Microbiology in nuclear waste disposal: interfaces and reaction fronts

It is now generally acknowledged that microbial populations will be present within nuclear waste repositories and that the consequences of such activity on repository performance must be assessed. Various modelling approaches - based either on mass balance/thermodynamics or on kinetics - have been developed to provide scoping estimates of the possible development of these populations. Past work has focused on particular areas of the repository which can be considered relatively homogeneous and hence can be represented by some kind of ‘box' or ‘mixing tank'. In reality, however, waste repositories include a range of engineering materials (steel, concrete, etc.) which are emplaced at depth in a rock formation. Strong chemical gradients - of the type which may be exploited by lithoautotrophic microbial populations - are likely to be found at the contacts between different materials and at the interface between the engineered structures and the host rock. Over the long timescales considered, solute transport processes will cause the locations of strong chemical gradients to move, forming reaction fronts. The high-pH plume resulting from the leaching of cement/concrete in some repository types is a particularly important example of such a reaction front. Redox fronts, which may occur in different areas of all kinds of repositories, also play an important role and would be locations where microbial activity is likely to be significant. In this paper, the key microbial processes expected at (or around) interfaces and fronts will be discussed, with particular emphasis on the development of quantitative models. The applicability of the models used will be tested by considering similar fronts which can be found in natural system

Emulation and History Matching using the hmer Package

Modelling complex real-world situations such as infectious diseases, geological phenomena, and biological processes can present a dilemma: the computer model (referred to as a simulator) needs to be complex enough to capture the dynamics of the system, but each increase in complexity increases the evaluation time of such a simulation, making it difficult to obtain an informative description of parameter choices that would be consistent with observed reality. While methods for identifying acceptable matches to real-world observations exist, for example optimisation or Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, they may result in non-robust inferences or may be infeasible for computationally intensive simulators. The techniques of emulation and history matching can make such determinations feasible, efficiently identifying regions of parameter space that produce acceptable matches to data while also providing valuable information about the simulator's structure, but the mathematical considerations required to perform emulation can present a barrier for makers and users of such simulators compared to other methods. The hmer package provides an accessible framework for using history matching and emulation on simulator data, leveraging the computational efficiency of the approach while enabling users to easily match to, visualise, and robustly predict from their complex simulators.Comment: 40 pages, 11 figures; submitted to Journal of Statistical Software: author order correcte

Improving ART programme retention and viral suppression are key to maximising impact of treatment as prevention - a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS calls for fewer than 500,000 new HIV infections/year by 2020, with treatment-as-prevention being a key part of their strategy for achieving the target. A better understanding of the contribution to transmission of people at different stages of the care pathway can help focus intervention services at populations where they may have the greatest effect. We investigate this using Uganda as a case study. METHODS: An individual-based HIV/ART model was fitted using history matching. 100 model fits were generated to account for uncertainties in sexual behaviour, HIV epidemiology, and ART coverage up to 2015 in Uganda. A number of different ART scale-up intervention scenarios were simulated between 2016 and 2030. The incidence and proportion of transmission over time from people with primary infection, post-primary ART-naïve infection, and people currently or previously on ART was calculated. RESULTS: In all scenarios, the proportion of transmission by ART-naïve people decreases, from 70% (61%-79%) in 2015 to between 23% (15%-40%) and 47% (35%-61%) in 2030. The proportion of transmission by people on ART increases from 7.8% (3.5%-13%) to between 14% (7.0%-24%) and 38% (21%-55%). The proportion of transmission by ART dropouts increases from 22% (15%-33%) to between 31% (23%-43%) and 56% (43%-70%). CONCLUSIONS: People who are currently or previously on ART are likely to play an increasingly large role in transmission as ART coverage increases in Uganda. Improving retention on ART, and ensuring that people on ART remain virally suppressed, will be key in reducing HIV incidence in Uganda

Effect of a Web-Based Behavior Change Program on Weight Loss and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Overweight and Obese Adults at High Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease: Randomized Controlled Trial.

Web-based programs are a potential medium for supporting weight loss because of their accessibility and wide reach. Research is warranted to determine the shorter- and longer-term effects of these programs in relation to weight loss and other health outcomes

Modifying Hofstee standard setting for assessments that vary in difficulty, and to determine boundaries for different levels of achievement.

BACKGROUND: Fixed mark grade boundaries for non-linear assessment scales fail to account for variations in assessment difficulty. Where assessment difficulty varies more than ability of successive cohorts or the quality of the teaching, anchoring grade boundaries to median cohort performance should provide an effective method for setting standards. METHODS: This study investigated the use of a modified Hofstee (MH) method for setting unsatisfactory/satisfactory and satisfactory/excellent grade boundaries for multiple choice question-style assessments, adjusted using the cohort median to obviate the effect of subjective judgements and provision of grade quotas. RESULTS: Outcomes for the MH method were compared with formula scoring/correction for guessing (FS/CFG) for 11 assessments, indicating that there were no significant differences between MH and FS/CFG in either the effective unsatisfactory/satisfactory grade boundary or the proportion of unsatisfactory graded candidates (p > 0.05). However the boundary for excellent performance was significantly higher for MH (p < 0.01), and the proportion of candidates returned as excellent was significantly lower (p < 0.01). MH also generated performance profiles and pass marks that were not significantly different from those given by the Ebel method of criterion-referenced standard setting. CONCLUSIONS: This supports MH as an objective model for calculating variable grade boundaries, adjusted for test difficulty. Furthermore, it easily creates boundaries for unsatisfactory/satisfactory and satisfactory/excellent performance that are protected against grade inflation. It could be implemented as a stand-alone method of standard setting, or as part of the post-examination analysis of results for assessments for which pre-examination criterion-referenced standard setting is employed

A questionnaire-wide association study of personality and mortality:The Vietnam Experience Study

OBJECTIVE: We examined the association between the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) and all-cause mortality in 4462 middle-aged Vietnam-era veterans.METHODS: We split the study population into half-samples. In each half, we used proportional hazards (Cox) regression to test the 550 MMPI items' associations with mortality over 15years. In all participants, we subjected significant (p&lt;.01) items in both halves to principal-components analysis (PCA). We used Cox regression to test whether these components predicted mortality when controlling for other predictors (demographics, cognitive ability, health behaviors, and mental/physical health).RESULTS: Eighty-nine items were associated with mortality in both half-samples. PCA revealed Neuroticism/Negative Affectivity, Somatic Complaints, Psychotic/Paranoia, and Antisocial components, and a higher-order component, Personal Disturbance. Individually, Neuroticism/Negative Affectivity (HR=1.55; 95% CI=1.39, 1.72), Somatic Complaints (HR=1.66; 95% CI=1.52, 1.80), Psychotic/Paranoid (HR=1.44; 95% CI=1.32, 1.57), Antisocial (HR=1.79; 95% CI=1.59, 2.01), and Personal Disturbance (HR=1.74; 95% CI=1.58, 1.91) were associated with risk. Including covariates attenuated these associations (28.4 to 54.5%), though they were still significant. After entering Personal Disturbance into models with each component, Neuroticism/Negative Affectivity and Somatic Complaints were significant, although Neuroticism/Negative Affectivity's were now protective (HR=0.73; 95% CI=0.58, 0.92). When the four components were entered together with or without covariates, Somatic Complaints and Antisocial were significant risk factors.CONCLUSIONS: Somatic Complaints and Personal Disturbance are associated with increased mortality risk. Other components' effects varied as a function of variables in the model

Using formative research to develop the healthy eating component of the CHANGE! school-based curriculum intervention

Background: Childhood obesity is a significant public health concern. Many intervention studies have attempted to combat childhood obesity, often in the absence of formative or preparatory work. This study describes the healthy eating component of the formative phase of the Children’s Health Activity and Nutrition: Get Educated! (CHANGE!) project. The aim of the present study was to gather qualitative focus group and interview data regarding healthy eating particularly in relation to enabling and influencing factors, barriers and knowledge in children and adults (parents and teachers) from schools within the CHANGE! programme to provide populationspecific evidence to inform the subsequent intervention design. Methods: Semi-structured focus group interviews were conducted with children, parents and teachers across 11 primary schools in the Wigan borough of North West England. Sixty children (N = 24 boys), 33 parents (N = 4 male) and 10 teachers (N = 4 male) participated in the study. Interview questions were structured around the PRECEDE phases of the PRECEDE-PROCEED model. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using the pen-profiling technique. Results: The pen-profiles revealed that children’s knowledge of healthy eating was generally good, specifically many children were aware that fruit and vegetable consumption was ‘healthy’ (N = 46). Adults’ knowledge was also good, including restricting fatty foods, promoting fruit and vegetable intake, and maintaining a balanced diet. The important role parents play in children’s eating behaviours and food intake was evident. The emerging themes relating to barriers to healthy eating showed that external drivers such as advertising, the preferred sensory experience of “unhealthy” foods, and food being used as a reward may play a role in preventing healthy eating. Conclusions: Data suggest that; knowledge related to diet composition was not a barrier per se to healthy eating, and education showing how to translate knowledge into behavior or action is required. The key themes that emerged through the focus groups and pen-profiling data analysis technique will be used to inform and tailor the healthy eating component of the CHANGE! intervention study. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN03863885 Keywords: Nutrition, Childhood obesity, Pen-profiles, Health, School

Combining vitamin C and carotenoid biomarkers better predicts fruit and vegetable intake than individual biomarkers in dietary intervention studies.

The aim of this study was to determine whether combining potential biomarkers of fruit and vegetables is better at predicting FV intake within FV intervention studies than single biomarkers