Systematic review and meta-analysis of the growth and rupture rates of small abdominal aortic aneurysms: implications for surveillance intervals and their cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Small abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs; 3.0-5.4 cm in diameter) are usually asymptomatic and managed by regular ultrasound surveillance until they grow to a diameter threshold (commonly 5.5 cm) at which surgical intervention is considered. The choice of appropriate surveillance intervals is governed by the growth and rupture rates of small AAAs, as well as their relative cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this series of studies was to inform the evidence base for small AAA surveillance strategies. This was achieved by literature review, collation and analysis of individual patient data, a focus group and health economic modelling. DATA SOURCES: We undertook systematic literature reviews of growth rates and rupture rates of small AAAs. The databases MEDLINE, EMBASE on OvidSP, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials 2009 Issue 4, ClinicalTrials.gov, and controlled-trials.com were searched from inception up until the end of 2009. We also obtained individual data on 15,475 patients from 18 surveillance studies. REVIEW METHODS: Systematic reviews of publications identified 15 studies providing small AAA growth rates, and 14 studies with small AAA rupture rates, up to December 2009 (later updated to September 2012). We developed statistical methods to analyse individual surveillance data, including the effects of patient characteristics, to inform the choice of surveillance intervals and provide inputs for health economic modelling. We updated an existing health economic model of AAA screening to address the cost-effectiveness of different surveillance intervals. RESULTS: In the literature reviews, the mean growth rate was 2.3 mm/year and the reported rupture rates varied between 0 and 1.6 ruptures per 100 person-years. Growth rates increased markedly with aneurysm diameter, but insufficient detail was available to guide surveillance intervals. Based on individual surveillance data, for each 0.5-cm increase in AAA diameter, growth rates increased by about 0.5 mm/year and rupture rates doubled. To control the risk of exceeding 5.5 cm to below 10% in men, on average a 7-year surveillance interval is sufficient for a 3.0-cm aneurysm, whereas an 8-month interval is necessary for a 5.0-cm aneurysm. To control the risk of rupture to below 1%, the corresponding estimated surveillance intervals are 9 years and 17 months. Average growth rates were higher in smokers (by 0.35 mm/year) and lower in patients with diabetes (by 0.51 mm/year). Rupture rates were almost fourfold higher in women than men, doubled in current smokers and increased with higher blood pressure. Increasing the surveillance interval from 1 to 2 years for the smallest aneurysms (3.0-4.4 cm) decreased costs and led to a positive net benefit. For the larger aneurysms (4.5-5.4 cm), increasing surveillance intervals from 3 to 6 months led to equivalent cost-effectiveness. LIMITATIONS: There were no clear reasons why the growth rates varied substantially between studies. Uniform diagnostic criteria for rupture were not available. The long-term cost-effectiveness results may be susceptible to the modelling assumptions made. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance intervals of several years are clinically acceptable for men with AAAs in the range 3.0-4.0 cm. Intervals of around 1 year are suitable for 4.0-4.9-cm AAAs, whereas intervals of 6 months would be acceptable for 5.0-5.4-cm AAAs. These intervals are longer than those currently employed in the UK AAA screening programmes. Lengthening surveillance intervals for the smallest aneurysms was also shown to be cost-effective. Future work should focus on optimising surveillance intervals for women, studying whether or not the threshold for surgery should depend on patient characteristics, evaluating the usefulness of surveillance for those with aortic diameters of 2.5-2.9 cm, and developing interventions that may reduce the growth or rupture rates of small AAAs. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

Discrete Event Simulation for Decision Modeling in Health Care: Lessons from Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening

Markov models are often used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions but they are sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modeling or investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. A Markov model previously demonstrated that a one-off invitation to screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for men aged 65 y in the UK and subsequent follow-up of identified AAAs was likely to be highly cost-effective at thresholds commonly adopted in the UK (£20,000 to £30,000 per quality adjusted life-year). However, new evidence has emerged and the decision problem has evolved to include exploration of the circumstances under which AAA screening may be cost-effective, which the Markov model is not easily able to address. A new model to handle this more complex decision problem was needed, and the case of AAA screening thus provides an illustration of the relative merits of Markov models and discrete event simulation (DES) models. An individual-level DES model was built using the R programming language to reflect possible events and pathways of individuals invited to screening v. those not invited. The model was validated against key events and cost-effectiveness, as observed in a large, randomized trial. Different screening protocol scenarios were investigated to demonstrate the flexibility of the DES. The case of AAA screening highlights the benefits of DES, particularly in the context of screening studies

Using multiple classifiers for predicting the risk of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair re-intervention through hybrid feature selection.

Feature selection is essential in medical area; however, its process becomes complicated with the presence of censoring which is the unique character of survival analysis. Most survival feature selection methods are based on Cox's proportional hazard model, though machine learning classifiers are preferred. They are less employed in survival analysis due to censoring which prevents them from directly being used to survival data. Among the few work that employed machine learning classifiers, partial logistic artificial neural network with auto-relevance determination is a well-known method that deals with censoring and perform feature selection for survival data. However, it depends on data replication to handle censoring which leads to unbalanced and biased prediction results especially in highly censored data. Other methods cannot deal with high censoring. Therefore, in this article, a new hybrid feature selection method is proposed which presents a solution to high level censoring. It combines support vector machine, neural network, and K-nearest neighbor classifiers using simple majority voting and a new weighted majority voting method based on survival metric to construct a multiple classifier system. The new hybrid feature selection process uses multiple classifier system as a wrapper method and merges it with iterated feature ranking filter method to further reduce features. Two endovascular aortic repair datasets containing 91% censored patients collected from two centers were used to construct a multicenter study to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. The results showed the proposed technique outperformed individual classifiers and variable selection methods based on Cox's model such as Akaike and Bayesian information criterions and least absolute shrinkage and selector operator in p values of the log-rank test, sensitivity, and concordance index. This indicates that the proposed classifier is more powerful in correctly predicting the risk of re-intervention enabling doctor in selecting patients' future follow-up plan

Enhancement of 5-aminolaevulinic acid-induced photodynamic therapy in normal rat colon using hydroxypyridinone iron-chelating agents.

© Cancer Research Campaign 1998Full text is available as a scanned copy of the original print version.Currently, the clinical use of 5-aminolaevulinic acid (ALA)-induced protoporphyrin IX (PPIX) for photodynamic therapy (PDT) is limited by the maximum tolerated oral ALA dose (60 mg kg(-1)). This study investigates whether hydroxypyridinone iron-chelating agents can be used to enhance the tissue levels of PPIX, without increasing the administered dose of ALA. Quantitative charge-coupled device (CCD) fluorescence microscopy was employed to study PPIX fluorescence pharmacokinetics in the colon of normal Wistar rats. The iron chelator, CP94, when administered with ALA was found to produce double the PPIX fluorescence in the colonic mucosa, compared with the same dose of ALA given alone and to be more effective than the other iron chelator studied, CP20. Microspectrofluorimetric studies demonstrated that PPIX was the predominant porphyrin species present. PDT studies conducted on the colonic mucosa showed that the simultaneous administration of 100 mg kg(-1) CP94 i.v. and 50 mg kg(-1) ALA i.v. produced an area of necrosis three times larger than similar parameters without the iron-chelating agent with the same light dose. It is possible, therefore, to increase the amount of necrosis produced by ALA-induced PDT substantially, without increasing the administered dose of ALA, through the simultaneous administration of the iron-chelating agent, CP94.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.DUSA Pharmaceutical

Sex differences in mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in the UK

Background The UK abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening programmes currently invite only men for screening because the benefit in women is uncertain. Perioperative risk is critical in determining the effectiveness of screening, and contemporary estimates of these risks in women are lacking. The aim of this study was to compare mortality following AAA repair between women and men in the UK. Methods Anonymized data from the UK National Vascular Registry (NVR) for patients undergoing AAA repair (January 2010 to December 2014) were analysed. Co-variables were extracted for analysis by sex. The primary outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcome measures included mortality by 5-year age groups and duration of hospital stay. Logistic regression was performed to adjust for age, calendar time, AAA diameter and smoking status. NVR-based outcomes were checked against Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data. Results A total of 23 245 patients were included (13·0 per cent women). Proportionally, more women than men underwent open repair. For elective open AAA repair, the in-hospital mortality rate was 6·9 per cent in women and 4·0 per cent in men (odds ratio (OR) 1·48, 95 per cent c.i. 1·08 to 2·02; P = 0·014), whereas for elective endovascular AAA repair it was 1·8 per cent in women and 0·7 per cent in men (OR 2·86, 1·72 to 4·74; P < 0·001); the results in HES were similar. For ruptured AAA, there was no sex difference in mortality within the NVR; however, in HES, for ruptured open AAA repair, the in-hospital mortality rate was higher in women (33·6 versus 27·1 per cent; OR 1·36, 1·16 to 1·59; P < 0·001). Conclusion Women have a higher in-hospital mortality rate than men after elective AAA repair even after adjustment. This higher mortality may have an impact on the benefit offered by any screening programme offered to women.D.A.S. and A.S. are funded by the UK NIHR. This paper was written in collaboration with members of the SWAN project, a modelling study to examine the potential clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of AAA screening in women (www.nets.nihr.ac.uk/projects/hta/1417901). The SWAN project was funded by the UK NIHR HTA programme (project number 14/179/01). The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the HTA programme, NIHR, NHS or the Department of Health. The aspect of this paper relating to the analysis of HES presents independent research funded by the NIHR under the Programme Grants for Applied Research programme (RP-PG-1210-12009). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health

Cardiac rehabilitation versus standard care after aortic aneurysm repair (Aneurysm CaRe): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal and thoracic aortic aneurysms (A/TAA) are an important cause of mortality amongst the older population. Although A/TAA repair can be performed with low peri-operative risk, overall life expectancy remains poor in the years that follow surgery. The majority of deaths are caused by heart attack or stroke, which can both be prevented by cardiac rehabilitation (CR) in patients with clinically-manifest coronary artery disease. A Cochrane review has urged researchers to widen the use of CR to other populations with severe cardiovascular risk, and patients surviving A/TAA repair appear ideal candidates. However, it is unknown whether CR is feasible or acceptable to A/TAA patients, who are a decade older than those currently enrolling in CR. Aneurysm-CaRe is a feasibility randomised controlled trial (RCT) that will address these issues. METHODS AND DESIGN: Aneurysm-CaRe is a pilot RCT of CR versus standard care after A/TAA repair, with the primary objectives of estimating enrolment to a trial of CR after A/TAA repair and estimating compliance with CR amongst patients with A/TAA. Aneurysm-CaRe will randomise 84 patients at two sites. Patients discharged from hospital after elective A/TAA repair will be randomised to standard care or enrolment in their local CR programme with a protocolised approach to medical cardiovascular risk reduction. The primary outcome measures are enrolment in the RCT and compliance with CR. Secondary outcomes will include phenotypic markers of cardiovascular risk and smoking cessation, alongside disease-specific and generic quality-of-life measures. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 65746249 5 June 2014

Narratives for drug design

We explore the role of narratives of complex systems in anti-cancer drug design. We set out the value of narratives relating to cancer in promoting awareness of risky behaviour and in supporting decision-making regarding treatment options. We present cancer as a dysregulated, complex system that has emergent behaviours at multiple scales, and is governed by dynamical spatio-temporal processes. We show that this system changes structure and function in response to anti-cancer drugs, and explain that these changes are sufficiently complex to impede effective drug design. We pose what narrative might offer to support the process of drug design, providing an example of work done to date that might serve as a foundation for narrating complexity. We suggest ways of using this work combined with that of others to begin to consider narrating drug design

Thermal conductivity measurement of liquids in a microfluidic device

A new microfluidic-based approach to measuring liquid thermal conductivity is developed to address the requirement in many practical applications for measurements using small (microlitre) sample size and integration into a compact device. The approach also gives the possibility of high-throughput testing. A resistance heater and temperature sensor are incorporated into a glass microfluidic chip to allow transmission and detection of a planar thermal wave crossing a thin layer of the sample. The device is designed so that heat transfer is locally one-dimensional during a short initial time period. This allows the detected temperature transient to be separated into two distinct components: a short-time, purely one-dimensional part from which sample thermal conductivity can be determined and a remaining long-time part containing the effects of three-dimensionality and of the finite size of surrounding thermal reservoirs. Identification of the one-dimensional component yields a steady temperature difference from which sample thermal conductivity can be determined. Calibration is required to give correct representation of changing heater resistance, system layer thicknesses and solid material thermal conductivities with temperature. In this preliminary study, methanol/water mixtures are measured at atmospheric pressure over the temperature range 30–50°C. The results show that the device has produced a measurement accuracy of within 2.5% over the range of thermal conductivity and temperature of the tests. A relation between measurement uncertainty and the geometric and thermal properties of the system is derived and this is used to identify ways that error could be further reduced

Is there a relationship between weather conditions and aortic dissection?

BACKGROUND: Bleeding and rupture of blood vessels has been correlated with weather conditions in the past. This is the first study in the world literature with the aim of investigating the relationship between atmospheric pressure and temperature with the presentation of aortic dissection. METHODS: The dates of all emergency aortic dissection repairs from 1996–2002 in a regional cardiothoracic unit at Blackpool Victoria Hospital were obtained. Hourly temperature and pressure data from a regional weather station for this time period was supplied by the Meteorological Office. The mean and standard deviation of hourly temperature and pressure data for that month were compared to the mean and standard deviation of the data 24 and 48 hours prior to the aortic dissection. RESULTS: 26 patients were found to have been operated on during the time period studied. There was no statistically significant correlation between temperature or atmospheric pressure readings, and the incidence of aortic dissection, using a Bonferonni-corrected significance p-value of 0.005 CONCLUSION: This study is the first to examine the relationship between atmospheric pressure, temperature and dissecting thoracic aorta. No statistically significant relationship was demonstrable

Phase I/II study of verteporfin photodynamic therapy in locally advanced pancreatic cancer

Background:Patients with pancreatic cancer have a poor prognosis apart from the few suitable for surgery. Photodynamic therapy (PDT) produces localised tissue necrosis but previous studies using the photosensitiser meso-tetrahydroxyphenylchlorin (mTHPC) caused prolonged skin photosensitivity. This study assessed a shorter acting photosensitiser, verteporfin.Methods: Fifteen inoperable patients with locally advanced cancers were sensitised with 0.4 mg kg-1 verteporfin. After 60-90 min, laser light (690 nm) was delivered via single (13 patients) or multiple (2 patients) fibres positioned percutaneously under computed tomography (CT) guidance, the light dose escalating (initially 5 J, doubling after each three patients) until 12 mm of necrosis was achieved consistently.Results:In all, 12 mm lesions were seen consistently at 40 J, but with considerable variation in necrosis volume (mean volume 3.5 cm 3 at 40 J). Minor, self-limiting extrapancreatic effects were seen in multifibre patients. No adverse interactions were seen in patients given chemotherapy or radiotherapy before or after PDT. After PDT, one patient underwent an R0 Whipple's pancreaticoduodenectomy.Conclusions:Verteporfin PDT-induced tumour necrosis in locally advanced pancreatic cancer is feasible and safe. It can be delivered with a much shorter drug light interval and with less photosensitivity than with older compounds. © 2014 Cancer Research UK