Predicting progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia using neuropsychological data: a supervised learning approach using time windows

Background: Predicting progression from a stage of Mild Cognitive Impairment to dementia is a major pursuit in current research. It is broadly accepted that cognition declines with a continuum between MCI and dementia. As such, cohorts of MCI patients are usually heterogeneous, containing patients at different stages of the neurodegenerative process. This hampers the prognostic task. Nevertheless, when learning prognostic models, most studies use the entire cohort of MCI patients regardless of their disease stages. In this paper, we propose a Time Windows approach to predict conversion to dementia, learning with patients stratified using time windows, thus fine-tuning the prognosis regarding the time to conversion. Methods: In the proposed Time Windows approach, we grouped patients based on the clinical information of whether they converted (converter MCI) or remained MCI (stable MCI) within a specific time window. We tested time windows of 2, 3, 4 and 5 years. We developed a prognostic model for each time window using clinical and neuropsychological data and compared this approach with the commonly used in the literature, where all patients are used to learn the models, named as First Last approach. This enables to move from the traditional question "Will a MCI patient convert to dementia somewhere in the future" to the question "Will a MCI patient convert to dementia in a specific time window". Results: The proposed Time Windows approach outperformed the First Last approach. The results showed that we can predict conversion to dementia as early as 5 years before the event with an AUC of 0.88 in the cross-validation set and 0.76 in an independent validation set. Conclusions: Prognostic models using time windows have higher performance when predicting progression from MCI to dementia, when compared to the prognostic approach commonly used in the literature. Furthermore, the proposed Time Windows approach is more relevant from a clinical point of view, predicting conversion within a temporal interval rather than sometime in the future and allowing clinicians to timely adjust treatments and clinical appointments.FCT under the Neuroclinomics2 project [PTDC/EEI-SII/1937/2014, SFRH/BD/95846/2013]; INESC-ID plurianual [UID/CEC/50021/2013]; LASIGE Research Unit [UID/CEC/00408/2013

Optical effects of exposing intact human lenses to ultraviolet radiation and visible light

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The human lens is continuously exposed to high levels of light. Ultraviolet radiation is believed to play a causative role in the development of cataract. In vivo, however, the lens is mainly exposed to visible light and the ageing lens absorbs a great part of the short wavelength region of incoming visible light. The aim of the present study was to examine the optical effects on human lenses of short wavelength visible light and ultraviolet radiation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Naturally aged human donor lenses were irradiated with UVA (355 nm), violet (400 and 405 nm) and green (532 nm) lasers. The effect of irradiation was evaluated qualitatively by photography and quantitatively by measuring the direct transmission before and after irradiation. Furthermore, the effect of pulsed and continuous laser systems was compared as was the effect of short, intermediate and prolonged exposures.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Irradiation with high intensity lasers caused scattering lesions in the human lenses. These effects were more likely to be seen when using pulsed lasers because of the high pulse intensity. Prolonged irradiation with UVA led to photodarkening whereas no detrimental effects were observed after irradiation with visible light.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Irradiation with visible light does not seem to be harmful to the human lens except if the lens is exposed to laser irradiances that are high enough to warrant thermal protein denaturation that is more readily seen using pulsed laser systems.</p

MiR-133a in Human Circulating Monocytes: A Potential Biomarker Associated with Postmenopausal Osteoporosis

Background: Osteoporosis mainly occurs in postmenopausal women, which is characterized by low bone mineral density (BMD) due to unbalanced bone resorption by osteoclasts and formation by osteoblasts. Circulating monocytes play important roles in osteoclastogenesis by acting as osteoclast precursors and secreting osteoclastogenic factors, such as IL-1, IL-6 and TNF-a. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) have been implicated as important biomarkers in various diseases. The present study aimed to find significant miRNA biomarkers in human circulating monocytes underlying postmenopausal osteoporosis. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used ABI TaqManH miRNA array followed by qRT-PCR validation in circulating monocytes to identify miRNA biomarkers in 10 high and 10 low BMD postmenopausal Caucasian women. MiR-133a was upregulated (P = 0.007) in the low compared with the high BMD groups in the array analyses, which was also validated by qRT-PCR (P = 0.044). We performed bioinformatic target gene analysis and found three potential osteoclast-related target genes, CXCL11, CXCR3 and SLC39A1. In addition, we performed Pearson correlation analyses between the expression levels of miR-133a and the three potential target genes in the 20 postmenopausal women. We did find negative correlations between miR-133a and all the three genes though not significant. Conclusions/Significance: This is the first in vivo miRNA expression analysis in human circulating monocytes to identif

A predictive model for the early identification of patients at risk for a prolonged intensive care unit length of stay

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Patients with a prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay account for a disproportionate amount of resource use. Early identification of patients at risk for a prolonged length of stay can lead to quality enhancements that reduce ICU stay. This study developed and validated a model that identifies patients at risk for a prolonged ICU stay.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a retrospective cohort study of 343,555 admissions to 83 ICUs in 31 U.S. hospitals from 2002-2007. We examined the distribution of ICU length of stay to identify a threshold where clinicians might be concerned about a prolonged stay; this resulted in choosing a 5-day cut-point. From patients remaining in the ICU on day 5 we developed a multivariable regression model that predicted remaining ICU stay. Predictor variables included information gathered at admission, day 1, and ICU day 5. Data from 12,640 admissions during 2002-2005 were used to develop the model, and the remaining 12,904 admissions to internally validate the model. Finally, we used data on 11,903 admissions during 2006-2007 to externally validate the model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The variables that had the greatest impact on remaining ICU length of stay were those measured on day 5, not at admission or during day 1. Mechanical ventilation, PaO₂: FiO₂ratio, other physiologic components, and sedation on day 5 accounted for 81.6% of the variation in predicted remaining ICU stay. In the external validation set observed ICU stay was 11.99 days and predicted total ICU stay (5 days + day 5 predicted remaining stay) was 11.62 days, a difference of 8.7 hours. For the same patients, the difference between mean observed and mean predicted ICU stay using the APACHE day 1 model was 149.3 hours. The new model's r²was 20.2% across individuals and 44.3% across units.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A model that uses patient data from ICU days 1 and 5 accurately predicts a prolonged ICU stay. These predictions are more accurate than those based on ICU day 1 data alone. The model can be used to benchmark ICU performance and to alert physicians to explore care alternatives aimed at reducing ICU stay.</p

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

A Measure of Perceived Performance to Assess Resource Allocation

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00500-015-1696-3Performance measurement is a key issue when a company is designing new strategies to improve resource allocation. This paper offers a new methodology inspired by classic importance-performance analysis (IPA) that provides a global index of importance versus performance for firms. This index compares two rankings of the same set of features regarding importance and performance, taking into account underperforming features. The marginal contribution of each feature to the proposed global index defines a set of iso-curves that represents an improvement in the IPA diagram. The defined index, together with the new version of the diagram, will enable the assessment of a firm's overall performance and, therefore, enhance decision making in the allocation of resources. The proposed methodology has been applied to a Taiwanese multi-format retailer and managerial perceptions of performance and importance are compared to assess the firm's overall performance.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft