Identification and selection of potential sites for onshore wind farms development in Region of Murcia, Spain

It is often advisable to combine spatial representation tools such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with Multi criteria Decision Making Methods (MCDM) when solving location complex problems. The current case refers to the search for and selection of sites for onshore wind farms on the coast of the Region of Murcia, in the southeast of Spain. When resolving the proposed problem, the legal restrictions and the criteria (wind speed, area, slope, etc.) that influence the location will be considered. These will be defined in the form of thematic layers that will be entered into the GIS. Restrictions will be imposed taking into account the legislative framework of the study area so that, through their analysis and editing, it will be possible to reduce the initial area and obtain suitable sites where this type of facilities can be installed. Moreover, as the objective of the study is to select the locations and obtain a ranking two different models will be applied, initially a categorical assessment through a lexicographic order will be performed using the tools available in the GIS and, later it will be applied the ELECTRE-TRI methodology will be applied in order to make a comparison between the methods.This work is partially supported by FEDER funds, the DGICYT and Junta de Andalucía under projects TIN2011-27696-C02-01 and P11-TIC-8001, respectively

Forgetting as a way to avoid deception in a repeated imitation game

Adversarial decision making is aimed at determining optimal decision strategies to deal with an adaptive opponent. A clear example of such situation is the repeated imitation game presented here. Two agents compete in an adversarial model where one agent wants to learn how to imitate the actions taken by the other agent by means of the observation and memorization of the past actions. One defense against this adversary is to make decisions that are intended to confuse him. To achieve this, randomized strategies that change along time for one of the agents are proposed and their performance is analysed from both a theoretical and empirical point of view. We also study the ability of the imitator to avoid deception and adapt to a new behaviour by forgetting the oldest observations. The results confirm that wrong assumptions about the imitator’s behaviour lead to dramatic losses due to a failure in causing deception.Grupo de investigación TIC-169: Modelos de Decisión y Optimización (MODO

Optimisation problems as decision problems: The case of fuzzy optimisation problems

The importance that decision-making problems and optimisation problems have today in all aspects of life is beyond all doubt. Despite that importance, both problems tend to be thought of as following different routes, when they have, in fact, a “symbiotic” relation. Here, we consider the different decision problems that arise when different kinds of information and framework of behaviour are considered, and we explore the corresponding optimisation problems that can be derived for searching the best possible decision. We explore the case where Fuzzy Mathematical Programming problems are obtained as well as other new ones in the fuzzy context.Research supported by the project TIN2014-55024-P from the Spanish Govern as well as by the project TIC-8001 from the Andalusian Govern (both financed with FEDER funds)

An approach to identify solutions of interest from multi and many-objective optimization problems

The result of a multiobjective or a many-objective optimization problem is a large set of non-dominated solutions. Once the Pareto Front (or a good approximation of it) has been found, then providing the decision maker with a smaller set of “interesting solutions” is a key step. Here, the focus is on how to select such a set of solutions of interest which, in contrast to previous approaches that relied on geometrical features, is carried out considering the decision maker’s preferences. The proposed a posteriori approach consists in assigning an interval of potential scores to every solution, where such scores depend on the decision maker’s preferences. The solutions are then compared and filtered according to their corresponding intervals, using a recently proposed possibility degree formula. Three examples, with two, three and many objectives are used to show the benefits of the proposal.D. A. Pelta and M. T. Lamata acknowledge support through Project TIN2017-86647-P from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (including European Regional Development Funds). M. Torres enjoys a Ph.D. research training staff grant associated with the Project TIN2014-55024-P from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and co-funded by the European Social Fund. R. Yager acknowledges the support of the United States Office of Naval Research (ONR)

Decision-Making for Risk Management in Sustainable Renewable Energy Facilities: A Case Study in the Dominican Republic

Today, Renewable Energy Sources (RES) are a key pillar to achieving sustainable development, which is the main reason why energy projects are being carried out not only in developed countries but also in many emerging countries. Since the technical and financial risk remains a major barrier to financing renewable energy projects, several mechanisms are available to reduce risks on investment into clean energy projects. This paper discusses risk management tools in solar photovoltaic facilities based on the guide to the Project Management (PMBOK Guide). To do this, a combination of different decision-making methodologies will be carried out. These methodologies enable to not only extract the knowledge by experts but also to know the causes and effects that help to make the best decision. In order to do so, techniques to seek information (Delphi and Checklist) as well as diagram techniques such as cause and effect diagrams or Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) are applied. The categorization and prioritization of risks will be carried out through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Finally, a sensitivity analysis will allow for providing consistency to the obtained results. A real case in the Dominican Republic will also be presented as case study

Treatment with tocilizumab or corticosteroids for COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammatory state: a multicentre cohort study (SAM-COVID-19)

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the association between tocilizumab or corticosteroids and the risk of intubation or death in patients with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) with a hyperinflammatory state according to clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods: A cohort study was performed in 60 Spanish hospitals including 778 patients with COVID-19 and clinical and laboratory data indicative of a hyperinflammatory state. Treatment was mainly with tocilizumab, an intermediate-high dose of corticosteroids (IHDC), a pulse dose of corticosteroids (PDC), combination therapy, or no treatment. Primary outcome was intubation or death; follow-up was 21 days. Propensity score-adjusted estimations using Cox regression (logistic regression if needed) were calculated. Propensity scores were used as confounders, matching variables and for the inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTWs). Results: In all, 88, 117, 78 and 151 patients treated with tocilizumab, IHDC, PDC, and combination therapy, respectively, were compared with 344 untreated patients. The primary endpoint occurred in 10 (11.4%), 27 (23.1%), 12 (15.4%), 40 (25.6%) and 69 (21.1%), respectively. The IPTW-based hazard ratios (odds ratio for combination therapy) for the primary endpoint were 0.32 (95%CI 0.22-0.47; p < 0.001) for tocilizumab, 0.82 (0.71-1.30; p 0.82) for IHDC, 0.61 (0.43-0.86; p 0.006) for PDC, and 1.17 (0.86-1.58; p 0.30) for combination therapy. Other applications of the propensity score provided similar results, but were not significant for PDC. Tocilizumab was also associated with lower hazard of death alone in IPTW analysis (0.07; 0.02-0.17; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Tocilizumab might be useful in COVID-19 patients with a hyperinflammatory state and should be prioritized for randomized trials in this situatio

CARB-ES-19 Multicenter Study of Carbapenemase-Producing Klebsiella pneumoniae and Escherichia coli From All Spanish Provinces Reveals Interregional Spread of High-Risk Clones Such as ST307/OXA-48 and ST512/KPC-3

ObjectivesCARB-ES-19 is a comprehensive, multicenter, nationwide study integrating whole-genome sequencing (WGS) in the surveillance of carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniae (CP-Kpn) and E. coli (CP-Eco) to determine their incidence, geographical distribution, phylogeny, and resistance mechanisms in Spain.MethodsIn total, 71 hospitals, representing all 50 Spanish provinces, collected the first 10 isolates per hospital (February to May 2019); CPE isolates were first identified according to EUCAST (meropenem MIC &gt; 0.12 mg/L with immunochromatography, colorimetric tests, carbapenem inactivation, or carbapenem hydrolysis with MALDI-TOF). Prevalence and incidence were calculated according to population denominators. Antibiotic susceptibility testing was performed using the microdilution method (EUCAST). All 403 isolates collected were sequenced for high-resolution single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) typing, core genome multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST), and resistome analysis.ResultsIn total, 377 (93.5%) CP-Kpn and 26 (6.5%) CP-Eco isolates were collected from 62 (87.3%) hospitals in 46 (92%) provinces. CP-Kpn was more prevalent in the blood (5.8%, 50/853) than in the urine (1.4%, 201/14,464). The cumulative incidence for both CP-Kpn and CP-Eco was 0.05 per 100 admitted patients. The main carbapenemase genes identified in CP-Kpn were blaOXA–48 (263/377), blaKPC–3 (62/377), blaVIM–1 (28/377), and blaNDM–1 (12/377). All isolates were susceptible to at least two antibiotics. Interregional dissemination of eight high-risk CP-Kpn clones was detected, mainly ST307/OXA-48 (16.4%), ST11/OXA-48 (16.4%), and ST512-ST258/KPC (13.8%). ST512/KPC and ST15/OXA-48 were the most frequent bacteremia-causative clones. The average number of acquired resistance genes was higher in CP-Kpn (7.9) than in CP-Eco (5.5).ConclusionThis study serves as a first step toward WGS integration in the surveillance of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales in Spain. We detected important epidemiological changes, including increased CP-Kpn and CP-Eco prevalence and incidence compared to previous studies, wide interregional dissemination, and increased dissemination of high-risk clones, such as ST307/OXA-48 and ST512/KPC-3

Modelos de decisión con información general

Se plantea un problema de decisión donde el conocimiento sobre los estados de la naturaleza es una evidencia y se intenta resolver en términos de minimización de dos funciones de riesgo. Herramientas no existentes de teoría de la evidencia han de desarrollarse previamente

Medidas de entropía en la teoría de la evidencia

The aim of this paper is to define global measures of uncertainty in the framework of Dempster-Shafer's Theory of Evidence. Starting from the concepts of entropy and specificity introduced by Yager, two measures are considered; the lower entropy and the upper en

Extension of fuzzy measures through the monotone expectation.

The monotone expectation is defined as a functional over fuzzy measures on finite sets. The functional is based on Choquet functional over capacities and its more relevant properties are proved, including the generalization of classical mathematical expectation and Dempster's upper and lower expectations of an evidence. In second place, the monotone expectation is used to define measures of fuzzy sets. Such measures are compared with the ones based on Sugeno integral. Finally, we prove a generalization of the Sugeno bound for probabilities to the whole body of fuzzy measures