Projecting the incidence and costs of major cardiovascular and kidney complications of type 2 diabetes with widespread SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA use: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Aims/hypothesis Whether sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) are cost-effective based solely on their cardiovascular and kidney benefits is unknown. We projected the health and economic outcomes due to myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, heart failure (HF) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among people with type 2 diabetes, with and without CVD, under scenarios of widespread use of these drugs. Methods We designed a microsimulation model using real-world data that captured CVD and ESKD morbidity and mortality from 2020 to 2040. The populations and transition probabilities were derived by linking the Australian Diabetes Registry (1.1 million people with type 2 diabetes) to hospital admissions databases, the National Death Index and the ESKD Registry using data from 2010 to 2019. We modelled four interventions: increase in use of SGLT2is or GLP-1 RAs to 75% of the total population with type 2 diabetes, and increase in use of SGLT2is or GLP-1 RAs to 75% of the secondary prevention population (i.e. people with type 2 diabetes and prior CVD). All interventions were compared with current use of SGLT2is (20% of the total population) and GLP-1 RAs (5% of the total population). Outcomes of interest included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total costs (from the Australian public healthcare perspective) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). We applied 5% annual discounting for health economic outcomes. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at AU$28,000 per QALY gained. Results The numbers of QALYs gained from 2020 to 2040 with increased SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA use in the total population (n=1.1 million in 2020; n=1.5 million in 2040) were 176,446 and 200,932, respectively, compared with current use. Net cost differences were AU$4.2 billion for SGLT2is and AU$20.2 billion for GLP-1 RAs, and the ICERs were AU$23,717 and AU$100,705 per QALY gained, respectively. In the secondary prevention population, the ICERs were AU$8878 for SGLT2is and AU$79,742 for GLP-1 RAs. Conclusions/interpretation At current prices, use of SGLT2is, but not GLP-1 RAs, would be cost-effective when considering only their cardiovascular and kidney disease benefits for people with type 2 diabetes.Jedidiah I. Morton, Clara Marquina, Jonathan E. Shaw, Danny Liew, Kevan R. Polkinghorne, Zanfina Ademi, Dianna J. Maglian

Cardiovascular disease management in people with diabetes outside North America and Western Europe in 2006 and 2015

Aim: Optimal treatment of cardiovascular disease is essential to decrease mortality among people with diabetes, but information is limited on how actual treatment relates to guidelines. We analysed changes in therapeutic approaches to anti-hypertensive and lipid-lowering medications in people with Type 2 diabetes from 2006 and 2015. Methods: Summary data from clinical services in seven countries outside North America and Western Europe were collected for 39 684 people. Each site summarized individual-level data from outpatient medical records for 2006 and 2015. Data included: demographic information, blood pressure (BP), total cholesterol levels and percentage of people taking statins, anti-hypertensive medication (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, calcium channel blockers, angiotensin II receptor blockers, thiazide diuretics) and antiplatelet drugs. Results: From 2006 to 2015, mean cholesterol levels decreased in six of eight sites (range: −0.5 to −0.2), whereas the proportion with BP levels > 140/90 mmHg increased in seven of eight sites. Decreases in cholesterol paralleled increases in statin use (range: 3.1 to 47.0 percentage points). Overall, utilization of anti-hypertensive medication did not change. However, there was an increase in the use of angiotensin II receptor blockers and a decrease in angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. The percentage of individuals receiving calcium channel blockers and aspirin remained unchanged. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that control of cholesterol levels improved and coincided with increased use of statins. The percentage of people with BP > 140/90 mmHg was higher in 2015 than in 2006. Hypertension treatment shifted from using angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors to angiotensin II receptor blockers. Despite the potentially greater tolerability of angiotensin II receptor blockers, there was no associated improvement in BP levels.Centro de Endocrinología Experimental y Aplicad

Cardiovascular disease management in people with diabetes outside North America and Western Europe in 2006 and 2015

Aim: Optimal treatment of cardiovascular disease is essential to decrease mortality among people with diabetes, but information is limited on how actual treatment relates to guidelines. We analysed changes in therapeutic approaches to anti-hypertensive and lipid-lowering medications in people with Type 2 diabetes from 2006 and 2015. Methods: Summary data from clinical services in seven countries outside North America and Western Europe were collected for 39 684 people. Each site summarized individual-level data from outpatient medical records for 2006 and 2015. Data included: demographic information, blood pressure (BP), total cholesterol levels and percentage of people taking statins, anti-hypertensive medication (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, calcium channel blockers, angiotensin II receptor blockers, thiazide diuretics) and antiplatelet drugs. Results: From 2006 to 2015, mean cholesterol levels decreased in six of eight sites (range: −0.5 to −0.2), whereas the proportion with BP levels > 140/90 mmHg increased in seven of eight sites. Decreases in cholesterol paralleled increases in statin use (range: 3.1 to 47.0 percentage points). Overall, utilization of anti-hypertensive medication did not change. However, there was an increase in the use of angiotensin II receptor blockers and a decrease in angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. The percentage of individuals receiving calcium channel blockers and aspirin remained unchanged. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that control of cholesterol levels improved and coincided with increased use of statins. The percentage of people with BP > 140/90 mmHg was higher in 2015 than in 2006. Hypertension treatment shifted from using angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors to angiotensin II receptor blockers. Despite the potentially greater tolerability of angiotensin II receptor blockers, there was no associated improvement in BP levels.Centro de Endocrinología Experimental y Aplicad

Association between Fruit and Vegetable Intakes and Mental Health in the Australian Diabetes Obesity and Lifestyle Cohort

Increasing prevalence of mental health disorders within the Australian population is a serious public health issue. Adequate intake of fruits and vegetables (FV), dietary fibre (DF) and resistant starch (RS) is associated with better mental and physical health. Few longitudinal studies exist exploring the temporal relationship. Using a validated food frequency questionnaire, we examined baseline FV intakes of 5845 Australian adults from the AusDiab study and estimated food group-derived DF and RS using data from the literature. Perceived mental health was assessed at baseline and 5 year follow up using SF-36 mental component summary scores (MCS). We conducted baseline cross-sectional analysis and prospective analysis of baseline dietary intake with perceived mental health at 5 years. Higher baseline FV and FV-derived DF and RS intakes were associated with better 5 year MCS (p < 0.001). A higher FV intake (754 g/d vs. 251 g/d, Q4 vs. Q1) at baseline had 41% lower odds (OR = 0.59: 95% CI 0.46–0.75) of MCS below population average (<47) at 5 year follow up. Findings were similar for FV-derived DF and RS. An inverse association was observed with discretionary food-derived DF and RS. This demonstrates the association between higher intakes of FV and FV-derived DF and RS with better 5 year mental health outcomes. Further RCTs are necessary to understand mechanisms that underlie this association including elucidation of causal effects

Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification: results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. METHODS: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. INTERPRETATION: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.</p

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3�6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55 of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017�and more than 80 in some low- and middle-income regions�was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing�and in some countries reversal�of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories. © 2019, The Author(s)

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol�which is a marker of cardiovascular risk�changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95 credible interval 3.7 million�4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited

Excess all-cause and cause-specific mortality for people with diabetes and end-stage kidney disease

Vol. 39(6) pp e14775-1 - 12Aims: Excess mortality is high in the setting of diabetes and end- stage kidney dis-ease (ESKD), but the effects of ESKD beyond diabetes itself remains incompletely understood. We examined excess mortality in people with diabetes with versus without ESKD, and variation by age, sex and diabetes type. Methods: This study included 63,599 people with type 1 (aged 20– 69 years; 56% men) and 1,172,160 people with type 2 diabetes (aged 30+ years; 54% men), from the Australian National Diabetes Services Scheme. Initiation of renal replacement therapy and mortality outcomes were obtained via linkage to the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry and the National Death Index, respectively. Excess mortality was measured by calculating the mortality rate ratio (MRR) for people with versus without ESKD via indirect standardisation. Results: A total of 9027 people developed ESKD during 8,601,522 person- years of follow- up. Among people with type 1 diabetes, the MRR was 34.9 (95%CI: 16.6– 73.1) in men and 41.5 (20.8– 83.1) in women aged 20– 29 years and was 5.6 (4.5– 7.0) and 7.4 (5.5– 10.1) in men and women aged 60– 69 years, respectively. In type 2 diabetes, MRRs were 16.6 (8.6– 31.8) and 35.8 (17.0– 75.2) at age 30– 39 years and were 2.8 (2.6– 3.1) and 3.6 (3.2– 4.1) at age 80+ years in men and women, respectively. Excess cause- specific mortality was highest for peripheral artery disease, cardiac arrest, and infections, and lowest for cancer. Conclusions: Among people with diabetes, excess mortality in ESKD is much higher at younger ages and is higher for women compared with men.Jedidiah I. Morton, Julian W. Sacre, Stephen P. McDonald, Dianna J. Magliano, Jonathan E. Sha

The association between age of onset of type 2 diabetes with the long-term risk of end-stage kidney disease: a National Registry study

Objective: The long-term risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in type 2 diabetes is poorly described, as is the effect that younger age of diabetes onset has on this risk. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the effect of age of onset on the cumulative incidence of ESKD from onset of type 2 diabetes. Research Design and Methods: This study included 1,113,201 people with type 2 diabetes registered on the Australian National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS) followed from 2002 until 2013. The NDSS was linked to the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry and the Australian National Death Index. Results: Between 2002 and 2013, there were 7,592 incident cases of ESKD during 7,839,075 person-years of follow-up. In the first 10-15 years following the onset of diabetes, the incidence of ESKD was highest in those with an older age of onset of diabetes, whereas over longer durations of diabetes, the incidence of ESKD became higher in those with younger-onset diabetes. After 40 years of diabetes, the cumulative incidence of ESKD was 11.8% and 9.3% in those diagnosed with diabetes between ages 10-29 and 30-39 years, respectively. When death from ESKD without renal replacement therapy was included, the incidence of ESKD remained higher in older-onset diabetes for the initial 20 years, with no clear effect of age thereafter. Conclusions: The long-term risk of ESKD in type 2 diabetes is high, which disproportionately affects those with younger-onset of diabetes because they are more likely to survive to longer diabetes durations.Jedidiah I. Morton, Danny Liew, Stephen P. McDonald, Jonathan E. Shaw, and Dianna J. Maglian