Spreading Patterns of the Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic

We investigate the dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1/S-OIV) pandemic by analyzing data obtained from World Health Organization containing the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases of infections - by country - in a period of 69 days, from 26 April to 3 July, 2009. Specifically, we find evidence of exponential growth in the total number of confirmed cases and linear growth in the number of countries with confirmed cases. We also find that, i) at early stages, the cumulative distribution of cases among countries exhibits linear behavior on log-log scale, being well approximated by a power law decay; ii) for larger times, the cumulative distribution presents a systematic curvature on log-log scale, indicating a gradual change to lognormal behavior. Finally, we compare these empirical findings with the predictions of a simple stochastic model. Our results could help to select more realistic models of the dynamics of influenza-type pandemics

Vulnerability of Brazilian municipalities to hantavirus infections based on multi‑criteria decision analysis

Background: Hantavirus infection is an emerging zoonosis transmitted by wild rodents. In Brazil, high case-fatality rates among humans infected with hantavirus are of serious concern to public health authorities. Appropriate preventive measures partly depend on reliable knowledge about the geographical distribution of this disease. Methods: Incidence of hantavirus infections in Brazil (1993–2013) was analyzed. Epidemiological, socioeconomic, and demographic indicators were also used to classify cities’ vulnerability to disease by means of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Results: From 1993 to 2013, 1752 cases of hantavirus were registered in 16 Brazilian states. The highest incidence of hantavirus was observed in the states of Mato Grosso (0.57/100,000) and Santa Catarina (0.13/100,000). Based on MCDA analysis, municipalities in the southern, southeastern, and midwestern regions of Brazil can be classified as highly vulnerable. Most municipalities in northern and northeastern Brazil were classified as having low vulnerability to hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome. Conclusions: Although most human infections by hantavirus registered in Brazil occurred in the southern region of the country, a greater vulnerability to hantavirus was found in the Brazilian Midwest. This result reflects the need to strengthen surveillance where the disease has thus far gone unreported

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO