Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

Horizon scan of conservation issues for inland waters in Canada

Horizon scanning is a systematic approach increasingly used to explore emerging trends, issues, opportunities, and threats in conservation. We present the results from one such exercise aimed at identifying emerging issues that could have important scientific, social, technological, and managerial implications for the conservation of inland waters in Canada in the proximate future. We recognized six opportunities and nine challenges, for which we provide research implications and policy options, such that scientists, policy makers, and the Canadian society as a whole can prepare for a potential growth in each of the topic areas we identified. The issues spanned a broad range of topics, from recognizing the opportunities and challenges of community-enabled science and the need to consider the legal rights of nature, to the likely increase of pharmaceuticals in wastewater due to an aging population. These issues represent a first baseline that could help decision makers identify and prioritize efforts while simultaneously stimulate new research avenues. We hope our horizon scan will pave the way for similar exercises related to the conservation of biodiversity in Canada.This project was organized with the support of the Groupe de recherche Interuniversitaire en Limnologie, and the Liber Ero Chair at McGill University. IGE, RB, MC, SJC, AH acknowledge support from the Canada Research Chairs program, and KG, CB and NSG acknowledge funding from the NSERC-funded LakePulse Network. WJS is funded by Arcadia. The authors also thank Sara Pancheri for developing Figure 1a. Finally, we would like to thank Amanda K. Winegardner, who was an active participant in the workshop and provided substantial edits and comments of the manuscript

The effects of warming on the ecophysiology of two co-existing kelp species with contrasting distributions

The northeast Atlantic has warmed significantly since the early 1980s, leading to shifts in species distributions and changes in the structure and functioning of communities and ecosystems. This study investigated the effects of increased temperature on two co-existing habitat-forming kelps: Laminaria digitata, a northern boreal species, and Laminaria ochroleuca, a southern Lusitanian species, to shed light on mechanisms underpinning responses of trailing and leading edge populations to warming. Kelp sporophytes collected from southwest United Kingdom were maintained under 3 treatments: ambient temperature (12 °C), +3 °C (15 °C) and +6 °C (18 °C) for 16 days. At higher temperatures, L. digitata showed a decline in growth rates and Fv/Fm, an increase in chemical defence production and a decrease in palatability. In contrast, L. ochroleuca demonstrated superior growth and photosynthesis at temperatures higher than current ambient levels, and was more heavily grazed. Whilst the observed decreased palatability of L. digitata held at higher temperatures could reduce top-down pressure on marginal populations, field observations of grazer densities suggest that this may be unimportant within the study system. Overall, our study suggests that shifts in trailing edge populations will be primarily driven by ecophysiological responses to high temperatures experienced during current and predicted thermal maxima, and although compensatory mechanisms may reduce top-down pressure on marginal populations, this is unlikely to be important within the current biogeographical context. Better understanding of the mechanisms underpinning climate-driven range shifts is important for habitat-forming species like kelps, which provide organic matter, create biogenic structure and alter environmental conditions for associated communities

Thermal Variability Increases the Impact of Autumnal Warming and Drives Metabolic Depression in an Overwintering Butterfly

Increases in thermal variability elevate metabolic rate due to Jensen's inequality, and increased metabolic rate decreases the fitness of dormant ectotherms by increasing consumption of stored energy reserves. Theory predicts that ectotherms should respond to increased thermal variability by lowering the thermal sensitivity of metabolism, which will reduce the impact of the warm portion of thermal variability. We examined the thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate of overwintering Erynnis propertius (Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae) larvae from a stable or variable environment reared in the laboratory in a reciprocal common garden design, and used these data to model energy use during the winters of 1973–2010 using meteorological data to predict the energetic outcomes of metabolic compensation and phenological shifts. Larvae that experienced variable temperatures had decreased thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate, and were larger than those reared at stable temperatures, which could partially compensate for the increased energetic demands. Even with depressed thermal sensitivity, the variable environment was more energy-demanding than the stable, with the majority of this demand occurring in autumn. Autumn phenology changes thus had disproportionate influence on energy consumption in variable environments, and variable-reared larvae were most susceptible to overwinter energy drain. Therefore the energetic impacts of the timing of entry into winter dormancy will strongly influence ectotherm fitness in northern temperate environments. We conclude that thermal variability drives the expression of metabolic suppression in this species; that phenological shifts will have a greater impact on ectotherms in variable thermal environments; and that E. propertius will be more sensitive to shifts in phenology in autumn than in spring. This suggests that increases in overwinter thermal variability and/or extended, warm autumns, will negatively impact all non-feeding dormant ectotherms which lack the ability to suppress their overwinter metabolic thermal sensitivity

The Financial Burden of Non-Communicable Chronic Diseases in Rural Nigeria: Wealth and Gender Heterogeneity in Health Care Utilization and Health Expenditures

Objectives Better insights into health care utilization and out-of-pocket expenditures for non-communicable chronic diseases (NCCD) are needed to develop accessible health care and limit the increasing financial burden of NCCDs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods A household survey was conducted in rural Kwara State, Nigeria, among 5,761 individuals. Data were obtained using biomedical and socio-economic questionnaires. Health care utilization, NCCD-related health expenditures and distances to health care providers were compared by sex and by wealth quintile, and a Heckman regression model was used to estimate health expenditures taking selection bias in health care utilization into account. Results The prevalence of NCCDs in our sample was 6.2%. NCCD-affected individuals from the wealthiest quintile utilized formal health care nearly twice as often as those from the lowest quintile (87.8% vs 46.2%, p = 0.002). Women reported foregone formal care more often than men (43.5% vs. 27.0%, p = 0.058). Health expenditures relative to annual consumption of the poorest quintile exceeded those of the highest quintile 2.2-fold, and the poorest quintile exhibited a higher rate of catastrophic health spending (10.8% among NCCD-affected households) than the three upper quintiles (4.2% to 6.7%). Long travel distances to the nearest provider, highest for the poorest quintile, were a significant deterrent to seeking care. Using distance to the nearest facility as instrument to account for selection into health care utilization, we estimated out-of-pocket health care expenditures for NCCDs to be significantly higher in the lowest wealth quintile compared to the three upper quintiles. Conclusions Facing potentially high health care costs and poor accessibility of health care facilities, many individuals suffering from NCCDs—particularly women and the poor—forego formal care, thereby increasing the risk of more severe illness in the future. When seeking care, the poor spend less on treatment than the rich, suggestive of lower quality care, while their expenditures represent a higher share of their annual household consumption. This calls for targeted interventions that enhance health care accessibility and provide financial protection from the consequences of NCCDs, especially for vulnerable populations

Evidence for rangewide panmixia despite multiple barriers to dispersal in a marine mussel

Oceanographic features shape the distributional and genetic patterns of marine species by interrupting or promoting connections among populations. Although general patterns commonly arise, distributional ranges and genetic structure are species-specific and do not always comply with the expected trends. By applying a multimarker genetic approach combined with Lagrangian particle simulations (LPS) we tested the hypothesis that oceanographic features along northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean shores influence dispersal potential and genetic structure of the intertidal mussel Perna perna. Additionally, by performing environmental niche modelling we assessed the potential and realized niche of P. perna along its entire native distributional range and the environmental factors that best explain its realized distribution. Perna perna showed evidence of panmixia across > 4,000 km despite several oceanographic breaking points detected by LPS. This is probably the result of a combination of life history traits, continuous habitat availability and stepping-stone dynamics. Moreover, the niche modelling framework depicted minimum sea surface temperatures (SST) as the major factor shaping P. perna distributional range limits along its native areas. Forthcoming warming SST is expected to further change these limits and allow the species to expand its range polewards though this may be accompanied by retreat from warmer areas.Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT-MEC, Portugal) [UID/Multi/04326/2013, IF/01413/2014/CP1217/CT0004]; South African Research Chairs Initiative (SARChI) of the Department of Science and Technology; National Research Foundation; South African National Research Foundation (NRF); Portuguese Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT) [SFRH/BPD/85040/2012, SFRH/BPD/111003/2015]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Coping with Temperature at the Warm Edge – Patterns of Thermal Adaptation in the Microbial Eukaryote Paramecium caudatum

Ectothermic organisms are thought to be severely affected by global warming since their physiological performance is directly dependent on temperature. Latitudinal and temporal variations in mean temperatures force ectotherms to adapt to these complex environmental conditions. Studies investigating current patterns of thermal adaptation among populations of different latitudes allow a prediction of the potential impact of prospective increases in environmental temperatures on their fitness.In this study, temperature reaction norms were ascertained among 18 genetically defined, natural clones of the microbial eukaryote Paramecium caudatum. These different clones have been isolated from 12 freshwater habitats along a latitudinal transect in Europe and from 3 tropical habitats (Indonesia). The sensitivity to increasing temperatures was estimated through the analysis of clone specific thermal tolerances and by relating those to current and predicted temperature data of their natural habitats. All investigated European clones seem to be thermal generalists with a broad thermal tolerance and similar optimum temperatures. The weak or missing co-variation of thermal tolerance with latitude does not imply local adaptation to thermal gradients; it rather suggests adaptive phenotypic plasticity among the whole European subpopulation. The tested Indonesian clones appear to be locally adapted to the less variable, tropical temperature regime and show higher tolerance limits, but lower tolerance breadths.Due to the lack of local temperature adaptation within the European subpopulation, P. caudatum genotypes at the most southern edge of their geographic range seem to suffer from the predicted increase in magnitude and frequency of summer heat waves caused by climate change

Grandparental immune priming in the pipefish Syngnathus typhle

Background: Phenotypic changes in response to environmental influences can persist from one generation into the next. In many systems parental parasite experience influences offspring immune responses, known as transgenerational immune priming (TGIP). TGIP in vertebrates is mainly maternal and short-term, supporting the adaptive immune system of the offspring during its maturation. However, if fathers and offspring have a close physical connection, evolution of additional paternal immune priming can be adaptive. Biparental TGIP may result in maximized immunological protection. Here, we investigate multigenerational biparental TGIP in the sex-role reversed pipefish Syngnathus typhle by exposing grandparents to an immune challenge with heat-killed bacteria and assessing gene expression (44 target genes) of the F2-generation. Results: Grandparental immune challenge induced gene expression of immune genes in one-week-old grandoffspring. Similarly, genes mediating epigenetic regulation including DNA-methylation and histone modifications were involved in grandparental immune priming. While grand-maternal impact was strong on genes of the complement component system, grand-paternal exposure changed expression patterns of genes mediating innate immune defense. Conclusion: In a system with male pregnancy, grandparents influenced the immune system of their grandoffspring in a sex-specific manner, demonstrating multigenerational biparental TGIP. The involvement of epigenetic effects suggests that TGIP via the paternal line may not be limited to the pipefish system that displays male pregnancy. While the benefits and costs of grandparental TGIP depend on the temporal heterogeneity of environmental conditions, multigenerational TGIP may affect host-parasite coevolution by dampening the amplitude of Red Queen Dynamics