Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs

Nutrient cycling in the lakes near the Syowa Station

第2回極域科学シンポジウム/第33回極域生物シンポジウム 11月18日（金） 統計数理研究所 3階リフレッシュフロ

Production and nutrient cycling in Antarctic lakes deciphered from stable isotope measurements

第3回極域科学シンポジウム/第34回極域生物シンポジウム 11月27日（火） 国立極地研究所 ３階ラウン

Assessing, quantifying and valuing the ecosystem services of coastal lagoons

The natural conservation of coastal lagoons is important not only for their ecological importance, but also because of the valuable ecosystem services they provide for human welfare and wellbeing. Coastal lagoons are shallow semi-enclosed systems that support important habitats such as wetlands, mangroves, salt-marshes and seagrass meadows, as well as a rich biodiversity. Coastal lagoons are also complex social-ecological systems with ecosystem services that provide livelihoods, wellbeing and welfare to humans. This study assessed, quantified and valued the ecosystem services of 32 coastal lagoons. The main findings of the study are: (i) the definitions of ecosystem services are still not generally accepted; (ii) the quantification of ecosystem services is made in many different ways, using different units; (iii) the evaluation in monetary terms of some ecosystem service is problematic, often relying on non-monetary evaluation methods; (iv) when ecosystem services are valued in monetary terms, this may represent very different human benefits; and, (v) different aspects of climate change, including increasing temperature, sea-level rise and changes in rainfall patterns threaten the valuable ecosystem services of coastal lagoons.DEVOTES project, from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration [308392]; networks and communities of Eurolag; Future Earth Coasts; SCOR; Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (FCT) Investigador Programme [IF/00331/2013]; Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia [UID/MAR/04292/2013]; CESAM by FCT/MEC national funds (PIDDAC) [UID/AMB/50017/2013 - POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007638]; FEDER; European Commission, under the 7th Framework Programme through the collaborative research project LAGOONS [283157]; FCT [SFRH/BPD/107823/2015, SFRH/BPD/91494/2012

Diversity of Antarctic lakes from the perspective of nutrients in gap water of lake sediments and lake water

第2回極域科学シンポジウム/第33回極域生物シンポジウム 11月18日（金） 統計数理研究所 3階リフレッシュフロ

Nutrients in sediments as driving force behind Antarctic lake ecosystems

第3回極域科学シンポジウム/第34回極域生物シンポジウム 11月27日（火） 統計数理研究所 ３階セミナー

The California current system during the last 136,000 years : response of the North Pacific High to precessional forcing

Alkenone sea surface temperature (SST) records were generated from the Ocean Drilling Program's (ODP) Sites 1014 and 1016 to examine the response of the California Current System to global climate change during the last 136 ka. The temperature differences between these sites (ΔSSTNEP=SSTODP1014–SSTODP1016) reflected the intensity of the California Current and varied between 0.4 and 6.1 °C. A high ΔSSTNEP (weaker California Current) was found for late marine isotope stage (MIS) 2 and early MIS 5e, while a low ΔSSTNEP (stronger California Current) was detected for mid-MIS 5e and MIS 1. Spectral analysis indicated that this variation pattern dominated 23- (precession) and 30-ka periods. Comparison of the ΔSSTNEP and SST based on data from core MD01-2421 at the Japan margin revealed anti-phase variation; the high ΔSSTNEP (weakening of the California Current) corresponded to the low SST at the Japan margin (the southward displacement of the NW Pacific subarctic boundary), and vice versa. This variation was synchronous with a model prediction of the tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation behavior. These findings suggest that the intensity of the North Pacific High varied in response to precessional forcing, and also that the response has been linked with the changes of tropical ocean–atmosphere interactions