Application of a stochastic snowmelt model for probabilistic decisionmaking

A stochastic form of the snowmelt runoff model that can be used for probabilistic decision-making was developed. The use of probabilistic streamflow predictions instead of single valued deterministic predictions leads to greater accuracy in decisions. While the accuracy of the output function is important in decisionmaking, it is also important to understand the relative importance of the coefficients. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis was made for each of the coefficients

Using Electricity on Ohio Farms

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Uncertainty Quantification of Future Design Rainfall Depths in Korea

One of the most common ways to investigate changes in future rainfall extremes is to use future rainfall data simulated by climate models with climate change scenarios. However, the projected future design rainfall intensity varies greatly depending on which climate model is applied. In this study, future rainfall Intensity???Duration???Frequency (IDF) curves are projected using various combinations of climate models. Future Ensemble Average (FEA) is calculated using a total of 16 design rainfall intensity ensembles, and uncertainty of FEA is quantified using the coefficient of variation of ensembles. The FEA and its uncertainty vary widely depending on how the climate model combination is constructed, and the uncertainty of the FEA depends heavily on the inclusion of specific climate model combinations at each site. In other words, we found that unconditionally using many ensemble members did not help to reduce the uncertainty of future IDF curves. Finally, a method for constructing ensemble members that reduces the uncertainty of future IDF curves is proposed, which will contribute to minimizing confusion among policy makers in developing climate change adaptation policies

Survivorship and Growth of Seedlings and Saplings in Urban Forests

Research in 1993, 2003, and 2013 showed high rates of tree mortality and low rates of recruitment (new trees) in Portland, Oregon’s Forest Park. To determine if the lack of young trees was an urban phenomenon, we added three control sites in the Mount Hood National Forest in 2013. Last summer, seedlings and saplings were measured at all sites in Forest Park, the Ancient Forest Preserve, and at the control sites. Seedlings are trees less than 2 meters tall, and saplings are trees greater than 2 meters tall but having a dbh of less than 10cm. The 2018 data was compared to that collected in 2013. We measured dbh (diameter at breast height) of saplings and the basal area for seedlings, as well as the tree height and the height of the lowest living branch. In 2018, the control sites had significantly more live trees, more coniferous trees, more shade tolerant trees, and more seedlings and saplings. We also found that the seedlings and saplings in 2018 had a greater diameter at the control sites than the urban sites. We found significantly more dead trees in 2018 than 2013 in Forest Park

Coralie McCuen to Mr. Meredith (2 October 1962)

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/mercorr_pro/1493/thumbnail.jp

Clinical Recommendations for Functional Ankle Instability Based Upon Best Practice Guidelines

Functional Ankle Instability is often the result of multiple previous lateral ankle sprains. Usually more than two lateral ankle sprains on the same ankle puts that ankle into a category of Functional Ankle Instability. The reoccurring lateral ankle sprains lead to Functional Ankle Instability, which is stated as being a feeling of instability, repeated episodes of giving way, weakness during physical activity, and self-reported disability (Hall, Docherty, Simon, Kingma, Klossner, 2015). Patients describe Functional Ankle Instability by saying that their ankle “gives way,” or that there is “weakness with function” (Hall, 2015). There are several questionnaires that allow for patients Functional Ankle Instability to be ranked. These questionnaires include the Functional Ankle Disability Index and the Cumberland. The exact number of people affected by Functional Ankle Instability is unknown, but multiple sources estimate that about half of people who have experienced a lateral ankle sprain go on to suffer from Functional Ankle Instability. This large number of patients creates an increase to insurance costs, as well as the utilization of resources within the clinic. Understanding the best treatment protocols for Functional Ankle Instability leads to the best outcomes for patients, which in turn helps ease the burden from both a clinical and a administrative aspect. Utilizing the most efficient treatment interventions leads to an increase in patient outcomes, which in turn leads to a decrease in the number of overall patient visits. Decreasing the number of overall visits lowers the amount of out of pocket costs for the patient

Relationship of physiography and snow area to stream discharge

The author has identified the following significant results. A comparison of snowmelt runoff models shows that the accuracy of the Tangborn model and regression models is greater if the test data falls within the range of calibration than if the test data lies outside the range of calibration data. The regression models are significantly more accurate for forecasts of 60 days or more than for shorter prediction periods. The Tangborn model is more accurate for forecasts of 90 days or more than for shorter prediction periods. The Martinec model is more accurate for forecasts of one or two days than for periods of 3,5,10, or 15 days. Accuracy of the long-term models seems to be independent of forecast data. The sufficiency of the calibration data base is a function not only of the number of years of record but also of the accuracy with which the calibration years represent the total population of data years. Twelve years appears to be a sufficient length of record for each of the models considered, as long as the twelve years are representative of the population