Robust risk aggregation with neural networks

We consider settings in which the distribution of a multivariate random variable is partly ambiguous. We assume the ambiguity lies on the level of the dependence structure, and that the marginal distributions are known. Furthermore, a current best guess for the distribution, called reference measure, is available. We work with the set of distributions that are both close to the given reference measure in a transportation distance (e.g. the Wasserstein distance), and additionally have the correct marginal structure. The goal is to find upper and lower bounds for integrals of interest with respect to distributions in this set. The described problem appears naturally in the context of risk aggregation. When aggregating different risks, the marginal distributions of these risks are known and the task is to quantify their joint effect on a given system. This is typically done by applying a meaningful risk measure to the sum of the individual risks. For this purpose, the stochastic interdependencies between the risks need to be specified. In practice the models of this dependence structure are however subject to relatively high model ambiguity. The contribution of this paper is twofold: Firstly, we derive a dual representation of the considered problem and prove that strong duality holds. Secondly, we propose a generally applicable and computationally feasible method, which relies on neural networks, in order to numerically solve the derived dual problem. The latter method is tested on a number of toy examples, before it is finally applied to perform robust risk aggregation in a real world instance.Comment: Revised version. Accepted for publication in "Mathematical Finance

Vergleichbarkeit manueller und automatischer Haubenmesstechnik zur Erfassung des Ökosystem-CO2-Austauschs

Eine insbesondere für kleinräumige Parzellenversuche gut geeignete Methode zur Quantifizierung des Ökosystem-CO2-Austauschs basiert auf periodischen Messkampagnen mit einem manuellen non-flow-through non-steady-state Haubensystem (Livingston und Hutchinson 1995; Drösler 2005). Da die Datenlücken zwischen den einzelnen Messkampagnen durch Modellierung auf Basis kontinuierlicher Witterungsdaten geschlossen werden, hängt die Güte der Ergebnisse stark von der Frequenz der Messkampagnen und der Passfähigkeit der ermittelten Modellparameter für die Zeiträume zwischen den Kampagnen ab. Der Einsatz eines automatischen Mess-systems mit transparenten Hauben liefert fortlaufend hochaufgelöste Messdaten für den Netto-Ökosystemaustausch (NEE; tagsüber) und Ökosystematmung (Reco; nachts) und begrenzt die Modellierung auf kurze Zeiträume, in denen die Technik z.B. wegen Bewirtschaftungs-maßnahmen deinstalliert werden muss. Eine Kombination manuell und automatisch erhobener CO2-Flussraten wäre zur Erhöhung der Zuverlässigkeit der modellierten CO2-Austauschraten sinnvoll, erfordert jedoch Untersuchungen darüber, ob bzw. unter welchen Voraussetzungen das möglich ist. Ergebnisse von Vergleichsmessungen der beiden Messsysteme zu drei verschiedenen Terminen (2011/2012) zeigen, dass beide Messsysteme tagsüber (NEE) prinzipiell vergleichbare Ergebnisse liefern und somit eine NEE-Modellierung auf Basis kombinierter manuell und automatisch ermittelter CO2-Flussraten zulässig ist. Nachts (Reco) weist jedoch das manuelle Messsystem leicht höhere Flussraten als die automatischen Hauben auf, so dass die Messsysteme diesbezüglich nur eingeschränkt kombinierbar sind. Mögliche Ursachen der Differenzen sind in weiteren Versuchen zu analysieren

The Acidic Tail of the Cdc34 Ubiquitin-conjugating Enzyme Functions in Both Binding to and Catalysis with Ubiquitin Ligase SCFC^(dc4*)

Ubiquitin ligases, together with their cognate ubiquitin-conjugating enzymes, are responsible for the ubiquitylation of proteins, a process that regulates a myriad of eukaryotic cellular functions. The first cullin-RING ligase discovered, yeast SCF^(Cdc4), functions with the conjugating enzyme Cdc34 to regulate the cell cycle. Cdc34 orthologs are notable for their highly acidic C-terminal extension. Here we confirm that the Cdc34 acidic C-terminal tail has a role in Cdc34 binding to SCF^(Cdc4) and makes a major contribution to the submicromolar K_m of Cdc34 for SCF^(Cdc4). Moreover, we demonstrate that a key functional property of the tail is its acidity. Our analysis also uncovers an unexpected new function for the acidic tail in promoting catalysis. We demonstrate that SCF is functional when Cdc34 is fused to the C terminus of Cul1 and that this fusion retains partial function even when the acidic tail has been deleted. The Cdc34-SCF fusion proteins that lack the acidic tail must interact in a fundamentally different manner than unfused SCF and wild type Cdc34, demonstrating that distinct mechanisms of E2 recruitment to E3, as is seen in nature, can sustain substrate ubiquitylation. Finally, a search of the yeast proteome uncovered scores of proteins containing highly acidic stretches of amino acids, hinting that electrostatic interactions may be a common mechanism for facilitating protein assembly

Extrusion-based additive manufacturing of fungal-based composite materials using the tinder fungus Fomes fomentarius

Background: Recent efforts in fungal biotechnology aim to develop new concepts and technologies that convert renewable plant biomass into innovative biomaterials. Hereby, plant substrates become metabolized by filamentous fungi to transform them into new fungal-based materials. Current research is thus focused on both understanding and optimizing the biology and genetics underlying filamentous fungal growth and on the development of new technologies to produce customized fungal-based materials. Results: This manuscript reports the production of stable pastes, composed of Fomes fomentarius mycelium, alginate and water with 71 wt.% mycelium in the solid content, for additive manufacturing of fungal-based composite materials. After printing complex shapes, such as hollow stars with up to 39 mm in height, a combination of freeze-drying and calcium-crosslinking processes allowed the printed shapes to remain stable even in the presence of water. The printed objects show low bulk densities of 0.12 ± 0.01 g/cm3 with interconnected macropores. Conclusions: This work reports for the first time the application of mycelium obtained from the tinder fungus F. fomentarius for an extrusion-based additive manufacturing approach to fabricate customized light-weight 3D objects. The process holds great promise for developing light-weight, stable, and porous fungal-based materials that could replace expanded polystyrene produced from fossil resources.TU Berlin, Open-Access-Mittel - 202

Rapid Identification of Bio-Molecules Applied for Detection of Biosecurity Agents Using Rolling Circle Amplification

Detection and identification of pathogens in environmental samples for biosecurity applications are challenging due to the strict requirements on specificity, sensitivity and time. We have developed a concept for quick, specific and sensitive pathogen identification in environmental samples. Target identification is realized by padlock- and proximity probing, and reacted probes are amplified by RCA (rolling-circle amplification). The individual RCA products are labeled by fluorescence and enumerated by an instrument, developed for sensitive and rapid digital analysis. The concept is demonstrated by identification of simili biowarfare agents for bacteria (Escherichia coli and Pantoea agglomerans) and spores (Bacillus atrophaeus) released in field

Sicherung von Dämmen, Deichen und Stauanlagen : Handbuch für Theorie und Praxis ; Vol. V - 2015

Die Universität Siegen beschäftigt sich seit über 15 Jahren wissenschaftlich und im Bereich der anwendungsorientierten Forschung mit diesem Thema und hat dazu mittlerweile fünf Symposien durchgeführt. Mit der Veröffentlichung soll die langjährige Tradition als etablierte wissenschaftliche Plattform mit einem Wissensaustausch auf europäischer Ebene fortgesetzt werden. Die Bearbeitung dieser Thematik erfolgt auf der Basis der bewährten Kooperation zwischen Geotechnik und Wasserbau an der Universität Siegen. Aktuelle Ereignisse, wie z.B. die aus England oder Australien im Februar des Jahres 2014, machen uns aber auch deutlich, dass ein absoluter Schutz gegen Extremereignisse nicht möglich ist. Sie zeigen aber auch, dass dort wo technischer Hochwasserschutz konsequent umgesetzt wurde Schäden vermieden werden konnten. Wir sind nach den Ereignissen in den vergangenen Jahren aufgefordert wissenschaftlich noch leistungsfähigere und duktilere Systeme zu entwickeln. Weiter ist die Wissenschaft in der Pflicht, die Zivile Sicherheit im Hochwasser-schutz permanent zu bewerten, zu bearbeiten und ganzheitliche-interdisziplinäre und länderübergreifende Lösungen für die Zivilgesellschaft einzufordern

Nanoencapsulated capsaicin changes migration behavior and morphology of madin darby canine kidney cell monolayers

We have developed a drug delivery nanosystem based on chitosan and capsaicin. Both substances have a wide range of biological activities. We investigated the nanosystem’s influence on migration and morphology of Madin Darby canine kidney (MDCK-C7) epithelial cells in comparison to the capsaicin-free nanoformulation, free capsaicin, and control cells. For minimally-invasive quantification of cell migration, we applied label-free digital holographic microscopy (DHM) and single-cell tracking. Moreover, quantitative DHM phase images were used as novel stain-free assay to quantify the temporal course of global cellular morphology changes in confluent cell layers. Cytoskeleton alterations and tight junction protein redistributions were complementary analyzed by fluorescence microscopy. Calcium influx measurements were conducted to characterize the influence of the nanoformulations and capsaicin on ion channel activities. We found that both, capsaicin-loaded and unloaded chitosan nanocapsules, and also free capsaicin, have a significant impact on directed cell migration and cellular motility. Increase of velocity and directionality of cell migration correlates with changes in the cell layer surface roughness, tight junction integrity and cytoskeleton alterations. Calcium influx into cells occurred only after nanoformulation treatment but not upon addition of free capsaicin. Our results pave the way for further studies on the biological significance of these findings and potential biomedical applications, e.g. as drug and gene carriers

EuReCa ONE—27 Nations, ONE Europe, ONE Registry A prospective one month analysis of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest outcomes in 27 countries in Europe

AbstractIntroductionThe aim of the EuReCa ONE study was to determine the incidence, process, and outcome for out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) throughout Europe.MethodsThis was an international, prospective, multi-centre one-month study. Patients who suffered an OHCA during October 2014 who were attended and/or treated by an Emergency Medical Service (EMS) were eligible for inclusion in the study. Data were extracted from national, regional or local registries.ResultsData on 10,682 confirmed OHCAs from 248 regions in 27 countries, covering an estimated population of 174 million. In 7146 (66%) cases, CPR was started by a bystander or by the EMS. The incidence of CPR attempts ranged from 19.0 to 104.0 per 100,000 population per year. 1735 had ROSC on arrival at hospital (25.2%), Overall, 662/6414 (10.3%) in all cases with CPR attempted survived for at least 30 days or to hospital discharge.ConclusionThe results of EuReCa ONE highlight that OHCA is still a major public health problem accounting for a substantial number of deaths in Europe.EuReCa ONE very clearly demonstrates marked differences in the processes for data collection and reported outcomes following OHCA all over Europe. Using these data and analyses, different countries, regions, systems, and concepts can benchmark themselves and may learn from each other to further improve survival following one of our major health care events