Minimax Optimal Estimation of Stability Under Distribution Shift

The performance of decision policies and prediction models often deteriorates when applied to environments different from the ones seen during training. To ensure reliable operation, we propose and analyze the stability of a system under distribution shift, which is defined as the smallest change in the underlying environment that causes the system's performance to deteriorate beyond a permissible threshold. In contrast to standard tail risk measures and distributionally robust losses that require the specification of a plausible magnitude of distribution shift, the stability measure is defined in terms of a more intuitive quantity: the level of acceptable performance degradation. We develop a minimax optimal estimator of stability and analyze its convergence rate, which exhibits a fundamental phase shift behavior. Our characterization of the minimax convergence rate shows that evaluating stability against large performance degradation incurs a statistical cost. Empirically, we demonstrate the practical utility of our stability framework by using it to compare system designs on problems where robustness to distribution shift is critical

Adaptive approximate Bayesian computation for complex models

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a family of computational techniques in Bayesian statistics. These techniques allow to fi t a model to data without relying on the computation of the model likelihood. They instead require to simulate a large number of times the model to be fi tted. A number of re finements to the original rejection-based ABC scheme have been proposed, including the sequential improvement of posterior distributions. This technique allows to de- crease the number of model simulations required, but it still presents several shortcomings which are particu- larly problematic for costly to simulate complex models. We here provide a new algorithm to perform adaptive approximate Bayesian computation, which is shown to perform better on both a toy example and a complex social model.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure

Application of long-period-grating sensors to respiratory plethysmography

A series of in-line curvature sensors on a garment are used to monitor the thoracic and abdominal movements of a human during respiration. These results are used to obtain volumetric tidal changes of the human torso in agreement with a spirometer used simultaneously at the mouth. The curvature sensors are based on long-period gratings (LPGs) written in a progressive three-layered fiber to render the LPGs insensitive to the refractive index external to the fiber. A curvature sensor consists of the fiber long-period grating laid on a carbon fiber ribbon, which is then encapsulated in a low-temperature curing silicone rubber. The sensors have a spectral sensitivity to curvature, dλ/dR from ∼7-nm m to ∼9-nm m. The interrogation technique is borrowed from derivative spectroscopy and monitors the changes in the transmission spectral profile of the LPG's attenuation band due to curvature. The multiplexing of the sensors is achieved by spectrally matching a series of distributed feedback (DFB) lasers to the LPGs. The versatility of this sensing garment is confirmed by it being used on six other human subjects covering a wide range of body mass indices. Just six fully functional sensors are required to obtain a volumetric error of around 6%. © 2007 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers

An Update on the Leading COVID-19 Vaccines

We reviewed the COVID-19 vaccines that reached phase III of clinical development. For each of the 10 vaccines identified, we described the technology used for vaccine development, the available data from phase III clinical trials, data on vaccine safety, and the role of new SARS-CoV-2 variants on vaccine efficacy

The Impact of HIV, an Antiretroviral Programme and Tuberculosis on Mortality in South African Platinum Miners, 1992–2010

HIV and tuberculosis (TB) are the most common causes of death in South Africa. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes should have had an impact on mortality rates. This study describes the impact of HIV, a Wellness (HIV/ART) programme and TB on population-wide trends in mortality and causes of death among South African platinum miners, from before the HIV epidemic into the ART era

Motivational component profiles in university students learning histology: a comparative study between genders and different health science curricula

Background: The students' motivation to learn basic sciences in health science curricula is poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of different components of motivation (intrinsic motivation, self-determination, self-efficacy and extrinsic -career and grade-motivation) on learning human histology in health science curricula and their relationship with the final performance of the students in histology. Methods: Glynn Science Motivation Questionnaire II was used to compare students' motivation components to learn histology in 367 first-year male and female undergraduate students enrolled in medical, dentistry and pharmacy degree programs. Results: For intrinsic motivation, career motivation and self-efficacy, the highest values corresponded to medical students, whereas dentistry students showed the highest values for self-determination and grade motivation. Genders differences were found for career motivation in medicine, self-efficacy in dentistry, and intrinsic motivation, self-determination and grade motivation in pharmacy. Career motivation and self-efficacy components correlated with final performance in histology of the students corresponding to the three curricula. Conclusions: Our results show that the overall motivational profile for learning histology differs among medical, dentistry and pharmacy students. This finding is potentially useful to foster their learning process, because if they are metacognitively aware of their motivation they will be better equipped to self-regulate their science-learning behavior in histology. This information could be useful for instructors and education policy makers to enhance curricula not only on the cognitive component of learning but also to integrate students' levels and types of motivation into the processes of planning, delivery and evaluation of medical education.This research was supported by the Unidad de Innovación Docente, University of Granada, Spain through grants UGR11-294 and UGR11-303

Gene expression model (in)validation by Fourier analysis

The determination of the right model structure describing a gene regulation network and the identification of its parameters are major goals in systems biology. The task is often hampered by the lack of relevant experimental data with sufficiently low noise level, but the subset of genes whose concentration levels exhibit an oscillatory behavior in time can readily be analyzed on the basis of their Fourier spectrum, known to turn complex signals into few relatively noise-free parameters. Such genes therefore offer opportunities of understanding gene regulation quantitatively.Journal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tValidation StudiesSCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Impact Factor: outdated artefact or stepping-stone to journal certification?

A review of Garfield's journal impact factor and its specific implementation as the Thomson Reuters Impact Factor reveals several weaknesses in this commonly-used indicator of journal standing. Key limitations include the mismatch between citing and cited documents, the deceptive display of three decimals that belies the real precision, and the absence of confidence intervals. These are minor issues that are easily amended and should be corrected, but more substantive improvements are needed. There are indications that the scientific community seeks and needs better certification of journal procedures to improve the quality of published science. Comprehensive certification of editorial and review procedures could help ensure adequate procedures to detect duplicate and fraudulent submissions.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, 6 table

Blood donor behaviour, motivations and the need for a systematic cross-cultural perspective: the example of moral outrage and health and non-health based philanthropy across seven countries

Background: Blood donation is a prosocial altruistic act that is motived by the mechanisms that underlie altruism (e.g., warm-glow, reciprocity, fairness/trust). Because there is consistent evidence that altruism and its mechanisms show cross-cultural variability, in the present paper we make the case for a cross-cultural perspective in blood donor research. Methods: We analyse a subset of variables from a larger study, with samples drawn from seven countries (England, Malta, the Netherlands, Australia, USA, Hungary, Italy: average N per country = 282). This subset of variables focuses on health (organ donor registration) and non-health (volunteering, donating money) philanthropy, family traditions of helping, and moral outrage as predictors of blood donor status. Results: We show two cross-cultural universals: 1) organ donor registration in opt-in countries is positively associated with blood donor status and 2) non-health philanthropy is generally unrelated to blood donor status. We also show two country specific effects: 1) a family tradition for helping is associated with blood donor status in Italy only and 2) moral outrage is a predictor only in the USA. Conclusions: We contend that these findings provide proof of principle why a cross-cultural perspective on blood donor behaviour is needed