Rapid linear pyrolysis of composite solid propellant ingredients Final report

Rapid linear pyrolysis of thermoplastic solid fuels by intense heat flux levels to simulate combustio

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results

This paper presents a preface to this Special Issue on the results of the QUEST-GSI (Global Scale Impacts) project on climate change impacts on catchment-scale water resources. A detailed description of the unified methodology, subsequently used in all studies in this issue, is provided. The project method involved running simulations of catchment-scale hydrology using a unified set of past and future climate scenarios, to enable a consistent analysis of the climate impacts around the globe. These scenarios include "policy-relevant" prescribed warming scenarios. This is followed by a synthesis of the key findings. Overall, the studies indicate that in most basins the models project substantial changes to river flow, beyond that observed in the historical record, but that in many cases there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes. The implications of this for adaptation activities are discussed

Association between somatic cell count early in the first lactation and the lifetime milk yield of cows in Irish dairy herds

Change in lifetime milk yield is an important component of the cost of diseases in dairy cows. Knowledge of the likelihood and scale of potential savings through disease prevention measures is important to evaluate how much expenditure on control measures is rational. The aim of this study was to assess the association between somatic cell count (SCC) at 5 to 30 d in milk during parity 1 (SCC1), and lifetime milk yield for cows in Irish dairy herds. The data set studied included records from 53,652 cows in 5,922 Irish herds. This was split into 2 samples of 2,500 and 3,422 herds at random. Linear models with lifetime milk yield and first-lactation milk yield as the outcomes and random effects to account for variation between herds were fitted to the data for the first sample of herds; data for the second sample were used for cross-validation. The models were developed in a Bayesian framework to include all uncertainty in posterior predictions and parameters were estimated from 10,000 Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The final model was a good fit to the data and appeared generalizable to other Irish herds. A unit increase in the natural logarithm of SCC1 was associated with a median decrease in lifetime milk yield of 864kg, and a median decrease in first-lactation milk yield of 105kg. To clarify the meaning of the results in context, microsimulation was used to model the trajectory of individual cows, and evaluate the expected outcomes for particular changes in the herd-level prevalence of cows with SCC1 ≥400,000cells/mL. Differences in mean lifetime milk yield associated with these changes were multiplied by an estimated gross margin for each cow to give the potential difference in milk revenue. Results were presented as probabilities of savings; for example, a 75% probability of savings of at least€97 or€115/heifer calved into the herd existed if the prevalence of cows with SCC1 ≥400,000cells/mL was reduced from ≥20 to <10 or <5%, respectively, and at least€71/heifer calved into the herd if the prevalence of cows with SCC1 ≥400,000cells/mL was reduced from ≥10 to <5%. The results indicate large differences in lifetime milk yield, depending on SCC early in the first lactation and the findings can be used to assess where specific interventions to control heifer mastitis prepartum are likely to be cost effective. Key words: dairy heifer, somatic cell count, lifetime milk yiel

A national survey of services for the prevention and management of falls in the UK

Background: The National Health Service (NHS) was tasked in 2001 with developing service provision to prevent falls in older people. We carried out a national survey to provide a description of health and social care funded UK fallers services, and to benchmark progress against current practice guidelines. Methods: Cascade approach to sampling, followed by telephone survey with senior member of the fall service. Characteristics of the service were assessed using an internationally agreed taxonomy. Reported service provision was compared against benchmarks set by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE). Results: We identified 303 clinics across the UK. 231 (76%) were willing to participate. The majority of services were based in acute or community hospitals, with only a few in primary care or emergency departments. Access to services was, in the majority of cases, by health professional referral. Most services undertook a multi-factorial assessment. The content and quality of these assessments varied substantially. Services varied extensively in the way that interventions were delivered, and particular concern is raised about interventions for vision, home hazard modification, medication review and bone health. Conclusion: The most common type of service provision was a multi-factorial assessment and intervention. There were a wide range of service models, but for a substantial number of services, delivery appears to fall below recommended NICE guidance

Quantum Hall Conductivity in a Landau Type Model with a Realistic Geometry

In this paper, we revisit some quantum mechanical aspects related to the Quantum Hall Effect. We consider a Landau type model, paying a special attention to the experimental and geometrical features of Quantum Hall experiments. The resulting formalism is then used to compute explicitely the Hall conductivity from a Kubo formula.Comment: LaTeX, 1 eps figur

Learning to coordinate in a complex and non-stationary world

We study analytically and by computer simulations a complex system of adaptive agents with finite memory. Borrowing the framework of the Minority Game and using the replica formalism we show the existence of an equilibrium phase transition as a function of the ratio between the memory $\lambda$ and the learning rates $\Gamma$ of the agents. We show that, starting from a random configuration, a dynamic phase transition also exists, which prevents the system from reaching any Nash equilibria. Furthermore, in a non-stationary environment, we show by numerical simulations that agents with infinite memory play worst than others with less memory and that the dynamic transition naturally arises independently from the initial conditions.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Quantum Memories. A Review based on the European Integrated Project "Qubit Applications (QAP)"

We perform a review of various approaches to the implementation of quantum memories, with an emphasis on activities within the quantum memory sub-project of the EU Integrated Project "Qubit Applications". We begin with a brief overview over different applications for quantum memories and different types of quantum memories. We discuss the most important criteria for assessing quantum memory performance and the most important physical requirements. Then we review the different approaches represented in "Qubit Applications" in some detail. They include solid-state atomic ensembles, NV centers, quantum dots, single atoms, atomic gases and optical phonons in diamond. We compare the different approaches using the discussed criteria.Comment: 22 pages, 12 figure

Validation of Dunbar's number in Twitter conversations

Modern society's increasing dependency on online tools for both work and recreation opens up unique opportunities for the study of social interactions. A large survey of online exchanges or conversations on Twitter, collected across six months involving 1.7 million individuals is presented here. We test the theoretical cognitive limit on the number of stable social relationships known as Dunbar's number. We find that users can entertain a maximum of 100-200 stable relationships in support for Dunbar's prediction. The "economy of attention" is limited in the online world by cognitive and biological constraints as predicted by Dunbar's theory. Inspired by this empirical evidence we propose a simple dynamical mechanism, based on finite priority queuing and time resources, that reproduces the observed social behavior.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Dissolved noble gases and stable isotopes as tracers of preferential fluid flow along faults in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany

Groundwater in shallow unconsolidated sedimentary aquifers close to the Bornheim fault in the Lower Rhine Embayment (LRE), Germany, has relatively low δ2H and δ18O values in comparison to regional modern groundwater recharge, and 4He concentrations up to 1.7 × 10−4 cm3 (STP) g–1 ± 2.2 % which is approximately four orders of magnitude higher than expected due to solubility equilibrium with the atmosphere. Groundwater age dating based on estimated in situ production and terrigenic flux of helium provides a groundwater residence time of ∼107 years. Although fluid exchange between the deep basal aquifer system and the upper aquifer layers is generally impeded by confining clay layers and lignite, this study’s geochemical data suggest, for the first time, that deep circulating fluids penetrate shallow aquifers in the locality of fault zones, implying  that sub-vertical fluid flow occurs along faults in the LRE. However, large hydraulic-head gradients observed across many faults suggest that they act as barriers to lateral groundwater flow. Therefore, the geochemical data reported here also substantiate a conduit-barrier model of fault-zone hydrogeology in unconsolidated sedimentary deposits, as well as corroborating the concept that faults in unconsolidated aquifer systems can act as loci for hydraulic connectivity between deep and shallow aquifers. The implications of fluid flow along faults in sedimentary basins worldwide are far reaching and of particular concern for carbon capture and storage (CCS) programmes, impacts of deep shale gas recovery for shallow groundwater aquifers, and nuclear waste storage sites where fault zones could act as potential leakage pathways for hazardous fluids