A Bayesian integrated population dynamics model to analyze data for protected species

Managing wildlife-human interactions demands reliable information about the likely consequences of management actions. This requirement is a general one, whatever the taxonomic group. We describe a method for estimating population dynamics and decision analysis that is generally applicable, extremely flexible, uses data efficiently, and gives answers in a useful format. Our case study involves bycatch of a protected species, the Northeastern Offshore Spotted Dolphin (Stenella attenuata), in the tuna fishery of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Informed decision-making requires quantitative analyses taking all relevant information into account, assessing how bycatch affects these species and how regulations affect the fisheries, and describing the uncertainty in analyses. Bayesian analysis is an ideal framework for delivering information on uncertainty to the decision-making process. It also allows information from other populations or species or expert judgment to be included in the analysis, if appropriate. Integrated analysis attempts to include all relevant data for a population into one analysis by combining analyses, sharing parameters, and simultaneously estimating all parameters, using a combined objective function. It ensures that model assumptions and parameter estimates are consistent throughout the analysis, that uncertainty is propagated through the analysis, and that the correlations among parameters are preserved. Perhaps the most important aspect of integrated analysis is the way it both enables and forces consideration of the system as a whole, so that inconsistencies can be observed and resolved

A general framework for integrating environmental time series into stock assessment models: model description, simulation testing, and example

We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning

Modelo bayesiano integrado de dinámica de poblaciones para el análisis de datos de especies protegidas

La gestión de las interacciones que se producen entre la flora y fauna y los seres humanos requiere disponer de información fiable acerca de las consecuencias probables que generarán las acciones de gestión. Este requisito es de carácter general, con independencia del grupo taxonómico. En el presente artículo describimos un método para estimar parámetros de dinámica de poblaciones y de toma de decisiones, de aplicación general, extremadamente flexible, que utiliza datos de un modo eficiente y proporciona respuestas en un formato útil. Nuestro ejemplo está relacionado con la captura accidental de una especie protegida, el delfín moteado (Stenella attenuata), en las pesquerías de atún de la costa este del océano Pacífico. Una toma de decisiones bien fundamentada requiere disponer de análisis cuantitativos que tomen en consideración toda la información relevante, permitiendo evaluar cómo afecta la captura accidental a estas especies y cómo afecta la normativa a las pesquerías, además de describir la incertidumbre en los análisis. El análisis bayesiano constituye un marco idóneo para proporcionar información sobre la incertidumbre que acompaña al proceso de toma de decisiones. Además de ser adecuado, permite incluir información acerca de otras poblaciones o especies en los análisis, así como un criterio experto. El análisis integrado pretende incluir en un único proceso todos los datos relevantes de una población, combinando análisis, compartiendo parámetros y estimando el conjunto de dichos parámetros de forma simultánea mediante el empleo de una función objetiva combinada. También garantiza que las presuposiciones del modelo y las estimaciones de parámetros sean coherentes a lo largo de todo el análisis, que la incertidumbre se transmita a través del mismo, y que se mantengan las correlaciones entre los distintos parámetros. Quizá el aspecto más relevante del análisis integrado sea el modo en que permite y obliga a considerar el sistema como un todo, de forma que es posible observar y resolver las posibles contradicciones.Managing wildlife–human interactions demands reliable information about the likely consequences of management actions. This requirement is a general one, whatever the taxonomic group. We describe a method for estimating population dynamics and decision analysis that is generally applicable, extremely flexible, uses data efficiently, and gives answers in a useful format. Our case study involves bycatch of a protected species, the Northeastern Offshore Spotted Dolphin (Stenella attenuata), in the tuna fishery of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Informed decision–making requires quantitative analyses taking all relevant information into account, assessing how bycatch affects these species and how regulations affect the fisheries, and describing the uncertainty in analyses. Bayesian analysis is an ideal framework for delivering information on uncertainty to the decision–making process. It also allows information from other populations or species or expert judgment to be included in the analysis, if appropriate. Integrated analysis attempts to include all relevant data for a population into one analysis by combining analyses, sharing parameters, and simultaneously estimating all parameters, using a combined objective function. It ensures that model assumptions and parameter estimates are consistent throughout the analysis, that uncertainty is propagated through the analysis, and that the correlations among parameters are preserved. Perhaps the most important aspect of integrated analysis is the way it both enables and forces consideration of the system as a whole, so that inconsistencies can be observed and resolved

Multiple stressors in Southern Africa: the link between HIV/AIDS, food insecurity, poverty and children's vulnerability now and in the future

Several countries in Southern Africa now see large numbers of their population barely subsisting at poverty levels in years without shocks, and highly vulnerable to the vagaries of the weather, the economy and government policy. The combination of HIV/AIDS, food insecurity and a weakened capacity for governments to deliver basic social services has led to the region experiencing an acute phase of a long-term emergency. “Vulnerability” is a term commonly used by scientists and practitioners to describe these deteriorating conditions. There is particular concern about the “vulnerability” of children in this context and implications for children's future security. Through a review of literature and recent case studies, and using a widely accepted conceptualisation of vulnerability as a lens, we reflect on what the regional livelihoods crisis could mean for children's future wellbeing. We argue that an increase in factors determining the vulnerability of households — both through greater intensity and frequency of shocks and stresses (“external” vulnerability) and undermined resilience or ability to cope (“internal” vulnerability) — are threatening not only current welfare of children, but also their longer-term security. The two specific pathways we explore are (1) erosive coping strategies employed by families and individuals; and (2) their inability to plan for the future. We conclude that understanding and responding to this crisis requires looking at the complexity of these multiple stressors, to try to comprehend their interconnections and causal links. Policy and programme responses have, to date, largely failed to take into account the complex and multi-dimensional nature of this crisis. There is a misfit between the problem and the institutional response, as responses from national and international players have remained relatively static. Decisive, well-informed and holistic interventions are needed to break the potential negative cycle that threatens the future security of Southern Africa's children

The JCMT Gould Belt Survey: Evidence for radiative heating in Serpens MWC 297 and its influence on local star formation

We present SCUBA-2 450micron and 850micron observations of the Serpens MWC 297 region, part of the JCMT Gould Belt Survey of nearby star-forming regions. Simulations suggest that radiative feedback influences the star-formation process and we investigate observational evidence for this by constructing temperature maps. Maps are derived from the ratio of SCUBA-2 fluxes and a two component model of the JCMT beam for a fixed dust opacity spectral index of beta = 1.8. Within 40 of the B1.5Ve Herbig star MWC 297, the submillimetre fluxes are contaminated by free-free emission with a spectral index of 1.03+-0.02, consistent with an ultra-compact HII region and polar winds/jets. Contamination accounts for 73+-5 per cent and 82+-4 per cent of peak flux at 450micron and 850micron respectively. The residual thermal disk of the star is almost undetectable at these wavelengths. Young Stellar Objects are confirmed where SCUBA-2 850micron clumps identified by the fellwalker algorithm coincide with Spitzer Gould Belt Survey detections. We identify 23 objects and use Tbol to classify nine YSOs with masses 0.09 to 5.1 Msun. We find two Class 0, one Class 0/I, three Class I and three Class II sources. The mean temperature is 15+-2K for the nine YSOs and 32+-4K for the 14 starless clumps. We observe a starless clump with an abnormally high mean temperature of 46+-2K and conclude that it is radiatively heated by the star MWC 297. Jeans stability provides evidence that radiative heating by the star MWC 297 may be suppressing clump collapse.Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures, 7 table

The mental health of university students in the United Kingdom

There are increasing concerns globally about the mental health of students (Kadison,& Digeronimo, 2004). In the UK, the actual incidence of mental disturbance is unknown, although university counselling services report increased referrals (Association of University & College Counselling, 2011). This study assesses the levels of mental illness in undergraduate students to examine whether widening participation in education has resulted in increases as hypothesized by the UK Royal College of Psychiatrists (2003, 2011). Patterns of disturbance across years are compared to identify where problems arise. Students (N = 1197) completed the General Health Questionnaire-28 either on day one at university or midway through the academic year for first, second and third year students. Rates of mental illness in students equalled those of the general population but only 5.1% were currently receiving treatment. Second year students reported the most significant increases in psychiatric symptoms. Factors contributing to the problem are discussed

The JCMT Gould Belt Survey: A First Look at the Auriga–California Molecular Cloud with SCUBA-2

We present 850 and 450 μm observations of the dense regions within the Auriga–California molecular cloud using SCUBA-2 as part of the JCMT Gould Belt Legacy Survey to identify candidate protostellar objects, measure the masses of their circumstellar material (disk and envelope), and compare the star formation to that in the Orion A molecular cloud. We identify 59 candidate protostars based on the presence of compact submillimeter emission, complementing these observations with existing Herschel/SPIRE maps. Of our candidate protostars, 24 are associated with young stellar objects (YSOs) in the Spitzer and Herschel/PACS catalogs of 166 and 60 YSOs, respectively (177 unique), confirming their protostellar nature. The remaining 35 candidate protostars are in regions, particularly around LkHα 101, where the background cloud emission is too bright to verify or rule out the presence of the compact 70 μm emission that is expected for a protostellar source. We keep these candidate protostars in our sample but note that they may indeed be prestellar in nature. Our observations are sensitive to the high end of the mass distribution in Auriga–Cal. We find that the disparity between the richness of infrared star-forming objects in Orion A and the sparsity in Auriga–Cal extends to the submillimeter, suggesting that the relative star formation rates have not varied over the Class II lifetime and that Auriga–Cal will maintain a lower star formation efficiency

An asymmetrical whole-body birdcage RF coil without RF shield for hyperpolarized 129Xe lung MR imaging at 1.5 T

Purpose This study describes the development and testing of an asymmetrical xenon-129 (129Xe) birdcage radiofrequency (RF) coil for 129Xe lung ventilation imaging at 1.5 Tesla, which allows proton (1H) system body coil transmit–receive functionality. Methods The 129Xe RF coil is a whole-body asymmetrical elliptical birdcage constructed without an outer RF shield to enable 1H imaging. urn:x-wiley:07403194:media:mrm28915:mrm28915-math-0001 field homogeneity and flip angle mapping of the 129Xe birdcage RF coil and 1H system body RF coil with the 129Xe RF coil in situ were evaluated in the MR scanner. The functionality of the 129Xe birdcage RF coil was demonstrated through hyperpolarized 129Xe lung ventilation imaging with the birdcage in both transceiver configuration and transmit-only configuration when combined with an 8-channel 129Xe receive-only RF coil array. The functionality of 1H system body coil with the 129Xe RF coil in situ was demonstrated by acquiring coregistered 1H lung anatomical MR images. Results The asymmetrical birdcage produced a homogeneous urn:x-wiley:07403194:media:mrm28915:mrm28915-math-0002 field (±10%) in agreement with electromagnetic simulations. Simulations indicated an optimal detuning configuration with 4 diodes. The obtained g-factor of 1.4 for acceleration factor of R = 2 indicates optimal array configuration. Coregistered 1H anatomical images from the system body coil along with 129Xe lung images demonstrated concurrent and compatible arrangement of the RF coils. Conclusion A large asymmetrical birdcage for homogenous urn:x-wiley:07403194:media:mrm28915:mrm28915-math-0003 transmission with high sensitivity reception for 129Xe lung MRI at 1.5 Tesla has been demonstrated. The unshielded asymmetrical birdcage design enables 1H structural lung MR imaging in the same exam