Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Genetic diversity in South American Colletotrichum gloeosporioides isolates from Stylosanthes guianensis, a tropical forage legume

The degree of genetic diversity of 127 Colletotrichum gloeosporioides isolates from Stylosanthes guianensis genotypes in South America was measured at the molecular level by random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) with nine arbitrary primers of 10 bases, and by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) with a non-LTR (long terminal repeats) retrotransposon DNA sequence. The RAPD products revealed scorable polymorphism among the isolates, and a total of 80 band positions were scored. Sixty-three of the 127 isolates were clustered into 13 distinct lineages usually correlating with geographic origin. Where isolates from various regions were clustered together, most had identical host genotype origin. The pathogen population sampled from Carimagua, Colombia, a long-time Stylosanthes breeding and selection site, with a savanna ecosystem, was highly diverse. A set of 12 S. guianensis genotype differentials was used to characterize pathogenic variability of 104 isolates and their virulence patterns were grouped into 57 pathotypes. However, when they were tested on four Australian differentials, they grouped into 11 pathotypes. As shown in previous studies, no strict correlations existed between genetic diversity measured by RAPD or RFLP, and pathotype defined by pathogenicity pattern on the differentials. Southern blot analysis of the 127 isolates revealed 23 hybridizing fragments, resulting in 41 fingerprint patterns among the 127 isolates. Relationships between RFLP and RAPD variables were examined using Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient, which showed that the two measures of genotypic variation are in agreement

Survival and growth of Pseudoplatystoma corruscans (Pisces - Pimelodidae) larvae: effect of photoperiod Sobrevivência e crescimento de larvas de surubim, Pseudoplatystoma corruscans (Pisces, Pimelodidae): efeito do fotoperíodo

The survival and the growth of Pseudoplatystoma corruscans larvae exposed to four photoperiods: light:dark (LD) 0:24, LD 10:14, LD 14:10, and LD 24:0, in a brackish water (5&#8240;) culture were analyzed. Larvae were fed with Artemia sp. nauplii at a 500 nauplii/larvae/day ratio. Survival on day 5 was inversely related to the length of photoperiod. From days 5 to 10, intermediate photoperiods resulted in a better survival, although LD 0:24 and LD 14:10 resulted in similar survival on day 10. Larvae presented higher weight at intermediate photoperiods. The results suggested that photoperiod requirements shifted during early development of P. corruscans larvae.<br>A sobrevivência e o crescimento de larvas de surubim, Pseudoplatystoma corruscans, submetidas a quatro fotoperíodos: luz:escuro (LE) 0:24, LE 10:14, LE 14:10 e LE 24:0 em água salinizada (5&#8240;) foram avaliadas. As larvas foram alimentadas com náuplios de Artemia sp. na proporção de 500 náuplios/larva/dia. Após cinco dias de experimento, a sobrevivência apresentou relação inversa ao aumento do fotoperíodo. Entre o quinto e o 10º dia, houve tendência de maior sobrevivência nos fotoperíodos intermediários, mas foram registradas sobrevivências semelhantes no intervalo entre LE 0:24 e LE 14:10 no 10º dia. As larvas apresentaram maior peso nos fotoperíodos intermediários. Os resultados sugerem que a exigência de fotoperíodo das larvas de P. corruscans sofre mudanças durante o cultivo

Prediction of molecular alignment of nucleic acids in aligned media

Contains fulltext : 35529.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)We demonstrate - using the data base of all deposited DNA and RNA structures aligned in Pf1-medium and RDC refined - that for nucleic acids in a Pf1-medium the electrostatic alignment tensor can be predicted reliably and accurately via a simple and fast calculation based on the gyration tensor spanned out by the phosphodiester atoms. The rhombicity is well predicted over its full range from 0 to 0.66, while the alignment tensor orientation is predicted correctly for rhombicities up to ca. 0.4, for larger rhombicities it appears to deviate somewhat more than expected based on structural noise and measurement error. This simple analytical approach is based on the Debye-Huckel approximation for the electrostatic interaction potential, valid at distances sufficiently far away from a poly-ionic charged surface, a condition naturally enforced when the charge of alignment medium and solute are of equal sign, as for nucleic acids in a Pf1-phage medium. For the usual salt strengths and nucleic acid sizes, the Debye-Huckel screening length is smaller than the nucleic acid size, but large enough for the collective of Debye-Huckel spheres to encompass the whole molecule. The molecular alignment is then purely electrostatic, but it's functional form is under these conditions similar to that for steric alignment. The proposed analytical expression allows for very fast calculation of the alignment tensor and hence RDCs from the conformation of the nucleic acid molecule. This information provides opportunities for improved structure determination of nucleic acids, including better assessment of dynamics in (multi-domain) nucleic acids and the possibility to incorporate alignment tensor prediction from shape directly into the structure calculation process. The procedures are incorporated into MATLAB scripts, which are available on request

Mechanical ventilation in patients with cardiogenic pulmonary edema : a sub-analysis of the LUNG SAFE study

Patients with acute respiratory failure caused by cardiogenic pulmonary edema (CPE) may require mechanical ventilation that can cause further lung damage. Our aim was to determine the impact of ventilatory settings on CPE mortality. Patients from the LUNG SAFE cohort, a multicenter prospective cohort study of patients undergoing mechanical ventilation, were studied. Relationships between ventilatory parameters and outcomes (ICU discharge/hospital mortality) were assessed using latent mixture analysis and a marginal structural model. From 4499 patients, 391 meeting CPE criteria (median age 70 [interquartile range 59-78], 40% female) were included. ICU and hospital mortality were 34% and 40%, respectively. ICU survivors were younger (67 [57-77] vs 74 [64-80] years, p < 0.001) and had lower driving (12 [8-16] vs 15 [11-17] cmHO, p < 0.001), plateau (20 [15-23] vs 22 [19-26] cmHO, p < 0.001) and peak (21 [17-27] vs 26 [20-32] cmHO, p < 0.001) pressures. Latent mixture analysis of patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation on ICU day 1 revealed a subgroup ventilated with high pressures with lower probability of being discharged alive from the ICU (hazard ratio [HR] 0.79 [95% confidence interval 0.60-1.05], p = 0.103) and increased hospital mortality (HR 1.65 [1.16-2.36], p = 0.005). In a marginal structural model, driving pressures in the first week (HR 1.12 [1.06-1.18], p < 0.001) and tidal volume after day 7 (HR 0.69 [0.52-0.93], p = 0.015) were related to survival. Higher airway pressures in invasively ventilated patients with CPE are related to mortality. These patients may be exposed to an increased risk of ventilator-induced lung injury. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02010073

Resolved versus confirmed ARDS after 24&#160;h: insights from the LUNG SAFE study

Purpose: To evaluate patients with resolved versus confirmed ARDS, identify subgroups with substantial mortality risk, and to determine the utility of day 2 ARDS reclassification. Methods: Our primary objective, in this secondary LUNG SAFE analysis, was to compare outcome in patients with resolved versus confirmed ARDS after 24\ua0h. Secondary objectives included identifying factors associated with ARDS persistence and mortality, and the utility of day 2 ARDS reclassification. Results: Of 2377 patients fulfilling the ARDS definition on the first day of ARDS (day 1) and receiving invasive mechanical ventilation, 503 (24%) no longer fulfilled the ARDS definition the next day, 52% of whom initially had moderate or severe ARDS. Higher tidal volume on day 1 of ARDS was associated with confirmed ARDS [OR 1.07 (CI 1.01\u20131.13), P = 0.035]. Hospital mortality was 38% overall, ranging from 31% in resolved ARDS to 41% in confirmed ARDS, and 57% in confirmed severe ARDS at day 2. In both\ua0resolved and confirmed\ua0ARDS, age, non-respiratory SOFA score, lower PEEP and P/F ratio, higher peak pressure and respiratory rate were each\ua0associated with mortality. In confirmed ARDS, pH and the presence of immunosuppression or neoplasm were also associated\ua0with mortality. The increase in area under the receiver operating curve for ARDS reclassification on day 2 was marginal. Conclusions: ARDS, whether resolved or confirmed at day 2, has a high mortality rate. ARDS reclassification at day 2 has limited predictive value for mortality. The substantial mortality risk in severe confirmed ARDS suggests that complex interventions might best be tested in this population. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02010073. \ua9 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature and ESICM

Death in hospital following ICU discharge : insights from the LUNG SAFE study

Altres ajuts: Italian Ministry of University and Research (MIUR)-Department of Excellence project PREMIA (PREcision MedIcine Approach: bringing biomarker research to clinic); Science Foundation Ireland Future Research Leaders Award; European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM), Brussels; St Michael's Hospital, Toronto; University of Milan-Bicocca, Monza, Italy.Background: To determine the frequency of, and factors associated with, death in hospital following ICU discharge to the ward. Methods: The Large observational study to UNderstand the Global impact of Severe Acute respiratory FailurE study was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study of patients with severe respiratory failure, conducted across 459 ICUs from 50 countries globally. This study aimed to understand the frequency and factors associated with death in hospital in patients who survived their ICU stay. We examined outcomes in the subpopulation discharged with no limitations of life sustaining treatments ('treatment limitations'), and the subpopulations with treatment limitations. Results: 2186 (94%) patients with no treatment limitations discharged from ICU survived, while 142 (6%) died in hospital. 118 (61%) of patients with treatment limitations survived while 77 (39%) patients died in hospital. Patients without treatment limitations that died in hospital after ICU discharge were older, more likely to have COPD, immunocompromise or chronic renal failure, less likely to have trauma as a risk factor for ARDS. Patients that died post ICU discharge were less likely to receive neuromuscular blockade, or to receive any adjunctive measure, and had a higher pre- ICU discharge non-pulmonary SOFA score. A similar pattern was seen in patients with treatment limitations that died in hospital following ICU discharge. Conclusions: A significant proportion of patients die in hospital following discharge from ICU, with higher mortality in patients with limitations of life-sustaining treatments in place. Non-survivors had higher systemic illness severity scores at ICU discharge than survivors. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02010073

Multi-messenger Observations of a Binary Neutron Star Merger

International audienceOn 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of $\sim 1.7\,{\rm{s}}$ with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg(2) at a luminosity distance of ${40}_{-8}^{+8}$ Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 $\,{M}_{\odot }$. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at $\sim 40\,{\rm{Mpc}}$) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One-Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ∼10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position $\sim 9$ and $\sim 16$ days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC 4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta