Threshold effects of air pollution and climate change on understory plant communities at forested sites in the eastern United States

Forest understory plant communities in the eastern United States are often diverse and are potentially sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric inputs of nitrogen caused by air pollution. In recent years, empirical and processed-based mathematical models have been developed to investigate such changes in plant communities. In the study reported here, a robust set of understory vegetation response functions (expressed as version 2 of the Probability of Occurrence of Plant Species model for the United States [US-PROPS v2]) was developed based on observations of forest understory and grassland plant species presence/absence and associated abiotic characteristics derived from spatial datasets. Improvements to the US-PROPS model, relative to version 1, were mostly focused on inclusion of additional input data, development of custom species-level input datasets, and implementation of methods to address uncertainty. We investigated the application of US-PROPS v2 to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, and climate change on forest ecosystems at three forested sites located in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee in the eastern United States. Species-level N and S critical loads (CLs) were determined under ambient deposition at all three modeled sites. The lowest species-level CLs of N deposition at each site were between 2 and 11 kg N/ha/yr. Similarly, the lowest CLs of S deposition, based on the predicted soil pH response, were less than 2 kg S/ha/yr among the three sites. Critical load exceedance was found at all three model sites. The New Hampshire site included the largest percentage of species in exceedance. Simulated warming air temperature typically resulted in lower maximum occurrence probability, which contributed to lower CLs of N and S deposition. The US-PROPS v2 model, together with the PROPS-CLF model to derive CL functions, can be used to develop site-specific CLs for understory plants within broad regions of the United States. This study demonstrates that species-level CLs of N and S deposition are spatially variable according to the climate, light availability, and soil characteristics at a given location. Although the species niche models generally performed well in predicting occurrence probability, there remains uncertainty with respect to the accuracy of reported CLs. As such, the specific CLs reported here should be considered as preliminary estimates. Graphical abstrac

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Regionalization of soil base cation weathering for evaluating stream water acidification in the Appalachian Mountains, USA

Estimation of base cation supply from mineral weathering (BCw) is useful for watershed research and management. Existing regional approaches for estimating BCw require generalized assumptions and availability of stream chemistry data. We developed an approach for estimating BCw using regionally specific empirical relationships. The dynamic model MAGIC was used to calibrate BCw in 92 watersheds distributed across three ecoregions. Empirical relationships between MAGIC-simulated BCw and watershed characteristics were developed to provide the basis for regionalization of BCw throughout the entire study region. BCw estimates extracted from MAGIC calibrations compared reasonably well with BCw estimated by regression based on landscape characteristics. Approximately one-third of the study region was predicted to exhibit BCw rates less than 100 meq/m2/yr. Estimates were especially low for some locations within national park and wilderness areas. The regional BCw results are discussed in the context of critical loads (CLs) of acidic deposition for aquatic ecosystem protection

Effects of climate, land management, and sulfur deposition on soil base cation supply in national forests of the Southern Appalachian Mountains

Forest soils having low exchangeable calcium (Ca) and other nutrient base cation (BC) reserves may induce nutrient deficiencies in acid-sensitive plants and impact commercially important tree species. Past and future depletion of soil BC in response to acidic sulfur (S) deposition, forest management, and climate change alter the health and productivity of forest trees. This study used a process model (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments [MAGIC]) to address a number of questions related to soil BC status for a group of 65 streams and their watersheds in the southern Blue Ridge physiographic province of the southern Appalachian Mountains. Future S deposition to the study watersheds used for the Base Scenario was specified according to proposed reductions in S emissions at the time of this study, representing a reduction of 42 % of ambient S deposition by 2020. Twenty additional simulations were considered, reflecting four alternate S deposition scenarios (6 %, 58 %, 65 %, and 78 % reduction), and various changes in timber harvest, temperature, and precipitation. Base Scenario soil exchangeable Ca and % base saturation showed decreasing trends from 1860 to 2100. Changes in tree harvesting had the largest effect on stream sum of base cations (SBC) and soil BC supply. Each of the scenario projections indicated that median year 2100 soil exchangeable Ca will be at least 20 % lower than pre-industrial values. The simulations suggested that substantial mass loss of soil BC has already occurred since pre-industrial times. Nearly the same magnitude of BC loss is expected to occur over the next 145 years, even under relatively large additional future reductions in S deposition

Modeled vegetation community trajectories : Effects from climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and soil acidification recovery

Forest understory plant communities in the United States harbor most of the vegetation diversity of forests and are often sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N). As temperature increases from human-caused climate change and soils recover from long term atmospheric deposition of N and sulfur (S), it is unclear how these important ecosystem components will respond. We used the newly developed US-PROPS model – based on species response functions for over 1,500 species - to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric N deposition and climate change on species occurrence probability for a case study in the forested ecosystems of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM), an iconic park in the southeastern United States. We evaluated six future scenarios from various combinations of two potential recoveries of soil pH (no change, +0.5 pH units) and three climate futures (no change, +1.5, +3.0 deg C). Species critical loads (CLs) of N deposition and projected responses for each scenario were determined. Critical loads were estimated to be low (< 2 kg N/ha/yr) to protect all species under current and expected future conditions across broad regions of GRSM and these CLs were exceeded at large spatial extents among scenarios. Northern hardwood, yellow pine, and chestnut oak forests were among the most N-sensitive vegetation map classes found within GRSM. Potential future air temperature conditions generally led to decreases in the maximum occurrence probability for species. Therefore, CLs were considered “unattainable” in these situations because the specified level of protection used for CL determination (i.e., maximum occurrence probability under ambient conditions) was not attainable. Although some species showed decreases in maximum occurrence probability with simulated increases in soil pH, most species were favored by increased pH. The importance of our study is rooted in the methodology described here for establishing regional CLs and for evaluating future conditions, which is transferable to other national parks in the U.S. and in Europe where the original PROPS model was developed

US-PROPS: Regional Application to Great Smoky Mountains National Park (McDonnell et al. 2022)

This dataset is the data and metadata associated with the application of the US-PROPS model to the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP). It is a geodatabase of species and vegetation classes across the GSMNP and describes the distribution of species, critical loads of different vegetation classes, and the changes in the occurrence probabilities for different scenarios explored. Users should start with the "Dataset_Descriptions.docx" file, and read McDonnell et al. (2022) for context (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666765722001065). McDonnell, T.C., Clark, C.M., Reinds, G.J., Sullivan, T.J. and Knees, B., 2022. Modeled vegetation community trajectories: Effects from climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and soil acidification recovery. Environmental Advances, p.100271

Target loads of atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition for protection of acid-sensitive aquatic resources in the Adirondack Mountains, New York

[1] The dynamic watershed acid-base chemistry model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC) was used to calculate target loads (TLs) of atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition expected to be protective of aquatic health in lakes in the Adirondack ecoregion of New York. The TLs were calculated for two future dates (2050 and 2100) and three levels of protection against lake acidification (acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) of 0, 20, and 50 μeq L−1). Regional sulfur and nitrogen deposition estimates were combined with TLs to calculate exceedances. Target load results, and associated exceedances, were extrapolated to the regional population of Adirondack lakes. About 30% of Adirondack lakes had simulated TL of sulfur deposition less than 50 meq m−2 yr to protect lake ANC to 50 μeq L−1. About 600 Adirondack lakes receive ambient sulfur deposition that is above this TL, in some cases by more than a factor of 2. Some critical criteria threshold values were simulated to be unobtainable in some lakes even if sulfur deposition was to be decreased to zero and held at zero until the specified endpoint year. We also summarize important lessons for the use of target loads in the management of acid-impacted aquatic ecosystems, such as those in North America, Europe, and Asia

HST solar array impact survey: Revised damage laws and residue analysis

This report presents results of the analysis of impact features on the retrieved Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array and compares them to similar data from EURECA. The post-flight meteoroid/debris investigation programmes included optical surveys of all outer surfaces, impact residue analyses and hypervelocity calibration tests on MLI and solar array samples. Observed crater sizes range from about 2 mu m to 6-7 mm. On the HST solar array impact fluxes at the same crater pit diameter are higher than for EURECA for sizes exceeding about 200 mu m while they are comparable for smaller sizes. Impact fluxes on EURECA and RST do both exceed the 6 face averaged fluxes on LDEF, The residue analyses which were performed for EURECA MLI and HST solar array samples proved very difficult due to the complexity of the targets and they produced somewhat inconclusive results. Some results of hypervelocity impact calibration tests are presented. A comparison between the measured impact data and the predictions of present flux models is given. (C) 1997 COSPAR