Index for the EU global climate change alliance plus flagship Initiative

This report proposes an index to allow an ex-ante evaluation of the structural features of vulnerability to climate change for the countries identified by the Global Climate Change Alliance plus Flagship Initiative (GCCA+). It is clear from the overarching goals of the GCCA+ programme, that to rank the countries according to eligibility for funding the following issues need to be considered: vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity, climate change mitigation action, disaster risk, and a (political) commitment to respond to climate change and poverty reduction. The GCCA+ index identifies those countries most vulnerable to climate change and ranks them according to their eligibility for funding within the context of the EU GCCA+ programme classifying 34 “fit for purpose indicators” along one of four components (natural hazards, exposure, vulnerability and capacity). The list 34 ‘fit-for-purpose’ indicators has been compiled on the basis of their relevance with the GCCA+ programme, and the compliance with the following criteria: reliable, open source, consistent, scientifically robust, with global coverage, and based on data which are in the public domain. The indicators cover the social, economic and environmental aspects of each of the components under which they have been classified. Each indicator is described in terms of relevance, measuring unit, indicator creation method, data source, periodicity, missing data and geographical distribution in the sample of countries for the latest available year. The methodology applied to calculate the GCCA+index adopts a climate resilient development approach integrating the development policy perspective with a climate change risk management approach. The index is applied to five different samples of countries. The results of ranking the countries by the GCCA+ Index are shown in maps and tables.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen

Global population‐weighted degree‐day projections for a combination of climate and socio‐economic scenarios

AbstractThe projected global temperature increase in the 21st century is expected to have consequences on energy consumption due to increase (decrease) in energy demand to cool (heat) the built environments. Such increase (decrease) also depends on the number of end users for such energy, thus it is crucial to include population into the analyses. This study presents population‐weighted (w) cooling (CDD), heating (HDD), and energy (EDD) degree‐day projections at global, regional, and local scales for the 21st century. We used a large ensemble of high‐resolution (0.44°) climate simulations from the COordinated Regional‐climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) to compute degree‐days for baseline (1981–2010) and global warming levels (GWLs from 1.5°C to 4°C), based on two representative concentration pathways. We used population projections from the NASA‐SEDAC datasets, driven by five socio‐economic scenarios (SSPs). The progressive increase in CDD outbalances the decrease in HDD in Central and South America, Africa, and Oceania and the opposite situation is likely to occur in North America, Europe, and Asia; at global scale, they are balanced. However, if results are weighted according to population, the increase in wCDD outbalances the decrease in wHDD almost everywhere for most GWLs and SSPs. Few regions show a decreasing tendency in wEDD at high GWLs for all SSPs: central Europe, northwestern, northeastern, and eastern Asia. Globally, wEDD are likely to double at 2°C compared to 1981–2010 independently of the SSP. Under the worst‐case scenario (SSP3), at 4°C wCDD are approximately 380% higher and wHDD approximately 30% lower than in the recent past, leading to an increase in wEDD close to 300%

2018 - Drought and Water Crisis in Southern Africa

The results presented in this short technical report are focused on the 2018 Water Crisis that affected the Western Cape Province in South Africa. In one side it includes an analysis carried out by the JRC´s "Disaster Risk Management" Unit and the Global Drought Observatory (GDO report), which periodically provides an overview of precipitation patterns and its anomalies, including also those related to vegetation greenness and soil moisture values respect to the long term average. In the other, it presents a complementary section carried out by the WEFE4DEV Work Package of the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) Project which contributes to the online African Atlas on WEFE Cooperation. The analysis is focused on the medium to long term spatio-temporal patterns and behaviour of precipitation and temperature patterns. Both help the community to better understand the exceptional character of these phonomena, their periodicity and the scale at which these events occur. The outcomes are helpful for policymakers to identify current and future issues that impact water management, food and energy security in Africa, as well as they providevaluable information to better define mitigation measures, resilience and adaptation policies.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

Exploiting light-based 3D-printing for the fabrication of mechanically enhanced, patient-specific aortic grafts

Despite polyester vascular grafts being routinely used in life-saving aortic aneurysm surgeries, they are less compliant than the healthy, native human aorta. This mismatch in mechanical behaviour has been associated with disruption of haemodynamics contributing to several long-term cardiovascular complications. Moreover, current fabrication approaches mean that opportunities to personalise grafts to the individual anatomical features are limited. Various modifications to graft design have been investigated to overcome such limitations; yet optimal graft functionality remains to be achieved. This study reports on the development and characterisation of an alternative vascular graft material. An alginate:PEGDA (AL:PE) interpenetrating polymer network (IPN) hydrogel has been produced with uniaxial tensile tests revealing similar strength and stiffness (0.39 ±0.05 MPa and 1.61 ±0.19 MPa, respectively) to the human aorta. Moreover, AL:PE tubular conduits of similar geometrical dimensions to segments of the aorta were produced, either via conventional moulding methods or stereolithography (SLA) 3D-printing. While both fabrication methods successfully demonstrated AL:PE hydrogel production, SLA 3D-printing was more easily adaptable to the fabrication of complex structures without the need of specific moulds or further post-processing. Additionally, most 3D-printed AL:PE hydrogel tubular conduits sustained, without failure, compression up to 50% their outer diameter and returned to their original shape upon load removal, thereby exhibiting promising behaviour that could withstand pulsatile pressure in vivo. Overall, these results suggest that this AL:PE IPN hydrogel formulation in combination with 3D-printing, has great potential for accelerating progress towards personalised and mechanically-matched aortic grafts

Assessing climate impact indicators:Evaluation criteria and observed strengths and weaknesses

This report documents and reviews a selected set of climate change and impact indicators. They are documented according to reference criteria that were based on a literature study and later refinement in expert discussions. Methodological description, data requirements and availability, treatment of uncertainty, fitness for purpose of indicator time series, and seven other relevant criteria are documented for a total of 81 climate change and impact related indicators. The indicators were grouped into three tiers that reflect their main purpose of use, ranging from change in climate variables to the socio-economic consequences of climate change. A key observation is the limited availability of indicators that explicitly link climate change with socio-economic phenomena. This might be explained by the complexity of the system that hinders quantitative attribution of economic and multi-level societal development to climatic factors. The strengths and weaknesses of indicators are discussed at a general level and also outlined both on an indicator-by-indicator basis and with respect to their potential uses. The report presents a consistent set of criteria and approaches for the incorporation of indicator information into climate information portals. The collected information on climate change and impact indicators can support the development of the Copernicus Climate Services and the indicators that such services will promote

Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs: a CORDEX‐based study

Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population, forests, croplands and pastures exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981–2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs: 1.5°C to 4°C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the SSP3 at GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (versus 1981–2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 at GWL4, approximately 2 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of forests and croplands (respectively, 6% and 11%) and 1.5 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI this extent will rise to 17 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of forests (49%), 6 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of pastures (78%) and 12 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of croplands (67%), being mid-latitudes the most affected. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change

Review and analysis of fire and explosion accidents in maritime transportation

The globally expanding shipping industry has several hazards such as collision, capsizing, foundering, grounding, stranding, fire, and explosion. Accidents are often caused by more than one contributing factor through complex interaction. It is crucial to identify root causes and their interactions to prevent and understand such accidents. This study presents a detailed review and analysis of fire and explosion accidents that occurred in the maritimetransportation industry during 1990–2015. The underlying causes of fire and explosion accidents are identified and analysed. This study also reviewed potential preventative measures to prevent such accidents. Additionally, this study compares properties of alternative fuels and analyses their effectiveness in mitigating fire and explosionhazards. It is observed that Cryogenic Natural Gas (CrNG), Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and methanol have properties more suitable than traditional fuels in mitigating fire risk and appropriate management of their hazards could make them a safer option to traditional fuels. However, for commercial use at this stage, there exist several uncertainties due to inadequate studies, and technological immaturity. This study provides an insight into fire and explosion accident causation and prevention, including the prospect of using alternative fuels for mitigating fire and explosion risks in maritime transportation

A new EO-BASED indicator for assessing and monitoring climate-related vegetation stress

This paper describes a study in which a new environmental indicator, called Annual Vegetation Stress (AVS), has been developed, based on annual anomalies of satellite-measured Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR ), and used to map the area affected annually by vegetation stress during the period 2003-2014, for 108 selected developing countries. Analysis of the results for six countries in the “tropical and subtropical forests” ecoregion, reveals good correspondence between high AVS values, and the occurrence of climatic extremes (droughts) and anthropogenic disturbance (deforestation). The results for Equatorial Guinea suggest that the recent trend of large-scale droughts and rainfall deficits in Central and Western Africa, contribute to increased vegetation stress in the region’s tropical rainforests. In East Timor there is evidence of a “biological lag” effect, whereby the main impacts of drought on the country’s seasonally dry tropical forests are delayed until the year following the climate event.JRC.D.6-Knowledge for Sustainable Development and Food Securit