance protein (BCRP) via western blotting and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction in samples obtained from insulin-managed diabetic pregnancies to healthy term-matched controls. At the level of mRNA, we found significantly increased expression of MDR1 in the GDM-I group compared to both the T1DM-I (p<0.01) and control groups (p<0.05). Significant changes in the placental protein expression of MDR1, MRP2, and BCRP were not detected (p>0.05). Interestingly, there was a significant, positive correlation observed between plasma hemoglobin A1c levels (a retrospective marker of glycemic control) and both BCRP protein expression (r = 0.45, p<0.05) and BCRP mRNA expression (r = 0.58, p<0.01) in the insulin-managed DM groups. Collectively, the data suggest that the expression of placental efflux transporters is not altered in pregnancies complicated by diabetes when hyperglycemia is managed; however, given the relationship between BCRP expression and plasma hemoglobin A1c levels it is plausible that their expression could change in poorly managed diabetes

HIV Delays IFN-α Production from Human Plasmacytoid Dendritic Cells and Is Associated with SYK Phosphorylation

Plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDC) are the major producers of type I interferons (IFNs) in humans and rapidly produce IFN-α in response to virus exposure. Although HIV infection is associated with pDC activation, it is unclear why the innate immune response is unable to effectively control viral replication. We systematically compared the effect of HIV, Influenza, Sendai, and HSV-2 at similar target cell multiplicity of infection (M.O.I.) on human pDC function. We found that Influenza, Sendai, HSV-2 and imiquimod are able to rapidly induce IFN-α production within 4 hours to maximal levels, whereas HIV had a delayed induction that was maximal only after 24 hours. In addition, maximal IFN-α induction by HIV was at least 10 fold less than that of the other viruses in the panel. HIV also induced less TNF-α and MIP-1β but similar levels of IP-10 compared to other viruses, which was also mirrored by delayed upregulation of pDC activation markers CD83 and CD86. BDCA-2 has been identified as an inhibitory receptor on pDC, signaling through a pathway that involves SYK phosphorylation. We find that compared to Influenza, HIV induces the activation of the SYK pathway. Thus, HIV delays pDC IFN-α production and pDC activation via SYK phosphorylation, allowing establishment of viral populations

Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate

Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. However, most observed trends are not unusual when compared with Antarctic paleoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability likely overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response

Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this recordThe decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.J.A.S. and R.B. were funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P006760/1). C.D. acknowledges the National Science Foundation (NSF), which sponsors the National Center for Atmospheric Research. D.M.S. was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and the APPLICATE project, which is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme. X.Z. was supported by the NSF (ARC#1023592). P.J.K. and K.E.M. were supported by the Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution Network, which is funded by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada. T.O. was funded by Environment and Climate Change Canada (GCXE17S038). L.S. was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Program Office