Sensitivity Analysis as a Managerial Decision Making Tool

Decision making is an integral part of operations management. It may be useful to a decision maker to have some indication of how sensitive an alternative choice might be to the changes in one or more of those values. Unfortunately, it is not possible to explore all the possible combinations of all the variables in a typical problem. In spite of this, there are some elements that a decision maker can use to assess the sensitivity of assumption probabilities. One of the tools useful for the analysis in some decision making problems is sensitivity analysis. It provides a range of feasibility over which the choice of alternative remains the same. Successful decision making consists of several steps, the first and most important being carefully defining the problem. Given that linear problems can be extensive and complex, they are solved by using sophisticated computer methods. This paper will present software solutions available for personal computers (Lindo, POM). For a manager taking the decision, however, a solution model is only part of the answer. Sensitivity analysis offers a better understanding of the problem, different effects of limitations and “what if“ questions. The insights obtained are frequently much more valuable that a specific numerical answer. One of the advantages of linear programming lies in the fact that it provides rich information on sensitivity analysis as a direct part of the solution.feasibility range, linear programming, Lindo, POM, optimum solution, optimum range, sensitivity analysis.

Methodological Traffic Load Survey of the Road Sv. Leopolda Bogdana Mandica with a Queuing Model

The traffic in Osjecko–Baranjska County is strongly marked by the regional road named Sv. Leopolda Bogdana Mandica (so-called “Cepinska cesta”). With its high traffic density and specific significance, this road is negatively characterized by traffic jams, waiting, minor and major accidents. Statistical data for the Republic of Croatia indicate that this is one of the roads with the heaviest traffic load in the country. In an experimental study conducted using traffic, operational and statistical methods of measurement, the problem of Poisson queuing model with a single waiting point was recognized. High frequency of vehicles exceeds the expected and assumed number of clients in a queue, which increases the average waiting time in the queuing model. For this reason, stationary traffic counting is undertaken in order to establish the traffic load. These results, as well as those for waiting times, confirm it is necessary to propose a new traffic organization for this road, which would decrease avarage waiting times and eliminate unneccesary halts. This in turn would increase the flow rate and minimize negative traffic situations.traffic density, stationary traffic counting, peak periods, Poisson queuing model, rationalization, statistical analysis

Selection of Optimal Portfolio by Use of Risk Diversification Method

The paper will discuss how securities investors can protect themselves from risk through diversification. There will be proposals how investors should structure their portfolio, i.e. proposals of investment percentages for particular shares, in order to achieve stable solid returns at a low level of risk. The paper will analyze three types of stock: INA – Oil Industry Plc., IGH – Croatian Institute of Civil Engineering Plc. and Viro Sugar Factory Plc., which can be used to gain a better understanding of the investment business. We shall describe the basic tenets of modern portfolio theory so as to explicate some fundamental issues of securities investment and portfolio creation. The paper will provide an analysis of Markowitz’ theory as the origin of modern portfolio optimization theory, which in turn represents the starting point for securities investments.risk, diversification, Markowitz’ theory, decision making, securities analysis, programming.

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men

DataSheet1_Analysis of HIF-1α expression and genetic polymorphisms in human clear cell renal cell carcinoma.pdf

Introduction: Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is mostly diagnosed incidentally and has relatively high recurrence rates. Alterations in VHL/HIF and mTOR pathways are commonly present in ccRCC. The present study attempted to identify potential diagnostic markers at the biochemical and molecular level.Methods: In total, 54 subjects (36 patients with ccRCC and 18 cancer-free controls) were enrolled. ELISA was used to measure the levels of HIF-1α in the tumor and healthy kidney tissue. The association between five selected SNPs (rs779805, rs11549465, rs2057482, rs2295080 and rs701848) located in genes of pathologically relevant pathways (VHL/HIF and mTOR) and the risk of ccRCC in the Slovak cohort was studied using real-time PCR.Results: Significant differences in HIF-1α tissue levels were observed between the tumor and healthy kidney tissue (p Conclusion: More research is neccesary to elucidate the role of HIF-1α in the pathogenesis of ccRCC and the association between selected SNPs and susceptibility to this cancer.</p

Dominant {ARF}3 variants disrupt Golgi integrity and cause a neurodevelopmental disorder recapitulated in zebrafish

AbstractVesicle biogenesis, trafficking and signaling via Endoplasmic reticulum-Golgi network support essential developmental processes and their disruption lead to neurodevelopmental disorders and neurodegeneration. We report that de novo missense variants in ARF3, encoding a small GTPase regulating Golgi dynamics, cause a developmental disease in humans impairing nervous system and skeletal formation. Microcephaly-associated ARF3 variants affect residues within the guanine nucleotide binding pocket and variably perturb protein stability and GTP/GDP binding. Functional analysis demonstrates variably disruptive consequences of ARF3 variants on Golgi morphology, vesicles assembly and trafficking. Disease modeling in zebrafish validates further the dominant behavior of the mutants and their differential impact on brain and body plan formation, recapitulating the variable disease expression. In-depth in vivo analyses traces back impaired neural precursors’ proliferation and planar cell polarity-dependent cell movements as the earliest detectable effects. Our findings document a key role of ARF3 in Golgi function and demonstrate its pleiotropic impact on development

Paediatric COVID-19 mortality: a database analysis of the impact of health resource disparity

Background The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on paediatric populations varied between high-income countries (HICs) versus low-income to middle-income countries (LMICs). We sought to investigate differences in paediatric clinical outcomes and identify factors contributing to disparity between countries.Methods The International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 database was queried to include children under 19 years of age admitted to hospital from January 2020 to April 2021 with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis. Univariate and multivariable analysis of contributing factors for mortality were assessed by country group (HICs vs LMICs) as defined by the World Bank criteria.Results A total of 12 860 children (3819 from 21 HICs and 9041 from 15 LMICs) participated in this study. Of these, 8961 were laboratory-confirmed and 3899 suspected COVID-19 cases. About 52% of LMICs children were black, and more than 40% were infants and adolescent. Overall in-hospital mortality rate (95% CI) was 3.3% [=(3.0% to 3.6%), higher in LMICs than HICs (4.0% (3.6% to 4.4%) and 1.7% (1.3% to 2.1%), respectively). There were significant differences between country income groups in intervention profile, with higher use of antibiotics, antivirals, corticosteroids, prone positioning, high flow nasal cannula, non-invasive and invasive mechanical ventilation in HICs. Out of the 439 mechanically ventilated children, mortality occurred in 106 (24.1%) subjects, which was higher in LMICs than HICs (89 (43.6%) vs 17 (7.2%) respectively). Pre-existing infectious comorbidities (tuberculosis and HIV) and some complications (bacterial pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome and myocarditis) were significantly higher in LMICs compared with HICs. On multivariable analysis, LMIC as country income group was associated with increased risk of mortality (adjusted HR 4.73 (3.16 to 7.10)).Conclusion Mortality and morbidities were higher in LMICs than HICs, and it may be attributable to differences in patient demographics, complications and access to supportive and treatment modalities

Respiratory support in patients with severe COVID-19 in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection (ISARIC) COVID-19 study: a prospective, multinational, observational study

Background: Up to 30% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 require advanced respiratory support, including high-flow nasal cannulas (HFNC), non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIV), or invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics, outcomes and risk factors for failing non-invasive respiratory support in patients treated with severe COVID-19 during the first two years of the pandemic in high-income countries (HICs) and low middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods: This is a multinational, multicentre, prospective cohort study embedded in the ISARIC-WHO COVID-19 Clinical Characterisation Protocol. Patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who required hospital admission were recruited prospectively. Patients treated with HFNC, NIV, or IMV within the first 24 h of hospital admission were included in this study. Descriptive statistics, random forest, and logistic regression analyses were used to describe clinical characteristics and compare clinical outcomes among patients treated with the different types of advanced respiratory support. Results: A total of 66,565 patients were included in this study. Overall, 82.6% of patients were treated in HIC, and 40.6% were admitted to the hospital during the first pandemic wave. During the first 24 h after hospital admission, patients in HICs were more frequently treated with HFNC (48.0%), followed by NIV (38.6%) and IMV (13.4%). In contrast, patients admitted in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) were less frequently treated with HFNC (16.1%) and the majority received IMV (59.1%). The failure rate of non-invasive respiratory support (i.e. HFNC or NIV) was 15.5%, of which 71.2% were from HIC and 28.8% from LMIC. The variables most strongly associated with non-invasive ventilation failure, defined as progression to IMV, were high leukocyte counts at hospital admission (OR [95%CI]; 5.86 [4.83-7.10]), treatment in an LMIC (OR [95%CI]; 2.04 [1.97-2.11]), and tachypnoea at hospital admission (OR [95%CI]; 1.16 [1.14-1.18]). Patients who failed HFNC/NIV had a higher 28-day fatality ratio (OR [95%CI]; 1.27 [1.25-1.30]). Conclusions: In the present international cohort, the most frequently used advanced respiratory support was the HFNC. However, IMV was used more often in LMIC. Higher leucocyte count, tachypnoea, and treatment in LMIC were risk factors for HFNC/NIV failure. HFNC/NIV failure was related to worse clinical outcomes, such as 28-day mortality. Trial registration This is a prospective observational study; therefore, no health care interventions were applied to participants, and trial registration is not applicable