The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Évolution géomorphologique et risques côtiers le long des rivages du Makran (Iran)

Cette thèse a deux objectifs principaux: (i) la reconstruction de l'évolution des plaines côtières autour des baies de Chabahar et de Pozm et (ii) L'évaluation des risques côtiers (tsunamis et tempêtes extrêmes) par l'étude des dépôts de haute énergie. Vastes plaines côtières et paleo-rivages protégées par des terrasses marines soulevées sont présents autour des baies de Chabahar et Pozm. Nous avons mise en évidence des changements du niveau marin relatif le long de quatre profils. L'architecture interne des paleo-rivages a été imagée en utilisant le géoradar (GPR). Des analyses sédimentologiques et stratigraphiques des séquences côtières ont été examinées par carottages et tranchées. Les paleo-rivages sont datées entre 4800 et 270 ans BP à des distances respectives de 5 km et de 670 m du rivage actuel. La position spatiale des paléo-rivages montre une chute du niveau relatif de la mer de 15 m au cours des 4800 derniers années. Nous insistons aussi sur le rôle de contrôle des structures géologiques. Les dépôts d'événements (tsunami et tempêtes) ont été étudiés en contexte de côte meuble par Les sédiments sableux et coquilliers d'origine marine, et sur les côtes rocheuses par les dépôt des blocs déplacés. Nous avons appliqué des modèles hydrologiques pour évaluer et comparer la hauteur des vagues et la distance d'inondation. Nos résultats montrent qu'aucun événement de tempête, connu ou potentiel, n'est capable de transporter les blocs observés. Des vagues de tsunamis de l'ordre de 4 m de hauteur sont suffisantes pour transporter les blocs. La côte de Makran a enregistré des indices de paléo-tsunamis probablement générés par de grands séismes dans la zone de subduction.In this thesis we have two main goals: (i) to reconstruct the Holocene coastal evolution and relative sea-level changes using strandplains around the Chabahar and Pozm bays; and (ii) to evaluate coastal hazards (tsunami and extreme storms) along the Iranian coast of Makran using high-energy deposits. Since the mid-Holocene, the shoreline rimming the bays of Chabahar and Pozm has prograded ~5 km and formed extensive strandplains. We documented relative sea-level changes along four coast-normal profiles. Internal architecture of strandplain imaged using Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR). The sedimentology and stratigraphy of the coastal sequence were studied by coring and trenching. The highest paleo-coastline is located about 5 km inland and stands approximately 15 m above present sea level. Paleo-shorelines date back between 4800 and 270 years BP at respective distances of 5 km to 670 m from the active shoreline. The spatial position of the palaeo-coastlines demonstrates a fall in local sea level of around 15 m during the last ~4800 years. Event deposits attesting to high-energy waves have been studied in low-lying coast by study of Over-washed sandy and shelly marine sediment and on the rocky shore by study of displaced boulder deposits. We applied hydrologic models to estimate the height and inundation distance of exceptional waves. Our results demonstrate that no known or probable storm is capable of detaching and transporting the boulders. Tsunami waves 4 m in height are enough to transport the boulders. We conclude the Makran coast has archived evidence of palaeo-tsunami events generated in the Makran subduction zone

Analysis of the Makran Coastline of Iran’s Vulnerability to Global Sea-Level Rise

International audienceThe SE coast of Iran is of great economic and environmental importance. Global climate change affects this coastline through sea level rise (SLR), compounded by a decrease in sediment budgets in coastal areas. This study developed a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the SE coast of Iran using satellite, instrumental and field data. Eight risk variables were defined: coastal slope, regional coastal elevation, mean tidal range, mean significant wave height, rate of relative sea-level change, rate of shoreline change, environmental sensitivity and socio-economic sensitivity. The coast was divided into 27 segments based on geomorphic, environmental and socioeconomic traits. Coastal segments were categorized based on their vulnerability to each risk factor using a CVI. The resulting maps highlighted the vulnerability of each coastal segment to SLR. Approximately 50% of the coast is comprised of mostly rocky shores, which are less vulnerable to SLR. Approximately 33% of the coastal length, including sandy beaches, tidal flats and mangrove forests, were determined to be highly vulnerable to SLR. Approximately 12% of the coastline was determined to be moderately vulnerable. Population centers and infrastructure were ranked as highly-to-moderately vulnerable to SLR. This study highlighted the high vulnerability of low-lying areas, such as lagoons and mangroves, in the western part of the Iranian coast of Makran. Proper coastal management and mitigation plans are essential in the future to protect coastal societies and environments

Coastal boulder deposits attesting to large wave impacts on the Mediterranean coast of Egypt

International audienceCoastal boulder accumulations are documented along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt between Alexandria and Marsa Matrouh at four distinct sites. The spatial distribution and dimensions of 116 medium to large boulders were documented along four representative coastal profiles. Boulders weigh up to 23 metric tons and are located up to 40 m from the shoreline. Geomorphologic features, morphometric properties and the presence of attached marine organisms attest that the boulders are detached and transported from original subtidal or intertidal settings by the impact of unusually large waves. Adapted hydrodynamic models were applied to evaluate the height of the transporting waves. Our result shows that largest boulders could be transported by tsunami waves of 2.6 m or storm wave of about 10 m in height. Radiocarbon dating was performed on fixed marine gastropod (Vermetidae and Dendropoma) shells found on four representative large boulders. A calibrated age from the easternmost site is roughly coincident to the well-known tsunami of 1303 AD in the eastern Mediterranean. Three other calibrated ages correspond to a period ranging from the eighteenth century AD to present. A large tsunami like the event of 1303 AD would have been able to transport all of the studied boulders. However, radiocarbon ages and morphological properties such as freshly broken edges and surfaces suggest younger ages for the majority of boulders. Since there have been no large, post-1303 AD tsunamis reported, we suggest that the majority, if not all, of the boulders were most likely deposited by multiple intense storms. According to the wave height model, storms with wave heights exceeding 9 m at their breaking point probably occur about once every 100 years. A relationship between the boulder deposits and the high storm frequency that characterized the little ice age in the Mediterranean Sea is plausible. This study emphasizes the potential hazard of large waves on this part of the Mediterranean coast of Egypt

Luminescence dating of cyclone-induced washover fans at Point Lefroy (NW Australia)

Reliable age dating of coastal sedimentary landforms is crucial for inferring storm frequencies and magnitudes from geological archives. However, in highly energetic coastal settings, radiocarbon dating is often biased by reworking and/or poorly constrained marine reservoir effects. Due to this, most cyclone-driven sediment archives from the semiarid coast of NW Australia – a region frequently affected by tropical cyclones but with a historical record limited to ∼150 a, and therefore strongly in need of long-term data inferred from geological evidence – are affected by chronological inaccuracies. Optically stimulated luminescence dating (OSL) may overcome these shortcomings by dating the transport of sediment directly. In turn it may be related to other challenges when applied to cyclone deposits from semiarid environments. The cyclone-induced washover fans at Point Lefroy, NW Australia, are composed of a heterogeneous mixture of coral fragments, shell hash and siliciclastic sand. This makes them particularly prone to high dose scatter resulting from a combination of partial bleaching, sediment mixing and dose-rate heterogeneity. The washover fans are further characterised by a discontinuous nature of cyclone deposition, as indicated by erosional features and macroscopic brunification horizons. By using a combination of quartz single grain dating, autoradiography, alpha counting and gamma spectrometry, sediment mixing and dose rate heterogeneity are identified as the main sources of dose scatter. The resulting chronology allows us to discriminate at least four well constrained phases of washover fan activity at ∼180, ∼360, ∼870, and ∼1300 a ago. Older but less well constrained activity phases occurred ∼1950, ∼2300, and ∼2830 a ago. While these phases of increased cyclone activity correlate with depositional units separated by potential palaeosols, OSL ages, quasi-continuous portable OSL reader measurements and gamma spectrometry measured with increased sampling resolution point to deposition of distinct washover units within a very short period of time. However, unambiguous discrimination between deposition of individual units by single events and deposition by several cyclones within periods of only a few decades is currently not possible

The impacts of Persian Gulf water and ocean-atmosphere interactions on tropical cyclone intensification in the Arabian Sea

International audienceDuring the last two decades, the number of tropical cyclone (TC) events in the Arabian Sea has increased dramatically, causing severe human and economic damage in Oman, Iran and Pakistan. Within this context, Gonu, Phet and Shaheen were the Arabian Sea's most destructive TCs on record, leading to a total of 6.07 billion USD in damages and 159 fatalities. Previous studies have mainly focused on atmospheric, sea surface temperature (SST) and anthropogenic impacts of TC generation and intensification. By contrast, oceanographic currents, Persian Gulf water outflow and the role of ocean-atmospheric interactions on the distribution of outflow water into the Arabian Sea, and their impacts on the TC intensification, are poorly understood. In order to address this issue, we use historical TC records, satellite data, atmospheric and oceanographic models to shed new light on the relationship between Persian Gulf water outflow and ocean currents on TC intensification in the Arabian Sea. The results demonstrate that water outflow depths are controlled by wind stress and upwelling intensity. Increased upwelling events due to the poleward movement of the monsoon belt have led to an increase in upper ocean salinity and heat content. Rapid TC intensification has increased noticeably since 2007 and more than 72% of cyclones have reached category 3 or more. We find that TC intensity is controlled by warm and saline (> 36.6 PSU) water distribution patterns, mediated by eddy and jet currents. Rapid intensification of pre-monsoon TCs occurred by tracking to the north and northwest, with most landfalls occurring during this period. Post-monsoon TCs generally affect the center and the southwest of the Arabian Sea. The TC risk manifests an increasing trend since 2007, therefore education programs via international platforms such as the International Ocean Institute (IOI) and UNESCO are required for the countries most at risk

The impacts of Persian Gulf water and ocean-atmosphere interactions on tropical cyclone intensification in the Arabian Sea

International audienceDuring the last two decades, the number of tropical cyclone (TC) events in the Arabian Sea has increased dramatically, causing severe human and economic damage in Oman, Iran and Pakistan. Within this context, Gonu, Phet and Shaheen were the Arabian Sea's most destructive TCs on record, leading to a total of 6.07 billion USD in damages and 159 fatalities. Previous studies have mainly focused on atmospheric, sea surface temperature (SST) and anthropogenic impacts of TC generation and intensification. By contrast, oceanographic currents, Persian Gulf water outflow and the role of ocean-atmospheric interactions on the distribution of outflow water into the Arabian Sea, and their impacts on the TC intensification, are poorly understood. In order to address this issue, we use historical TC records, satellite data, atmospheric and oceanographic models to shed new light on the relationship between Persian Gulf water outflow and ocean currents on TC intensification in the Arabian Sea. The results demonstrate that water outflow depths are controlled by wind stress and upwelling intensity. Increased upwelling events due to the poleward movement of the monsoon belt have led to an increase in upper ocean salinity and heat content. Rapid TC intensification has increased noticeably since 2007 and more than 72% of cyclones have reached category 3 or more. We find that TC intensity is controlled by warm and saline (> 36.6 PSU) water distribution patterns, mediated by eddy and jet currents. Rapid intensification of pre-monsoon TCs occurred by tracking to the north and northwest, with most landfalls occurring during this period. Post-monsoon TCs generally affect the center and the southwest of the Arabian Sea. The TC risk manifests an increasing trend since 2007, therefore education programs via international platforms such as the International Ocean Institute (IOI) and UNESCO are required for the countries most at risk

The impacts of Persian Gulf water and ocean-atmosphere interactions on tropical cyclone intensification in the Arabian Sea

International audienceDuring the last two decades, the number of tropical cyclone (TC) events in the Arabian Sea has increased dramatically, causing severe human and economic damage in Oman, Iran and Pakistan. Within this context, Gonu, Phet and Shaheen were the Arabian Sea's most destructive TCs on record, leading to a total of 6.07 billion USD in damages and 159 fatalities. Previous studies have mainly focused on atmospheric, sea surface temperature (SST) and anthropogenic impacts of TC generation and intensification. By contrast, oceanographic currents, Persian Gulf water outflow and the role of ocean-atmospheric interactions on the distribution of outflow water into the Arabian Sea, and their impacts on the TC intensification, are poorly understood. In order to address this issue, we use historical TC records, satellite data, atmospheric and oceanographic models to shed new light on the relationship between Persian Gulf water outflow and ocean currents on TC intensification in the Arabian Sea. The results demonstrate that water outflow depths are controlled by wind stress and upwelling intensity. Increased upwelling events due to the poleward movement of the monsoon belt have led to an increase in upper ocean salinity and heat content. Rapid TC intensification has increased noticeably since 2007 and more than 72% of cyclones have reached category 3 or more. We find that TC intensity is controlled by warm and saline (> 36.6 PSU) water distribution patterns, mediated by eddy and jet currents. Rapid intensification of pre-monsoon TCs occurred by tracking to the north and northwest, with most landfalls occurring during this period. Post-monsoon TCs generally affect the center and the southwest of the Arabian Sea. The TC risk manifests an increasing trend since 2007, therefore education programs via international platforms such as the International Ocean Institute (IOI) and UNESCO are required for the countries most at risk

The impacts of Persian Gulf water and ocean-atmosphere interactions on tropical cyclone intensification in the Arabian Sea

International audienceDuring the last two decades, the number of tropical cyclone (TC) events in the Arabian Sea has increased dramatically, causing severe human and economic damage in Oman, Iran and Pakistan. Within this context, Gonu, Phet and Shaheen were the Arabian Sea's most destructive TCs on record, leading to a total of 6.07 billion USD in damages and 159 fatalities. Previous studies have mainly focused on atmospheric, sea surface temperature (SST) and anthropogenic impacts of TC generation and intensification. By contrast, oceanographic currents, Persian Gulf water outflow and the role of ocean-atmospheric interactions on the distribution of outflow water into the Arabian Sea, and their impacts on the TC intensification, are poorly understood. In order to address this issue, we use historical TC records, satellite data, atmospheric and oceanographic models to shed new light on the relationship between Persian Gulf water outflow and ocean currents on TC intensification in the Arabian Sea. The results demonstrate that water outflow depths are controlled by wind stress and upwelling intensity. Increased upwelling events due to the poleward movement of the monsoon belt have led to an increase in upper ocean salinity and heat content. Rapid TC intensification has increased noticeably since 2007 and more than 72% of cyclones have reached category 3 or more. We find that TC intensity is controlled by warm and saline (> 36.6 PSU) water distribution patterns, mediated by eddy and jet currents. Rapid intensification of pre-monsoon TCs occurred by tracking to the north and northwest, with most landfalls occurring during this period. Post-monsoon TCs generally affect the center and the southwest of the Arabian Sea. The TC risk manifests an increasing trend since 2007, therefore education programs via international platforms such as the International Ocean Institute (IOI) and UNESCO are required for the countries most at risk

The hazard potential of the western segment of the Makran subduction zone, northern Arabian Sea

Evaluating the hazard potential of the Makran subduction zone requires understanding the previous records of the large earthquakes and tsunamis. We address this problem by searching for earthquake and tectonic proxies along the Makran Coast and linking those observations with the available constraints on historical seismicity and the tell-tale characteristics of sea floor morphology. The earthquake of Mw 8.1 of 1945 and the consequent tsunami that originated on the eastern part of the Makran are the only historically known hazardous events in this region. The seismic status of the western part of the subduction zone outside the rupture area of the 1945 earthquake remains an enigma. The near-shore shallow stratigraphy of the central part of Makran near Chabahar shows evidence of seismically induced liquefaction that we attribute to the distant effects of the 1945 earthquake. The coastal sites further westward around Jask are remarkable for the absence of liquefaction features, at least at the shallow level. Although a negative evidence, this possibly implies that the western part of Makran Coast region may not have been impacted by near-field large earthquakes in the recent past-a fact also supported by the analysis of historical data. On the other hand, the elevated marine terraces on the western Makran and their uplift rates are indicative of comparable degree of long-term tectonic activity, at least around Chabahar. The offshore data suggest occurrences of recently active submarine slumps on the eastern part of the Makran, reflective of shaking events, owing to the great 1945 earthquake. The ocean floor morphologic features on the western segment, on the contrary, are much subdued and the prograding delta lobes on the shelf edge also remain intact. The coast on the western Makran, in general, shows indications of progradation and uplift. The various lines of evidence thus suggest that although the western segment is potentially seismogenic, large earthquakes have not occurred there in the recent past, at least during the last 600 years. The recurrence period of earthquakes may range up to 1,000 years or more, an assessment based on the age of the youngest dated coastal ridge. The long elapsed time points to the fact that the western segment may have accumulated sufficient slip to produce a major earthquake