Simulation modeling of phytoplankton dynamics in a large eutrophic river, Hungary – Danubian Phytoplankton Growth Model (DPGM)

Ecological models have often been used in order to answer questions that are in the limelight of recent researches such as the possible effects of climate change. The methodology of tactical models is a very useful tool comparison to those complex models requiring relatively large set of input parameters. In this study, a theoretical strategic model (TEGM ) was adapted to the field data on the basis of a 24-year long monitoring database of phytoplankton in the Danube River at the station of G¨od, Hungary (at 1669 river kilometer – hereafter referred to as “rkm”). The Danubian Phytoplankton Growth Model (DPGM) is able to describe the seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton biomass (mg L−1) based on daily temperature, but takes the availability of light into consideration as well. In order to improve fitting, the 24-year long database was split in two parts in accordance with environmental sustainability. The period of 1979–1990 has a higher level of nutrient excess compared with that of the 1991–2002. The authors assume that, in the above-mentioned periods, phytoplankton responded to temperature in two different ways, thus two submodels were developed, DPGM-sA and DPGMsB. Observed and simulated data correlated quite well. Findings suggest that linear temperature rise brings drastic change to phytoplankton only in case of high nutrient load and it is mostly realized through the increase of yearly total biomass

Stability of zero-growth economics analysed with a Minskyan model

As humanity is becoming increasingly confronted by Earth's finite biophysical limits, there is increasing interest in questions about the stability and equitability of a zero-growth capitalist economy, most notably: if one maintains a positive interest rate for loans, can a zero-growth economy be stable? This question has been explored on a few different macroeconomic models, and both ‘yes' and ‘no’ answers have been obtained. However, economies can become unstable whether or not there is ongoing underlying growth in productivity with which to sustain growth in output. Here we attempt, for the first time, to assess via a model the relative stability of growth versus no-growth scenarios. The model employed draws from Keen's model of the Minsky financial instability hypothesis. The analysis focuses on dynamics as opposed to equilibrium, and scenarios of growth and no-growth of output (GDP) are obtained by tweaking a productivity growth input parameter. We confirm that, with or without growth, there can be both stable and unstable scenarios. To maintain stability, firms must not change their debt levels or target debt levels too quickly. Further, according to the model, the wages share is higher for zero-growth scenarios, although there are more frequent substantial drops in employment

Outcome of Total Parathyroidectomy and Autotransplantation as Treatment of Secondary and Tertiary Hyperparathyroidism in Children and Adults

Contains fulltext : 89902.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)BACKGROUND: Treatment safety and effectiveness of total parathyroidectomy and autotransplantation for secondary and tertiary hyperparathyroidism have been extensively proven in adults; the evidence for children, however, is scarce. Children and adolescents cannot simply be seen as young adults in the case of chronic kidney disease and hyperparathyroidism. The aim of this retrospective study was therefore, to evaluate whether parathyroidectomy with forearm autograft is as effective and safe in children and adolescents as in adults. METHODS: A group of 64 adults and 8 children and adolescents treated for secondary or tertiary hyperparathyroidism were retrieved from our database. The outcomes were compared on patient demographics, operation results, and blood parameters consisting of parathyroid hormone (PTH) and calcium levels. Our results were compared with all currently available articles on parathyroidectomy in children with secondary or tertiary hyperparathyroidism (n = 11). RESULTS: For adults, preoperative mean serum calcium was 2.67 +/- 0.29 mmol/l and mean parathyroid hormone (PTH) level was 120 +/- 86 pmol/l. For children, preoperative mean serum calcium was 2.62 +/- 0.20 mmol/l and mean parathyroid hormone (PTH) level was 80 +/- 38 pmol/l. Postoperative calcium and parathyroid hormone levels for adults dropped to 2.39 +/- 0.23 mmol/l and 30 +/- 53 pmol/l, respectively. Postoperative calcium and parathyroid hormone levels for children dropped to 2.41 +/- 0.16 mmol/l and 26 +/- 33 pmol/l, respectively. The effectiveness of parathyroidectomy with autotransplantation was 75% in children and 72% in adults. Thus, effectiveness did not differ significantly between children and adults. CONCLUSIONS: Combining the results of our own study with a literature review on pediatric parathyroidectomy, we conclude that parathyroidectomy and forearm autograft is as effective a treatment for secondary and tertiary hyperparathyroidism in children and adolescents as it is in adults.1 mei 201

Climate change and freshwater zooplankton: what does it boil down to?

Recently, major advances in the climate–zooplankton interface have been made some of which appeared to receive much attention in a broader audience of ecologists as well. In contrast to the marine realm, however, we still lack a more holistic summary of recent knowledge in freshwater. We discuss climate change-related variation in physical and biological attributes of lakes and running waters, high-order ecological functions, and subsequent alteration in zooplankton abundance, phenology, distribution, body size, community structure, life history parameters, and behavior by focusing on community level responses. The adequacy of large-scale climatic indices in ecology has received considerable support and provided a framework for the interpretation of community and species level responses in freshwater zooplankton. Modeling perspectives deserve particular consideration, since this promising stream of ecology is of particular applicability in climate change research owing to the inherently predictive nature of this field. In the future, ecologists should expand their research on species beyond daphnids, should address questions as to how different intrinsic and extrinsic drivers interact, should move beyond correlative approaches toward more mechanistic explanations, and last but not least, should facilitate transfer of biological data both across space and time

Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan

Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science