Growth and Containment of a Hierarchical Criminal Network

We model the hierarchical evolution of an organized criminal network via antagonistic recruitment and pursuit processes. Within the recruitment phase, a criminal kingpin enlists new members into the network, who in turn seek out other affiliates. New recruits are linked to established criminals according to a probability distribution that depends on the current network structure. At the same time, law enforcement agents attempt to dismantle the growing organization using pursuit strategies that initiate on the lower level nodes and that unfold as self-avoiding random walks. The global details of the organization are unknown to law enforcement, who must explore the hierarchy node by node. We halt the pursuit when certain local criteria of the network are uncovered, encoding if and when an arrest is made; the criminal network is assumed to be eradicated if the kingpin is arrested. We first analyze recruitment and study the large scale properties of the growing network; later we add pursuit and use numerical simulations to study the eradication probability in the case of three pursuit strategies, the time to first eradication and related costs. Within the context of this model, we find that eradication becomes increasingly costly as the network increases in size and that the optimal way of arresting the kingpin is to intervene at the early stages of network formation. We discuss our results in the context of dark network disruption and their implications on possible law enforcement strategies.Comment: 16 pages, 11 Figures; New title; Updated figures with color scheme better suited for colorblind readers and for gray scale printin

Fusing simulated GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR data for regional aboveground biomass mapping

Accurate mapping of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is critical for better understanding the role of forests in the global carbon cycle. NASA's current GEDI and ICESat-2 missions as well as the upcoming NISAR mission will collect synergistic data with different coverage and sensitivity to AGB. In this study, we present a multi-sensor data fusion approach leveraging the strength of each mission to produce wall-to-wall AGB maps that are more accurate and spatially comprehensive than what is achievable with any one sensor alone. Specifically, we calibrate a regional L-band radar AGB model using the sparse, simulated spaceborne lidar AGB estimates. We assess our data fusion framework using simulations of GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR data from airborne laser scanning (ALS) and UAVSAR data acquired over the temperate high AGB forest and complex terrain in Sonoma County, California, USA. For ICESat-2 and GEDI missions, we simulate two years of data coverage and AGB at footprint level are estimated using realistic AGB models. We compare the performance of our fusion framework when different combinations of the sparse simulated GEDI and ICEsat-2 AGB estimates are used to calibrate our regional L-band AGB models. In addition, we test our framework at Sonoma using (a) 1-ha square grid cells and (b) similarly sized irregularly shaped objects. We demonstrate that the estimated mean AGB across Sonoma is more accurately estimated using our fusion framework than using GEDI or ICESat-2 mission data alone, either with a regular grid or with irregular segments as mapping units. This research highlights methodological opportunities for fusing new and upcoming active remote sensing data streams toward improved AGB mapping through data fusion.</p

Growth and containment of a hierarchical criminal network.

We model the hierarchical evolution of an organized criminal network via antagonistic recruitment and pursuit processes. Within the recruitment phase, a criminal kingpin enlists new members into the network, who in turn seek out other affiliates. New recruits are linked to established criminals according to a probability distribution that depends on the current network structure. At the same time, law enforcement agents attempt to dismantle the growing organization using pursuit strategies that initiate on the lower level nodes and that unfold as self-avoiding random walks. The global details of the organization are unknown to law enforcement, who must explore the hierarchy node by node. We halt the pursuit when certain local criteria of the network are uncovered, encoding if and when an arrest is made; the criminal network is assumed to be eradicated if the kingpin is arrested. We first analyze recruitment and study the large scale properties of the growing network; later we add pursuit and use numerical simulations to study the eradication probability in the case of three pursuit strategies, the time to first eradication, and related costs. Within the context of this model, we find that eradication becomes increasingly costly as the network increases in size and that the optimal way of arresting the kingpin is to intervene at the early stages of network formation. We discuss our results in the context of dark network disruption and their implications on possible law enforcement strategies

Fusing simulated GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR data for regional aboveground biomass mapping

Accurate mapping of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is critical for better understanding the role of forests in the global carbon cycle. NASA's current GEDI and ICESat-2 missions as well as the upcoming NISAR mission will collect synergistic data with different coverage and sensitivity to AGB. In this study, we present a multi-sensor data fusion approach leveraging the strength of each mission to produce wall-to-wall AGB maps that are more accurate and spatially comprehensive than what is achievable with any one sensor alone. Specifically, we calibrate a regional L-band radar AGB model using the sparse, simulated spaceborne lidar AGB estimates. We assess our data fusion framework using simulations of GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR data from airborne laser scanning (ALS) and UAVSAR data acquired over the temperate high AGB forest and complex terrain in Sonoma County, California, USA. For ICESat-2 and GEDI missions, we simulate two years of data coverage and AGB at footprint level are estimated using realistic AGB models. We compare the performance of our fusion framework when different combinations of the sparse simulated GEDI and ICEsat-2 AGB estimates are used to calibrate our regional L-band AGB models. In addition, we test our framework at Sonoma using (a) 1-ha square grid cells and (b) similarly sized irregularly shaped objects. We demonstrate that the estimated mean AGB across Sonoma is more accurately estimated using our fusion framework than using GEDI or ICESat-2 mission data alone, either with a regular grid or with irregular segments as mapping units. This research highlights methodological opportunities for fusing new and upcoming active remote sensing data streams toward improved AGB mapping through data fusion.</p

Studies of the decays B+→pp¯h+ and observation of B+→Λ¯(1520)p

Dynamics and direct CP violation in three-body charmless decays of charged B mesons to a proton, an antiproton and a light meson (pion or kaon) are studied using data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0  fb−1, collected by the LHCb experiment in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. Production spectra are determined as a function of Dalitz-plot and helicity variables. The forward-backward asymmetry of the light meson in the pp¯ rest frame is measured. No significant CP asymmetry in B+→pp¯K+ decay is found in any region of the Dalitz plane. We present the first observation of the decay B+→Λ¯¯(1520)(→K+p¯)p near the K+p¯ threshold and measure B(B+→Λ¯¯(1520)p)=(3.9+1.0−0.9(stat)±0.1(syst)±0.3(BF))×10−7, where BF denotes the uncertainty on secondary branching fractions