Introduction to metamodeling for reducing computational burden of advanced analyses with health economic models : a structured overview of metamodeling methods in a 6-step application process

Metamodels can be used to reduce the computational burden associated with computationally demanding analyses of simulation models, though applications within health economics are still scarce. Besides a lack of awareness of their potential within health economics, the absence of guidance on the conceivably complex and time-consuming process of developing and validating metamodels may contribute to their limited uptake. To address these issues, this paper introduces metamodeling to the wider health economic audience and presents a process for applying metamodeling in this context, including suitable methods and directions for their selection and use. General (i.e., non-health economic specific) metamodeling literature, clinical prediction modeling literature, and a previously published literature review were exploited to consolidate a process and to identify candidate metamodeling methods. Methods were considered applicable to health economics if they are able to account for mixed (i.e., continuous and discrete) input parameters and continuous outcomes. Six steps were identified as relevant for applying metamodeling methods within health economics, i.e. 1) the identification of a suitable metamodeling technique, 2) simulation of datasets according to a design of experiments, 3) fitting of the metamodel, 4) assessment of metamodel performance, 5) conduct the required analysis using the metamodel, and 6) verification of the results. Different methods are discussed to support each step, including their characteristics, directions for use, key references, and relevant R and Python packages. To address challenges regarding metamodeling methods selection, a first guide was developed towards using metamodels to reduce the computational burden of analyses of health economic models. This guidance may increase applications of metamodeling in health economics, enabling increased use of state-of-the-art analyses, e.g. value of information analysis, with computationally burdensome simulation models

CRT: A numerical tool for propagating ultra-high energy cosmic rays through Galactic magnetic field models

Deflection of ultra high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) by the Galactic magnetic field (GMF) may be sufficiently strong to hinder identification of the UHECR source distribution. A common method for determining the effect of GMF models on source identification efforts is backtracking cosmic rays. We present the public numerical tool CRT for propagating charged particles through Galactic magnetic field models by numerically integrating the relativistic equation of motion. It is capable of both forward- and back-tracking particles with varying compositions through pre-defined and custom user-created magnetic fields. These particles are injected from various types of sources specified and distributed according to the user. Here, we present a description of some source and magnetic field model implementations, as well as validation of the integration routines.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figure

Diffuse inverse Compton and synchrotron emission from dark matter annihilations in galactic satellites

Annihilating dark matter particles produce roughly as much power in electrons and positrons as in gamma ray photons. The charged particles lose essentially all of their energy to inverse Compton and synchrotron processes in the galactic environment. We discuss the diffuse signature of dark matter annihilations in satellites of the Milky Way (which may be optically dark with few or no stars), providing a tail of emission trailing the satellite in its orbit. Inverse Compton processes provide X-rays and gamma rays, and synchrotron emission at radio wavelengths might be seen. We discuss the possibility of detecting these signals with current and future observations, in particular EGRET and GLAST for the gamma rays.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figure

Dynamics of Coronal Bright Points as seen by Sun Watcher using Active Pixel System detector and Image Processing (SWAP), Atmospheric Imaging Assembly AIA), and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI)

The \textit{Sun Watcher using Active Pixel system detector and Image Processing}(SWAP) on board the \textit{PRoject for OnBoard Autonomy\todash 2} (PROBA\todash 2) spacecraft provides images of the solar corona in EUV channel centered at 174 \AA. These data, together with \textit{Atmospheric Imaging Assembly} (AIA) and the \textit{Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager} (HMI) on board \textit{Solar Dynamics Observatory} (SDO), are used to study the dynamics of coronal bright points. The evolution of the magnetic polarities and associated changes in morphology are studied using magnetograms and multi-wavelength imaging. The morphology of the bright points seen in low-resolution SWAP images and high-resolution AIA images show different structures, whereas the intensity variations with time show similar trends in both SWAP 174 and AIA 171 channels. We observe that bright points are seen in EUV channels corresponding to a magnetic-flux of the order of $10^{18}$ Mx. We find that there exists a good correlation between total emission from the bright point in several UV\todash EUV channels and total unsigned photospheric magnetic flux above certain thresholds. The bright points also show periodic brightenings and we have attempted to find the oscillation periods in bright points and their connection to magnetic flux changes. The observed periods are generally long (10\todash 25 minutes) and there is an indication that the intensity oscillations may be generated by repeated magnetic reconnection

An analysis of uncertainties and data collection agreements in the cancer drugs fund

Background: Managed Access Agreements (MAAs) are a commercial arrangement that provide patients earlier access to innovative health technologies while uncertainties in the evidence base are resolved through data collection. In the UK, data collection agreements (DCAs) outline the evidence that will be collected during the MAA period and are intended to resolve uncertainties in the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of a technology sufficient for the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) committee to make a final decision on reimbursement. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify the primary uncertainties leading to a recommendation for entry to the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) and evaluate how the corresponding DCAs attempt to address these. Methods: A database of MAAs agreed within the CDF was compiled with coverage between July 2016 and December 2020 (the time during which evidence generation was routinely collected within the CDF up until the time of analysis). Uncertainties in the evidence base for technologies entering the CDF were analysed alongside the outcomes planned for data collection during the MAA. These data provide an overview of the key uncertainties surrounding health technologies in the CDF on entry and the types of evidence targeted by DCAs. Results: In the assessment of 39 Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) cases, NICE committees identified a total of 108 key uncertainties in cost-effectiveness estimates. Overall survival was the most commonly identified uncertainty, followed by generalisability of the evidence to the target population. DCAs specified a range of outcomes relevant to understanding the clinical effectiveness of the technology, though fewer than half (43.6%) of the DCAs addressed all the key uncertainties identified by the NICE committee. Conclusion: The analysis indicated that data collection within the CDF is not sufficient to resolve all the uncertainties identified by the NICE committee, meaning that other approaches will be needed at re-appraisal to ensure that the NICE committee can reach a final decision on reimbursement

Magnetic Fields in the Milky Way

This chapter presents a review of observational studies to determine the magnetic field in the Milky Way, both in the disk and in the halo, focused on recent developments and on magnetic fields in the diffuse interstellar medium. I discuss some terminology which is confusingly or inconsistently used and try to summarize current status of our knowledge on magnetic field configurations and strengths in the Milky Way. Although many open questions still exist, more and more conclusions can be drawn on the large-scale and small-scale components of the Galactic magnetic field. The chapter is concluded with a brief outlook to observational projects in the near future.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures, to appear in "Magnetic Fields in Diffuse Media", eds. E.M. de Gouveia Dal Pino and A. Lazaria

Spike timing-dependent plasticity induces non-trivial topology in the brain.

We study the capacity of Hodgkin-Huxley neuron in a network to change temporarily or permanently their connections and behavior, the so called spike timing-dependent plasticity (STDP), as a function of their synchronous behavior. We consider STDP of excitatory and inhibitory synapses driven by Hebbian rules. We show that the final state of networks evolved by a STDP depend on the initial network configuration. Specifically, an initial all-to-all topology evolves to a complex topology. Moreover, external perturbations can induce co-existence of clusters, those whose neurons are synchronous and those whose neurons are desynchronous. This work reveals that STDP based on Hebbian rules leads to a change in the direction of the synapses between high and low frequency neurons, and therefore, Hebbian learning can be explained in terms of preferential attachment between these two diverse communities of neurons, those with low-frequency spiking neurons, and those with higher-frequency spiking neurons

Origins of the Ambient Solar Wind: Implications for Space Weather

The Sun's outer atmosphere is heated to temperatures of millions of degrees, and solar plasma flows out into interplanetary space at supersonic speeds. This paper reviews our current understanding of these interrelated problems: coronal heating and the acceleration of the ambient solar wind. We also discuss where the community stands in its ability to forecast how variations in the solar wind (i.e., fast and slow wind streams) impact the Earth. Although the last few decades have seen significant progress in observations and modeling, we still do not have a complete understanding of the relevant physical processes, nor do we have a quantitatively precise census of which coronal structures contribute to specific types of solar wind. Fast streams are known to be connected to the central regions of large coronal holes. Slow streams, however, appear to come from a wide range of sources, including streamers, pseudostreamers, coronal loops, active regions, and coronal hole boundaries. Complicating our understanding even more is the fact that processes such as turbulence, stream-stream interactions, and Coulomb collisions can make it difficult to unambiguously map a parcel measured at 1 AU back down to its coronal source. We also review recent progress -- in theoretical modeling, observational data analysis, and forecasting techniques that sit at the interface between data and theory -- that gives us hope that the above problems are indeed solvable.Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews. Special issue connected with a 2016 ISSI workshop on "The Scientific Foundations of Space Weather." 44 pages, 9 figure

Microflares and the Statistics of X-ray Flares

This review surveys the statistics of solar X-ray flares, emphasising the new views that RHESSI has given us of the weaker events (the microflares). The new data reveal that these microflares strongly resemble more energetic events in most respects; they occur solely within active regions and exhibit high-temperature/nonthermal emissions in approximately the same proportion as major events. We discuss the distributions of flare parameters (e.g., peak flux) and how these parameters correlate, for instance via the Neupert effect. We also highlight the systematic biases involved in intercomparing data representing many decades of event magnitude. The intermittency of the flare/microflare occurrence, both in space and in time, argues that these discrete events do not explain general coronal heating, either in active regions or in the quiet Sun.Comment: To be published in Space Science Reviews (2011

Search for supersymmetry with a dominant R-parity violating LQDbar couplings in e+e- collisions at centre-of-mass energies of 130GeV to 172 GeV

A search for pair-production of supersymmetric particles under the assumption that R-parity is violated via a dominant LQDbar coupling has been performed using the data collected by ALEPH at centre-of-mass energies of 130-172 GeV. The observed candidate events in the data are in agreement with the Standard Model expectation. This result is translated into lower limits on the masses of charginos, neutralinos, sleptons, sneutrinos and squarks. For instance, for m_0=500 GeV/c^2 and tan(beta)=sqrt(2) charginos with masses smaller than 81 GeV/c^2 and neutralinos with masses smaller than 29 GeV/c^2 are excluded at the 95% confidence level for any generation structure of the LQDbar coupling.Comment: 32 pages, 30 figure