Progressive skin fibrosis is associated with a decline in lung function and worse survival in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis in the European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort.

Objectives To determine whether progressive skin fibrosis is associated with visceral organ progression and mortality during follow-up in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Methods We evaluated patients from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research database with dcSSc, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7, valid mRSS at 12±3 months after baseline and ≥1 annual follow-up visit. Progressive skin fibrosis was defined as an increase in mRSS >5 and ≥25% from baseline to 12±3 months. Outcomes were pulmonary, cardiovascular and renal progression, and all-cause death. Associations between skin progression and outcomes were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression. Results Of 1021 included patients, 78 (7.6%) had progressive skin fibrosis (skin progressors). Median follow-up was 3.4 years. Survival analyses indicated that skin progressors had a significantly higher probability of FVC decline ≥10% (53.6% vs 34.4%; p<0.001) and all-cause death (15.4% vs 7.3%; p=0.003) than non-progressors. These significant associations were also found in subgroup analyses of patients with either low baseline mRSS (≤22/51) or short disease duration (≤15 months). In multivariable analyses, skin progression within 1 year was independently associated with FVC decline ≥10% (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.65) and all-cause death (HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.31 to 5.09). Conclusions Progressive skin fibrosis within 1 year is associated with decline in lung function and worse survival in dcSSc during follow-up. These results confirm mRSS as a surrogate marker in dcSSc, which will be helpful for cohort enrichment in future trials and risk stratification in clinical practice

Racial differences in systemic sclerosis disease presentation: a European Scleroderma Trials and Research group study

Objectives. Racial factors play a significant role in SSc. We evaluated differences in SSc presentations between white patients (WP), Asian patients (AP) and black patients (BP) and analysed the effects of geographical locations.Methods. SSc characteristics of patients from the EUSTAR cohort were cross-sectionally compared across racial groups using survival and multiple logistic regression analyses.Results. The study included 9162 WP, 341 AP and 181 BP. AP developed the first non-RP feature faster than WP but slower than BP. AP were less frequently anti-centromere (ACA; odds ratio (OR) = 0.4, P < 0.001) and more frequently anti-topoisomerase-I autoantibodies (ATA) positive (OR = 1.2, P = 0.068), while BP were less likely to be ACA and ATA positive than were WP [OR(ACA) = 0.3, P < 0.001; OR(ATA) = 0.5, P = 0.020]. AP had less often (OR = 0.7, P = 0.06) and BP more often (OR = 2.7, P < 0.001) diffuse skin involvement than had WP.AP and BP were more likely to have pulmonary hypertension [OR(AP) = 2.6, P < 0.001; OR(BP) = 2.7, P = 0.03 vs WP] and a reduced forced vital capacity [OR(AP) = 2.5, P < 0.001; OR(BP) = 2.4, P < 0.004] than were WP. AP more often had an impaired diffusing capacity of the lung than had BP and WP [OR(AP vs BP) = 1.9, P = 0.038; OR(AP vs WP) = 2.4, P < 0.001]. After RP onset, AP and BP had a higher hazard to die than had WP [hazard ratio (HR) (AP) = 1.6, P = 0.011; HR(BP) = 2.1, P < 0.001].Conclusion. Compared with WP, and mostly independent of geographical location, AP have a faster and earlier disease onset with high prevalences of ATA, pulmonary hypertension and forced vital capacity impairment and higher mortality. BP had the fastest disease onset, a high prevalence of diffuse skin involvement and nominally the highest mortality

Mapping and predicting mortality from systemic sclerosis

Objectives To determine the causes of death and risk factors in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods Between 2000 and 2011, we examined the death certificates of all French patients with SSc to determine causes of death. Then we examined causes of death and developed a score associated with all-cause mortality from the international European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database. Candidate prognostic factors were tested by Cox proportional hazards regression model by single variable analysis, followed by a multiple variable model stratified by centres. The bootstrapping technique was used for internal validation. Results We identified 2719 French certificates of deaths related to SSc, mainly from cardiac (31%) and respiratory (18%) causes, and an increase in SSc-specific mortality over time. Over a median follow-up of 2.3 years, 1072 (9.6%) of 11 193 patients from the EUSTAR sample died, from cardiac disease in 27% and respiratory causes in 17%. By multiple variable analysis, a risk score was developed, which accurately predicted the 3-year mortality, with an area under the curve of 0.82. The 3-year survival of patients in the upper quartile was 53%, in contrast with 98% in the first quartile. Conclusion Combining two complementary and detailed databases enabled the collection of an unprecedented 3700 deaths, revealing the major contribution of the cardiopulmonary system to SSc mortality. We also developed a robust score to risk-stratify these patients and estimate their 3-year survival. With the emergence of new therapies, these important observations should help caregivers plan and refine the monitoring and management to prolong these patients' survival

Mapping and predicting mortality from systemic sclerosis

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Mapping and predicting mortality from systemic sclerosis

To determine the causes of death and risk factors in systemic sclerosis (SSc).status: publishe

Mapping and predicting mortality from systemic sclerosis

OBJECTIVES: To determine the causes of death and risk factors in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Between 2000 and 2011, we examined the death certificates of all French patients with SSc to determine causes of death. Then we examined causes of death and developed a score associated with all-cause mortality from the international European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database. Candidate prognostic factors were tested by Cox proportional hazards regression model by single variable analysis, followed by a multiple variable model stratified by centres. The bootstrapping technique was used for internal validation. RESULTS: We identified 2719 French certificates of deaths related to SSc, mainly from cardiac (31%) and respiratory (18%) causes, and an increase in SSc-specific mortality over time. Over a median follow-up of 2.3 years, 1072 (9.6%) of 11 193 patients from the EUSTAR sample died, from cardiac disease in 27% and respiratory causes in 17%. By multiple variable analysis, a risk score was developed, which accurately predicted the 3-year mortality, with an area under the curve of 0.82. The 3-year survival of patients in the upper quartile was 53%, in contrast with 98% in the first quartile. CONCLUSION: Combining two complementary and detailed databases enabled the collection of an unprecedented 3700 deaths, revealing the major contribution of the cardiopulmonary system to SSc mortality. We also developed a robust score to risk-stratify these patients and estimate their 3-year survival. With the emergence of new therapies, these important observations should help caregivers plan and refine the monitoring and management to prolong these patients' survival

Smoking in Systemic Sclerosis: a Longitudinal European Scleroderma Trials and Research Group Study

Objective: Data on the role of tobacco exposure in systemic sclerosis (SSc; scleroderma) severity and progression are scarce. We aimed to assess the effects of smoking on the evolution of pulmonary and skin manifestations, based on the European Scleroderma Trials and Research group database. Methods: Adult SSc patients with data on smoking history and a 12\u201324-month follow-up visit were included. Associations of severity and progression of organ involvement with smoking history and the Comprehensive Smoking Index were assessed using multivariable regression analyses. Results: A total of 3,319 patients were included (mean age 57 years, 85% female); 66% were never smokers, 23% were ex-smokers, and 11% were current smokers. Current smokers had a lower percentage of antitopoisomerase autoantibodies than previous or never smokers (31% versus 40% and 45%, respectively). Never smokers had a higher baseline forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) ratio than previous and current smokers (P < 0.001). The FEV1/FVC ratio declined faster in current smokers than in never smokers (P = 0.05) or ex-smokers (P = 0.01). The baseline modified Rodnan skin thickness score (MRSS) and the MRSS decline were comparable across smoking groups. Although heavy smoking (>25 pack-years) increased the odds of digital ulcers by almost 50%, there was no robust adverse association of smoking with digital ulcer development. Conclusion: The known adverse effect of smoking on bronchial airways and alveoli is also observed in SSc patients; however, robust adverse effects of smoking on the progression of SSc-specific pulmonary or cutaneous manifestations were not observed. \ua9 2018, American College of Rheumatolog

Incidence and predictors of cutaneous manifestations during the early course of systemic sclerosis: a 10-year longitudinal study from the EUSTAR database

Objectives: To longitudinally map the onset and identify risk factors for skin sclerosis and digital ulcers (DUs) in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) from an early time point after the onset of Raynaud's phenomenon (RP) in the European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort. Methods: 695 patients with SSc with a baseline visit within 1 year after RP onset were followed in the prospective multinational EUSTAR database. During the 10-year observation period, cumulative probabilities of cutaneous lesions were assessed with the Kaplan–Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors. Results: The median modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) peaked 1 year after RP onset, and was 15 points. The 1-year probability to develop an mRSS ≥2 in at least one area of the arms and legs was 69% and 25%, respectively. Twenty-five per cent of patients developed diffuse cutaneous involvement in the first year after RP onset. This probability increased to 36% during the subsequent 2 years. Only 6% of patients developed diffuse cutaneous SSc thereafter. The probability to develop DUs increased to a maximum of 70% at the end of the 10-year observation. The main factors associated with diffuse cutaneous SSc were the presence of anti-RNA polymerase III autoantibodies, followed by antitopoisomerase autoantibodies and male sex. The main factor associated with incident DUs was the presence of antitopoisomerase autoantibodies. Conclusion: Early after RP onset, cutaneous manifestations exhibit rapid kinetics in SSc. This should be accounted for in clinical trials aiming to prevent skin worsening

Joint and tendon involvement predict disease progression in systemic sclerosis: A EUSTAR prospective study

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether joint synovitis and tendon friction rubs (TFRs) can predict the progression of systemic sclerosis (SSc) over time. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study that included 1301 patients with SSc from the EUSTAR database with disease duration 643 years at inclusion and with a follow-up of at least 2 years. Presence or absence at clinical examination of synovitis and TFRs was extracted at baseline. Outcomes were skin, cardiovascular, renal and lung progression. Overall disease progression was defined according to the occurrence of at least one organ progression. RESULTS: Joint synovitis (HR: 1.26, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.59) and TFRs (HR: 1.32, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.70) were independently predictive of overall disease progression, as were also the diffuse cutaneous subset (HR: 1.30, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.61) and positive antitopoisomerase-I antibodies (HR: 1.25, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.53). Regarding skin progression, joint synovitis (HR: 1.67, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.64) and TFRs (HR: 1.69, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.77) were also independently predictive of worsening of the modified Rodnan skin score. For cardiovascular progression, joint synovitis was predictive of the occurrence of new digital ulcer(s) (HR: 1.45, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.96) and decreased left ventricular ejection fraction (HR: 2.20, 95% CI 1.06 to 4.57); TFRs were confirmed to be an independent predictor of scleroderma renal crisis (HR: 2.33, 95% CI 1.03 to 6.19). CONCLUSIONS: Joint synovitis and TFRs are independent predictive factors for disease progression in patients with early SSc. These easily detected clinical markers may be useful for the risk stratification of patients with SSc