In-sample forecasting: A brief review and new algorithms

Statistical methods often distinguish between in-sample and out-of-sample approaches. In particular this is the case when time is involved. Then often time series methods are proposed that extrapolate past patterns into the future via complicated recursion formulas. Standard statistical inference is on the other hand concerned with estimating parameters within the given sample. This review paper is about a statistical methodology, where all parameters are estimated in-sample while producing a forecast out-of-sample without recursion or extrapolation. A new super-simulation algorithm ensures a faster implementation of the simplest and perhaps most important version of in-sample forecasting

Wage inequality, segregation by skill and the price of capital in an assignment model

Some pieces of empirical evidence suggest that in the U.S., over the last few decades, (i) wage inequality between-plants has risen much more than wage inequality within-plants and (ii) there has been an increase in the segregation of workers by skill into separate plants. This paper presents a frictionless assignment model in which these two features can be explained simultaneously as the result of the decline in the relative price of capital. Additional implications of the model regarding the skill premium and the dispersion in labor productivity across plants are also consistent with the empirical evidence. [resumen de autor

The Presidency and the Executive Branch in Latin America: What We Know and What We Need to Know

The presidential politics literature depicts presidents either as all- powerful actors or figureheads and seeks to explain outcomes accordingly. Th e president and the executive branch are nonetheless usually treated as black boxes, particularly i n developing countries, even though the presidency has evolved into an extremely complex branch of government. While these developments have been studied in the U nited States, far less i s known in other countries, particularly in Latin America, where presi dential systems have been considered the source of all goods and evils. To help close the knowledge gap and explore differences in policymaking characteristics not only between Latin America and the US but also across Latin American countries, this paper s ummarizes the vast literature on the organization and resources of the Executive Branch in the Americas and sets a research agenda for the study of Latin American presidencies.Fil: Bonvecchi, Alejandro. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Departamento de Ciencia Política y Estudios Internacionales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Scartascini, Juan Carlos. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo; Estados Unido

Unspecific hydrophobic stabilization of folding transition states

Here we present a method for determining the inference of non-native conformations in the folding of a small domain, α-spectrin Src homology 3 domain. This method relies on the preservation of all native interactions after Tyr/Phe exchanges in solvent-exposed, contact-free positions. Minor changes in solvent exposure and free energy of the denatured ensemble are in agreement with the reverse hydrophobic effect, as the Tyr/Phe mutations slightly change the polypeptide hydrophilic/hydrophobic balance. Interestingly, more important Gibbs energy variations are observed in the transition state ensemble (TSE). Considering the small changes induced by the H/OH replacements, the observed energy variations in the TSE are rather notable, but of a magnitude that would remain undetected under regular mutations that alter the folded structure free energy. Hydrophobic residues outside of the folding nucleus contribute to the stability of the TSE in an unspecific nonlinear manner, producing a significant acceleration of both unfolding and refolding rates, with little effect on stability. These results suggest that sectors of the protein transiently reside in non-native areas of the landscape during folding, with implications in the reading of φ values from protein engineering experiments. Contrary to previous proposals, the principle that emerges is that non-native contacts, or conformations, could be beneficial in evolution and design of some fast folding proteins

Нагружающие устройства испытательных стендов

This paper estimates firm level energy efficiency and its determinants in 14 sectors of Swedish manufacturing by using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). We derive energy demand frontiers both from cost minimizing and profit maximizing perspectives. To account for firms’ heterogeneity, Greene’s true random effects model is adopted. Results show that, from both firm behavior perspectives, there is room to improve energy efficiency in all sectors of Swedish manufacturing. The EU ETS seem to have had a moderate or no effect on Swedish firms’ efficient use of energy. Moreover, we found that energy intensity or energy productivity (energy use over production value) is not an appropriate proxy for energy efficiency