Varroa destructor reproduction and cell re-capping in mite-resistant Apis mellifera populations

Globalization has facilitated the spread of emerging pests such as the Varroa destructor mite, resulting in the near global distribution of the pest. In South African and Brazilian honey bees, mite-resistant colonies appeared within a decade; in Europe, mite-resistant colonies are rare, but several of these exhibited high levels of “re-capping” behavior. We studied re-capping in Varroa-naïve (UK/Australia) and Varroa-resistant (South Africa and Brazil) populations and found very low and very high levels, respectively, with the resistant populations targeting mite-infested cells. Furthermore, 54% of artificially infested A. m. capensis worker cells were removed after 10 days and 83% of the remaining infested cells were re-capped. Such targeted re-capping of drone cells did not occur. We propose that cell opening is a fundamental trait in mite-resistant populations and that re-capping is an accurate proxy for this behavior

Comparison of the EPIC Physical Activity Questionnaire with combined heart rate and movement sensing in a nationally representative sample of older British adults

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Machine Learning Approaches to Determine Feature Importance for Predicting Infant Autopsy Outcome

Introduction: Sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI) represents the commonest presentation of postneonatal death. We explored whether machine learning could be used to derive data driven insights for prediction of infant autopsy outcome. Methods: A paediatric autopsy database containing >7,000 cases, with >300 variables, was analysed by examination stage and autopsy outcome classified as ‘explained (medical cause of death identified)’ or ‘unexplained’. Decision tree, random forest, and gradient boosting models were iteratively trained and evaluated. Results: Data from 3,100 infant and young child (<2 years) autopsies were included. Naïve decision tree using external examination data had performance of 68% for predicting an explained death. Core data items were identified using model feature importance. The most effective model was XG Boost, with overall predictive performance of 80%, demonstrating age at death, and cardiovascular and respiratory histological findings as the most important variables associated with determining medical cause of death. Conclusion: This study demonstrates feasibility of using machine-learning to evaluate component importance of complex medical procedures (paediatric autopsy) and highlights value of collecting routine clinical data according to defined standards. This approach can be applied to a range of clinical and operational healthcare scenario

Moody's Correlated Binomial Default Distributions for Inhomogeneous Portfolios

This paper generalizes Moody's correlated binomial default distribution for homogeneous (exchangeable) credit portfolio, which is introduced by Witt, to the case of inhomogeneous portfolios. As inhomogeneous portfolios, we consider two cases. In the first case, we treat a portfolio whose assets have uniform default correlation and non-uniform default probabilities. We obtain the default probability distribution and study the effect of the inhomogeneity on it. The second case corresponds to a portfolio with inhomogeneous default correlation. Assets are categorized in several different sectors and the inter-sector and intra-sector correlations are not the same. We construct the joint default probabilities and obtain the default probability distribution. We show that as the number of assets in each sector decreases, inter-sector correlation becomes more important than intra-sector correlation. We study the maximum values of the inter-sector default correlation. Our generalization method can be applied to any correlated binomial default distribution model which has explicit relations to the conditional default probabilities or conditional default correlations, e.g. Credit Risk${}^{+}$, implied default distributions. We also compare some popular CDO pricing models from the viewpoint of the range of the implied tranche correlation.Comment: 29 pages, 17 figures and 1 tabl

Trackways of the American Crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in Northwestern Costa Rica: Implications for Crocodylian Ichnology

We documented trackways of free-living Crocodylus acutus on beaches at the mouths of Tamarindo and Ventanas estuaries, Costa Rica. Our crocodiles had estimated total lengths of 1–3 meters or more. Manus prints have five digits, with digits I–III bearing claw marks. Pes prints have four digits, with claw marks on digits I–III. The pes is plantigrade. Claws generally dig into the substrate. Apart from claw marks, digit I and the heel of the pes are usually the most deeply impressed parts of footprints. Trackways are wide-gauge. Pes prints are usually positioned just behind ipsilateral manus prints of the same set and may overlap them. Manus and pes prints angle slightly outward with respect to the crocodile’s direction of movement. Claw-bearing digits of both the manus and pes may create curved, concave-toward-the-midline drag marks as the autopodium is protracted. The tail mark varies in depth and clarity, and in shape from nearly linear to markedly sinuous. Sometimes the tail mark hugs the trackway midline, but sometimes it is closer to, or even cuts across, prints of one side. American crocodile footprints and trackways are similar to those observed in other extant crocodylian species, indicating substantial trackway conservatism across the grou

Amniotic fluid volume: Rapid MR-based assessment at 28-32 weeks gestation

Objectives: This work evaluates rapid magnetic resonance projection hydrography (PH) based amniotic fluid volume (AFV) estimates against established routine ultrasound single deepest vertical pocket (SDVP) and amniotic fluid index (AFI) measurements, in utero, at 28-32 weeks gestation. Manual multi-section planimetry (MSP) based measurement of AFV is used as a proxy reference standard. Methods: 35 women with a healthy singleton pregnancy (20-41 years) attending routine antenatal ultrasound were recruited. SDVP and AFI were measured using ultrasound, with same day MRI assessing AFV with PH and MSP. The relationships between the respective techniques were assessed using linear regression analysis and Bland-Altman method comparison statistics. Results: When comparing estimated AFV, a highly significant relationship was observed between PH and the reference standard MSP (R2=0.802, p<0.001). For the US measurements, SDVP measurement related most closely to amniotic fluid volume, (R2=0.470, p<0.001), with AFI demonstrating a weaker relationship (R2=0.208, p=0.007). Conclusion: This study shows that rapid MRI based PH measurement is a better predictor of AFV, relating more closely to our proxy standard than established US techniques. Although larger validation studies across a range of gestational ages are required this approach could form part of MR fetal assessment, particularly where poly or oligohydramnios is suspected.This study was supported by the National Institute of Health Research, Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. The authors also acknowledge the support of Addenbrooke’s Charitable Trust and thank the participants for their contribution to the study.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00330-015-4179-

Comprehensive molecular testing for respiratory pathogens in community-acquired pneumonia

Funding: This work was supported by the Chief Scientist Office (grant number ETM/250).Background. The frequent lack of a microbiological diagnosis in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) impairs pathogen-directed antimicrobial therapy. This study assessed the use of comprehensive multibacterial, multiviral molecular testing, including quantification, in adults hospitalized with CAP. Methods. Clinical and laboratory data were collected for 323 adults with radiologically-confirmed CAP admitted to 2 UK tertiary care hospitals. Sputum (96%) or endotracheal aspirate (4%) specimens were cultured as per routine practice and also tested with fast multiplex real-time polymerase-chain reaction (PCR) assays for 26 respiratory bacteria and viruses. Bacterial loads were also calculated for 8 bacterial pathogens. Appropriate pathogen-directed therapy was retrospectively assessed using national guidelines adapted for local antimicrobial susceptibility patterns. Results. Comprehensive molecular testing of single lower respiratory tract (LRT) specimens achieved pathogen detection in 87% of CAP patients compared with 39% with culture-based methods. Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae were the main agents detected, along with a wide variety of typical and atypical pathogens. Viruses were present in 30% of cases; 82% of these were codetections with bacteria. Most (85%) patients had received antimicrobials in the 72 hours before admission. Of these, 78% had a bacterial pathogen detected by PCR but only 32% were culture-positive (P < .0001). Molecular testing had the potential to enable de-escalation in number and/or spectrum of antimicrobials in 77% of patients. Conclusions. Comprehensive molecular testing significantly improves pathogen detection in CAP, particularly in antimicrobial-exposed patients, and requires only a single LRT specimen. It also has the potential to enable early de-escalation from broad-spectrum empirical antimicrobials to pathogen-directed therapy.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe