Quantile forecast combination using stochastic dominance

This paper derives optimal forecast combinations based on stochastic dominance efficiency (SDE) analysis with differential forecast weights for different quantiles of forecast error distribution. For the optimal forecast combination, SDE will minimize the cumulative density functions of the levels of loss at different quantiles of the forecast error distribution by combining different time-series model-based forecasts. Using two exchange rate series on weekly data for the Japanese yen/US dollar and US dollar/Great Britain pound, we find that the optimal forecast combinations with SDE weights perform better than different forecast selection and combination methods for the majority of the cases at different quantiles of the error distribution. However, there are also some very few cases where some other forecast selection and combination model performs equally well at some quantiles of the forecast error distribution. Different forecasting period and quadratic loss function are used to obtain optimal forecast combinations, and results are robust to these choices. The out-of sample performance of the SDE forecast combinations is also better than that of the other forecast selection and combination models we considered

Acute WNT signalling activation perturbs differentiation within the adult stomach and rapidly leads to tumour formation

A role for WNT signalling in gastric carcinogenesis has been suggested due to two major observations. First, patients with germline mutations in adenomatous polyposis coli (APC) are susceptible to stomach polyps and second, in gastric cancer, WNT activation confers a poor prognosis. However, the functional significance of deregulated WNT signalling in gastric homoeostasis and cancer is still unclear. In this study we have addressed this by investigating the immediate effects of WNT signalling activation within the stomach epithelium. We have specifically activated the WNT signalling pathway within the mouse adult gastric epithelium via deletion of either glycogen synthase kinase 3 (GSK3) or APC or via expression of a constitutively active β-catenin protein. WNT pathway deregulation dramatically affects stomach homoeostasis at very short latencies. In the corpus, there is rapid loss of parietal cells with fundic gland polyp (FGP) formation and adenomatous change, which are similar to those observed in familial adenomatous polyposis. In the antrum, adenomas occur from 4 days post-WNT activation. Taken together, these data show a pivotal role for WNT signalling in gastric homoeostasis, FGP formation and adenomagenesis. Loss of the parietal cell population and corresponding FGP formation, an early event in gastric carcinogenesis, as well as antral adenoma formation are immediate effects of nuclear β-catenin translocation and WNT target gene expression. Furthermore, our inducible murine model will permit a better understanding of the molecular changes required to drive tumourigenesis in the stomach

Induction and migration of the anterior visceral endoderm is regulated by the extra-embryonic ectoderm

The anterior visceral endoderm (AVE) is an extra-embryonic tissue required for specifying anterior pattern in the mouse embryo. The AVE is induced at the distal tip of the 5.5 dpc embryo and then migrates to the prospective anterior, where it imparts anterior identity upon the underlying epiblast (the tissue that gives rise to the embryo proper). Little is known about how the AVE is induced and what directs its migration. In this paper, we describe an essential role for another extra-embryonic tissue, the extra-embryonic ectoderm (ExE), in patterning the AVE and epiblast. Removal of the ExE in pre-gastrulation embryos leads to ectopic AVE formation, to a failure of AVE cell migration and to the assumption by the entire epiblast of an anterior identity. Ectopic transplantation of ExE cells inhibits AVE formation and leads to an expansion of the posterior epiblast marker T. These results demonstrate that the ExE restricts the induction of the AVE to the distal tip of the mouse embryo and is required to initiate the migration of these cells to the prospective anterior. Together, these data reveal a novel role for the ExE in the specification of the anteroposterior axis of the mouse embryo

Pleosporales

One hundred and five generic types of Pleosporales are described and illustrated. A brief introduction and detailed history with short notes on morphology, molecular phylogeny as well as a general conclusion of each genus are provided. For those genera where the type or a representative specimen is unavailable, a brief note is given. Altogether 174 genera of Pleosporales are treated. Phaeotrichaceae as well as Kriegeriella, Zeuctomorpha and Muroia are excluded from Pleosporales. Based on the multigene phylogenetic analysis, the suborder Massarineae is emended to accommodate five families, viz. Lentitheciaceae, Massarinaceae, Montagnulaceae, Morosphaeriaceae and Trematosphaeriaceae

A new accuracy measure based on bounded relative error for time series forecasting

Many accuracy measures have been proposed in the past for time series forecasting comparisons. However, many of these measures suffer from one or more issues such as poor resistance to outliers and scale dependence. In this paper, while summarising commonly used accuracy measures, a special review is made on the symmetric mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, a new accuracy measure called the Unscaled Mean Bounded Relative Absolute Error (UMBRAE), which combines the best features of various alternative measures, is proposed to address the common issues of existing measures. A comparative evaluation on the proposed and related measures has been made with both synthetic and real-world data. The results indicate that the proposed measure, with user selectable benchmark, performs as well as or better than other measures on selected criteria. Though it has been commonly accepted that there is no single best accuracy measure, we suggest that UMBRAE could be a good choice to evaluate forecasting methods, especially for cases where measures based on geometric mean of relative errors, such as the geometric mean relative absolute error, are preferred

Subtle effects of environmental stress observed in the early life stages of the Common frog, Rana temporaria

Worldwide amphibian populations are declining due to habitat loss, disease and pollution. Vulnerability to environmental contaminants such as pesticides will be dependent on the species, the sensitivity of the ontogenic life stage and hence the timing of exposure and the exposure pathway. Herein we investigated the biochemical tissue ‘fingerprint’ in spawn and early-stage tadpoles of the Common frog, Rana temporaria, using attenuated total reflection- Fourier-transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy with the objective of observing differences in the biochemical constituents of the respective amphibian tissues due to varying water quality in urban and agricultural ponds. Our results demonstrate that levels of stress (marked by biochemical constituents such as glycogen that are involved in compensatory metabolic mechanisms) can be observed in tadpoles present in the pond most impacted by pollution (nutrients and pesticides), but large annual variability masked any inter-site differences in the frog spawn. ATR-FTIR spectroscopy is capable of detecting differences in tadpoles that are present in selected ponds with different levels of environmental perturbation and thus serves as a rapid and cost effective tool in assessing stress-related effects of pollution in a vulnerable class of organism

Extra-cellular matrix proteins induce matrix metalloproteinase-1 (MMP-1) activity and increase airway smooth muscle contraction in asthma

Airway remodelling describes the histopathological changes leading to fixed airway obstruction in patients with asthma and includes extra-cellular matrix (ECM) deposition. Matrix metalloproteinase-1 (MMP-1) is present in remodelled airways but its relationship with ECM proteins and the resulting functional consequences are unknown. We used airway smooth muscle cells (ASM) and bronchial biopsies from control donors and patients with asthma to examine the regulation of MMP-1 by ECM in ASM cells and the effect of MMP-1 on ASM contraction. Collagen-I and tenascin-C induced MMP-1 protein expression, which for tenascin-C, was greater in asthma derived ASM cells. Tenascin-C induced MMP-1 expression was dependent on ERK1/2, JNK and p38 MAPK activation and attenuated by function blocking antibodies against the β1 and β3 integrin subunits. Tenascin-C and MMP-1 were not expressed in normal airways but co-localised in the ASM bundles and reticular basement membrane of patients with asthma. Further, ECM from asthma derived ASM cells stimulated MMP-1 expression to a greater degree than ECM from normal ASM. Bradykinin induced contraction of ASM cells seeded in 3D collagen gels was reduced by the MMP inhibitor ilomastat and by siRNA knockdown of MMP-1. In summary, the induction of MMP-1 in ASM cells by tenascin-C occurs in part via integrin mediated MAPK signalling. MMP-1 and tenascin-C are co-localised in the smooth muscle bundles of patients with asthma where this interaction may contribute to enhanced airway contraction. Our findings suggest that ECM changes in airway remodelling via MMP-1 could contribute to an environment promoting greater airway narrowing in response to broncho-constrictor stimuli and worsening asthma symptoms

Amyloid Plaques Beyond Aβ: A Survey of the Diverse Modulators of Amyloid Aggregation

Aggregation of the amyloid-β (Aβ) peptide is strongly correlated with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Recent research has improved our understanding of the kinetics of amyloid fibril assembly and revealed new details regarding different stages in plaque formation. Presently, interest is turning toward studying this process in a holistic context, focusing on cellular components which interact with the Aβ peptide at various junctures during aggregation, from monomer to cross-β amyloid fibrils. However, even in isolation, a multitude of factors including protein purity, pH, salt content, and agitation affect Aβ fibril formation and deposition, often producing complicated and conflicting results. The failure of numerous inhibitors in clinical trials for AD suggests that a detailed examination of the complex interactions that occur during plaque formation, including binding of carbohydrates, lipids, nucleic acids, and metal ions, is important for understanding the diversity of manifestations of the disease. Unraveling how a variety of key macromolecular modulators interact with the Aβ peptide and change its aggregation properties may provide opportunities for developing therapies. Since no protein acts in isolation, the interplay of these diverse molecules may differentiate disease onset, progression, and severity, and thus are worth careful consideration

Clostridium difficile infection.

Infection of the colon with the Gram-positive bacterium Clostridium difficile is potentially life threatening, especially in elderly people and in patients who have dysbiosis of the gut microbiota following antimicrobial drug exposure. C. difficile is the leading cause of health-care-associated infective diarrhoea. The life cycle of C. difficile is influenced by antimicrobial agents, the host immune system, and the host microbiota and its associated metabolites. The primary mediators of inflammation in C. difficile infection (CDI) are large clostridial toxins, toxin A (TcdA) and toxin B (TcdB), and, in some bacterial strains, the binary toxin CDT. The toxins trigger a complex cascade of host cellular responses to cause diarrhoea, inflammation and tissue necrosis - the major symptoms of CDI. The factors responsible for the epidemic of some C. difficile strains are poorly understood. Recurrent infections are common and can be debilitating. Toxin detection for diagnosis is important for accurate epidemiological study, and for optimal management and prevention strategies. Infections are commonly treated with specific antimicrobial agents, but faecal microbiota transplants have shown promise for recurrent infections. Future biotherapies for C. difficile infections are likely to involve defined combinations of key gut microbiota

The Herschel-SPIRE Legacy Survey (HSLS): the scientific goals of a shallow and wide submillimeter imaging survey with SPIRE

A large sub-mm survey with Herschel will enable many exciting science opportunities, especially in an era of wide-field optical and radio surveys and high resolution cosmic microwave background experiments. The Herschel-SPIRE Legacy Survey (HSLS), will lead to imaging data over 4000 sq. degrees at 250, 350, and 500 micron. Major Goals of HSLS are: (a) produce a catalog of 2.5 to 3 million galaxies down to 26, 27 and 33 mJy (50% completeness; 5 sigma confusion noise) at 250, 350 and 500 micron, respectively, in the southern hemisphere (3000 sq. degrees) and in an equatorial strip (1000 sq. degrees), areas which have extensive multi-wavelength coverage and are easily accessible from ALMA. Two thirds of the of the sources are expected to be at z > 1, one third at z > 2 and about a 1000 at z > 5. (b) Remove point source confusion in secondary anisotropy studies with Planck and ground-based CMB data. (c) Find at least 1200 strongly lensed bright sub-mm sources leading to a 2% test of general relativity. (d) Identify 200 proto-cluster regions at z of 2 and perform an unbiased study of the environmental dependence of star formation. (e) Perform an unbiased survey for star formation and dust at high Galactic latitude and make a census of debris disks and dust around AGB stars and white dwarfs