Economic risk assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture

[EN] In this paper, we present an innovative framework for an economic risk analysis of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture. It consists on the integration of three components: stochastic time series modelling for prediction of inflows and future reservoir storages at the beginning of the irrigation season; statistical regression for the evaluation of water deliveries based on projected inflows and storages; and econometric modelling for economic assessment of the production value of agriculture based on irrigation water deliveries and crop prices. Therefore, the effect of the price volatility can be isolated from the losses due to water scarcity in the assessment of the drought impacts. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to generate probability functions of inflows, which are translated into probabilities of storages, deliveries, and finally, production value of agriculture. The framework also allows the assessment of the value of mitigation measures as reduction of economic losses during droughts. The approach was applied to the Jucar river basin, a complex system affected by multiannual severe droughts, with irrigated agriculture as the main consumptive demand. Probability distributions of deliveries and production value were obtained for each irrigation season. In the majority of the irrigation districts, drought causes a significant economic impact. The increase of crop prices can partially offset the losses from the reduction of production due to water scarcity in some districts. Emergency wells contribute to mitigating the droughts' impacts on the Jucar river system. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.This study has been supported by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad) and European FEDER funds; the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (GA 641.811) and the FP7 project ENHANCE (FP7, 308438).Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Macian-Sorribes, H. (2017). Economic risk assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture. Journal of Hydrology. 550:580-589. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.004S58058955

Mapeo de áreas regadas usando datos geoespaciales y teledetección en el municipio de Caudete de las Fuentes (Valencia)

Las políticas de control del uso agrícola de aguas subterráneas mediante la inspección de contadores se han demostrado caras y poco eficientes, mientras que en algunos estudios se ha obtenido resultados prometedores mediante la teledetección. El rápido progreso de las tecnologías de teledetección ha hecho posible su aplicación para la identificación de áreas regadas, y los nuevos sensores y técnicas de inteligencia artificial abren nuevas oportunidades a mejorar su eficacia y precisión. Nuestro trabajo propone una metodología de bajo coste y eficiente para detectar viña en riego a escala de parcela con el fin de mejorar la gestión colectiva de aguas subterráneas. A partir de información oficial se ha distinguido la superficie regada con técnicas de análisis de aprendizaje automático, empleando variables que condicionan el estado hídrico de la planta para la temporada de riego 2019. La metodología calcula la humedad del suelo con el método OPTRAM (OPtical TRApezoid Model) de análisis multitemporal de imágenes procedentes de plataformas satelitales. Estos datos son integrados en un SIG junto a información climática, topográfica e información propia del cultivo. Finalmente, en base a inventarios de verdad-terreno se aplica un clasificador de aprendizaje automático para estimar la superficie regada con agua procedente del acuífero. Los resultados obtenidos presentan una precisión general del 94.7%. Su evaluación aporta un error medio cuadrático de 0.163 y R-cuadrado de 0.874. La alta precisión y los bajos niveles de error obtenidos permiten validar la metodología empleada, que presenta potencial de mejora mediante una mayor alimentación del proceso de aprendizaje automático, que se aplicará en breve a otros cultivos leñosos

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Hydro-economic optimization under inflow uncertainty using the SDP_GAMS generalized optimization tool

The use of methodologies that explicitly take into account inflow uncertainties in the optimization of the management of water resource systems is hindered by the lack of a generalized software. A general-purpose package named SDP_GAMS has been developed, facilitating the resolution of the stochastic dynamic programming problem. It obtains optimal policies, associated optimal benefits and optimal decisions in response to specific inflow time series and demands. The tool has been tested in the Mijares River basin (Spain), with two reservoirs and four major demands. Inflow variability has been described by the use of a 1-lag Markov chain, and a 91-class two-reservoir discrete mesh was used in calculations. Polynomial economic demand curves were used. The results showed that the use of the SDP hydro-economic modelling procedure obtains optimal policies taking into account inflow uncertainty, which can lead to an improvement in the efficiency of water resources systems

Assessing the skill of seasonal meteorological forecast products for predicting droughts and water scarcity in highly regulated basins

Drought and water scarcity are important issues in Southern Europe and many predictions suggest that their frequency and severity will increase over the next years, potentially leading to negative environmental and socio-economic impacts. This work focuses on the Jucar river basin, located in the hinterland of Valencia (Eastern Spain), which is historically affected by long and severe dry periods that negatively impact several economic sectors, with irrigated agriculture representing the main consumptive demand in the basin (79%). Monitoring drought and water scarcity is crucial to activate timely drought management strategies in the basin. However, most traditional drought indexes fail in detecting critical events due to the large presence of human regulation supporting the irrigated agriculture. Over the last 20 years, a sophisticated drought monitoring system has been set up to properly capture the status of the catchment by means of the state index, a weighted linear combination of twelve indicators that depends on observations of precipitation, streamflow, reservoirs’ storages and groundwater levels in representative locations at the basin. In this work, we explore the possibility of predicting the state index, which is currently used only as a monitoring tool, in order to prompt anticipatory actions before the drought/water scarcity event starts. In particular, we test the forecasting skill of retrospective seasonal meteorological predictions from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 4. The 7-months lead time of these products allows predicting in February the values of the state index until September, thus covering the entire agricultural season. Preliminary results suggest that the Sys4-ECMWF products are skillful in predicting the state index, potentially supporting the design of anticipatory drought management actions

Risk Profile and 1-Year Outcome of Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation in Japan - Insights From GARFIELD-AF -

Background: Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective non-interventional study of stroke prevention in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular AF (NAVF) that is being conducted in 35 countries

Management and 1-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease: Results from the prospective garfield-af registry

Background-—Using data from the GARFIELD-AF (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD–Atrial Fibrillation), we evaluated the impact of chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage on clinical outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods and Results-—GARFIELD-AF is a prospective registry of patients from 35 countries, including patients from Asia (China, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand). Consecutive patients enrolled (2013–2016) were classified with no, mild, or moderate-to-severe CKD, based on the National Kidney Foundation’s Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative guidelines. Data on CKD status and outcomes were available for 33 024 of 34 854 patients (including 9491 patients from Asia); 10.9% (n=3613) had moderate-to-severe CKD, 16.9% (n=5595) mild CKD, and 72.1% (n=23 816) no CKD. The use of oral anticoagulants was influenced by stroke risk (ie, post hoc assessment of CHA2DS2-VASc score), but not by CKD stage. The quality of anticoagulant control with vitamin K antagonists did not differ with CKD stage. After adjusting for baseline characteristics and antithrombotic use, both mild and moderate-to-severe CKD were independent risk factors for all-cause mortality. Moderate-to-severe CKD was independently associated with a higher risk of stroke/systemic embolism, major bleeding, new-onset acute coronary syndrome, and new or worsening heart failure. The impact of moderate-to-severe CKD on mortality was significantly greater in patients from Asia than the rest of the world (P=0.001). Conclusions-—In GARFIELD-AF, moderate-to-severe CKD was independently associated with stroke/systemic embolism, major bleeding, and mortality. The effect of moderate-to-severe CKD on mortality was even greater in patients from Asia than the rest of the world

Does sex affect anticoagulant use for stroke prevention in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation? The prospective global anticoagulant registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), women are at higher risk of stroke than men. Using prospective cohort data from a large global population of patients with nonvalvular AF, we sought to identify any differences in the use of anticoagulants for stroke prevention in women and men. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a prospective multicenter observational registry with 858 randomly selected sites in 30 countries. A total of 17 184 patients with newly diagnosed (≤6 weeks) nonvalvular AF and ≥1 additional investigator-defined stroke risk factor(s) were recruited (March 2010 to June 2013). The main outcome measure was the use of anticoagulants (vitamin K antagonists, factor Xa inhibitors, and direct thrombin inhibitors) for stroke prevention at AF diagnosis. Of 17 184 patients enrolled, 43.8% were women. More women than men were at moderate-to-high risk of stroke (CHADS2 score ≥2: 65.1% versus 54.7%). Rates of anticoagulant use were not different overall (60.9% of men versus 60.8% of women) and in patients with a CHADS2 score ≥2 (adjusted odds ratio for women versus men, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-1.09). In patients at low risk (CHA2DS2-VASc of 0 in men and 1 in women), 41.8% of men and 41.1% of women received an anticoagulant. In patients at high risk (CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2), 35.4% of men and 38.4% of women did not receive an anticoagulant. CONCLUSIONS: These contemporary global data show that anticoagulant use for stroke prevention is no different in men and women with nonvalvular AF. Thromboprophylaxis was, however, suboptimal in substantial proportions of men and women, with underuse in those at moderate-to-high risk of stroke and overuse in those at low risk. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362