Data report for the Siple Coast (Antarctica) project

This report presents data collected during three field seasons of glaciological studies in the Antarctica and describes the methods employed. The region investigated covers the mouths of Ice Streams B and C (the Siple Coast) and Crary Ice Rise on the Ross Ice Shelf. Measurements included in the report are as follows: surface velocity and deformation from repeated satellite geoceiver positions; surface topography from optical levelling; radar sounding of ice thickness; accumulation rates; near-surface densities and temperature profiles; and mapping from aerial photography

Optimal measurement of ice-sheet deformation from surface-marker arrays

Surface strain rate is best observed by fitting a strain-rate ellipsoid to the measured movement of a stake network or other collection of surface features, using a least squares procedure. Error of the resulting fit varies as 1/(L delta t square root of N), where L is the stake separation, delta is the time period between initial and final stake survey, and n is the number of stakes in the network. This relation suggests that if n is sufficiently high, the traditional practice of revisiting stake-network sites on successive field seasons may be replaced by a less costly single year operation. A demonstration using Ross Ice Shelf data shows that reasonably accurate measurements are obtained from 12 stakes after only 4 days of deformation. It is possible for the least squares procedure to aid airborne photogrammetric surveys because reducing the time interval between survey and re-survey permits better surface feature recognition

Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: Part 2. Sensitivity to external forcings

A coupled ice stream-ice shelf-ocean cavity model is used to assess the sensitivity of the coupled system to far-field ocean temperatures, varying from 0.0 to 1.8C, as well as sensitivity to the parameters controlling grounded ice flow. A response to warming is seen in grounding line retreat and grounded ice loss that cannot be inferred from the response of integrated melt rates alone. This is due to concentrated thinning at the ice shelf lateral margin, and to processes that contribute to this thinning. Parameters controlling the flow of grounded ice have a strong influence on the response to sub-ice shelf melting, but this influence is not seen until several years after an initial perturbation in temperatures. The simulated melt rates are on the order of that observed for Pine Island Glacier in the 1990s. However, retreat rates are much slower, possibly due to unrepresented bedrock features

Meltwater produced by wind–albedo interaction stored in an East Antarctic ice shelf

Surface melt and subsequent firn air depletion can ultimately lead to disintegration of Antarctic ice shelves1,2 causing grounded glaciers to accelerate3 and sea level to rise. In the Antarctic Peninsula, foehn winds enhance melting near the grounding line4, which in the recent past has led to the disintegration of the most northerly ice shelves5,6. Here, we provide observational and model evidence that this process also occurs over an East Antarctic ice shelf, where meltwaterinduced firn air depletion is found in the grounding zone. Unlike the Antarctic Peninsula, where foehn events originate from episodic interaction of the circumpolar westerlies with the topography, in coastal East Antarctica high temperatures are caused by persistent katabatic winds originating from the ice sheet’s interior. Katabatic winds warm and mix the air as it flows downward and cause widespread snow erosion, explaining >3 K higher near-surface temperatures in summer and surface melt doubling in the grounding zone compared with its surroundings. Additionally, these winds expose blue ice and firn with lower surface albedo, further enhancing melt. The in situ observation of supraglacial flow and englacial storage of meltwater suggests that ice-shelf grounding zones in East Antarctica, like their Antarctic Peninsula counterparts, are vulnerable to hydrofracturing7

Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model, Part 1: Model description and behavior

Antarctic ice shelves interact closely with the ocean cavities beneath them, with ice shelf geometry influencing ocean cavity circulation, and heat from the ocean driving changes in the ice shelves, as well as the grounded ice streams that feed them. We present a new coupled model of an ice stream-ice shelf-ocean system that is used to study this interaction. The model is capable of representing a moving grounding line and dynamically responding ocean circulation within the ice shelf cavity. Idealized experiments designed to investigate the response of the coupled system to instantaneous increases in ocean temperature show ice-ocean system responses on multiple timescales. Melt rates and ice shelf basal slopes near the grounding line adjust in 12 years, and downstream advection of the resulting ice shelf thinning takes place on decadal timescales. Retreat of the grounding line and adjustment of grounded ice takes place on a much longer timescale, and the system takes several centuries to reach a new steady state. During this slow retreat, and in the absence of either an upward-or downward-sloping bed or long-term trends in ocean heat content, the ice shelf and melt rates maintain a characteristic pattern relative to the grounding line

The impact of glacier geometry on meltwater plume structure and submarine melt in Greenland fjords

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet often drains subglacially into fjords, driving upwelling plumes at glacier termini. Ocean models and observations of submarine termini suggest that plumes enhance melt and undercutting, leading to calving and potential glacier destabilization. Here we systematically evaluate how simulated plume structure and submarine melt during summer months depends on realistic ranges of subglacial discharge, glacier depth, and ocean stratification from 12 Greenland fjords. Our results show that grounding line depth is a strong control on plume-induced submarine melt: deep glaciers produce warm, salty subsurface plumes that undercut termini, and shallow glaciers produce cold, fresh surface-trapped plumes that can overcut termini. Due to sustained upwelling velocities, plumes in cold, shallow fjords can induce equivalent depth-averaged melt rates compared to warm, deep fjords. These results detail a direct ocean-ice feedback that can affect the Greenland Ice Sheet

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change

Laboratory investigations of iceberg capsize dynamics, energy dissipation and tsunamigenesis

We present laboratory experiments designed to quantify the stability and energy budget of buoyancy-driven iceberg capsize.We present laboratory experiments designed to quantify the stability and energy budget of buoyancy-driven iceberg capsize. Box-shaped icebergs were constructed out of low-density plastic, hydrostatically placed in an acrylic water tank containing freshwater of uniform density, and allowed (or forced, if necessary) to capsize. The maximum kinetic energy (translational plus rotational) of the icebergs was 15% of the total energy released during capsize, and radiated surface wave energy was 1% of the total energy released. The remaining energy was directly transferred into the water via hydrodynamic coupling, viscous drag, and turbulence. The dependence of iceberg capsize instability on iceberg aspect ratio implied by the tank experiments was found to closely agree with analytical predictions based on a simple, hydrostatic treatment of iceberg capsize. This analytical treatment, along with the high Reynolds numbers for the experiments (and considerably higher values for capsizing icebergs in nature), indicates that turbulence is an important mechanism of energy dissipation during iceberg capsize and can contribute a potentially important source of mixing in the stratified ocean proximal to marine ice margins.Funding for this project was provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation (ANT0944193, ANT0732869, ANS0806393, and DMR-0807012). D.S.A. was supported by the T. C. Chamberlin Fellowship of the University of Chicago and the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research. We thank the Fultz family for supporting the hydrodynamics laboratory at the University of Chicago. Comments from A. Jenkins, M. Funk, an anonymous reviewer, and editor M. Truffer greatly improved the clarity of this manuscript.Ye

Near-glacier surveying of a subglacial discharge plume: Implications for plume parameterizations

At tidewater glaciers, plume dynamics affect submarine melting, fjord circulation, and the mixing of meltwater. Models often rely on buoyant plume theory to parameterize plumes and submarine melting; however, these parameterizations are largely untested due to a dearth of near‐glacier measurements. Here we present a high‐resolution ocean survey by ship and remotely operated boat near the terminus of Kangerlussuup Sermia in west Greenland. These novel observations reveal the 3‐D structure and transport of a near‐surface plume, originating at a large undercut conduit in the glacier terminus, that is inconsistent with axisymmetric plume theory, the most common representation of plumes in ocean‐glacier models. Instead, the observations suggest a wider upwelling plume—a “truncated” line plume of ∼200 m width—with higher entrainment and plume‐driven melt compared to the typical axisymmetric representation. Our results highlight the importance of a subglacial outlet's geometry in controlling plume dynamics, with implications for parameterizing the exchange flow and submarine melt in glacial fjord models.NNX12AP50