Predictability in an unpredictable artificial cultural market

In social, economic and cultural situations in which the decisions of individuals are influenced directly by the decisions of others, there appears to be an inherently high level of ex ante unpredictability. In cultural markets such as films, songs and books, well-informed experts routinely make predictions which turn out to be incorrect. We examine the extent to which the existence of social influence may, somewhat paradoxically, increase the extent to which winners can be identified at a very early stage in the process. Once the process of choice has begun, only a very small number of decisions may be necessary to give a reasonable prospect of being able to identify the eventual winner. We illustrate this by an analysis of the music download experiments of Salganik et.al. (2006). We derive a rule for early identification of the eventual winner. Although not perfect, it gives considerable practical success. We validate the rule by applying it to similar data not used in the process of constructing the rule

Critical Loop Gases and the Worm Algorithm

The loop gas approach to lattice field theory provides an alternative, geometrical description in terms of fluctuating loops. Statistical ensembles of random loops can be efficiently generated by Monte Carlo simulations using the worm update algorithm. In this paper, concepts from percolation theory and the theory of self-avoiding random walks are used to describe estimators of physical observables that utilize the nature of the worm algorithm. The fractal structure of the random loops as well as their scaling properties are studied. To support this approach, the O(1) loop model, or high-temperature series expansion of the Ising model, is simulated on a honeycomb lattice, with its known exact results providing valuable benchmarks.Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures; v2: 2 figures and 1 table added; v3: typo's correcte

Geometrical vs. Fortuin-Kasteleyn Clusters in the Two-Dimensional qq-State Potts Model

The tricritical behavior of the two-dimensional $q$-state Potts model with vacancies for $1\leq q \leq4$ is argued to be encoded in the fractal structure of the geometrical spin clusters of the pure model. The close connection between the critical properties of the pure model and the tricritical properties of the diluted model is shown to be reflected in an intimate relation between Fortuin-Kasteleyn and geometrical clusters: The same transformation mapping the two critical regimes onto each other also maps the two cluster types onto each other. The map conserves the central charge, so that both cluster types are in the same universality class. The geometrical picture is supported by a Monte Carlo simulation of the high-temperature representation of the Ising model ($q=2$). In this new numerical approach, closed graph configurations are generated by means of a Metropolis update algorithm, involving single plaquettes.Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures, 2nd version: references added, introduction partly rewritten, error estimates improve

Impacts of changes in alcohol consumption patterns during the first 2020 COVID-19 restrictions for people with and without mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions: A cross sectional study in 13 countries

Background: The initial period of COVID-19-related restrictions affected substance use in some population groups. We explored how changes in alcohol use at the beginning of the pandemic impacted the health and wellbeing of people with and without mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions (MHDCs). Methods: Data came from the Global Drug Survey Special Edition on COVID-19 conducted in May-June 2020. Measured were; changes in drinking compared to February 2020 (pre-COVID-19 restrictions), reasons for changes, and impact on physical health, mental health, relationships, finances, work/study, and enjoyment. This study included 38,141 respondents (median age = 32 IQR 25-45; 51.9% cis man; 47.8% cis woman; 1.2% trans/nonbinary; 30.2% with MHDCs e.g. depression 20.0%, anxiety 16.3%, ADHD 3.8%, PTSD 3.3%). Results: A third (35.3%) of respondents with MHDCs and 17.8% without MHDCs indicated that increased drinking affected their mental health negatively (p < .001); 44.2% of respondents with MHDCS compared to 32.6% without MHDCs said it affected their physical health negatively (p < .001). Reduced drinking was associated with better mental health among a fifth (21.1%) of respondents with MHDCS and 14.4% without MHDCs (p < .001). Age, relationship status, living arrangements, employment, coping and distress were significant predictors of increases in drinking. Conclusion: Among people with MHDCS, reduced alcohol consumption was associated with better mental health, while the negative effects of increased drinking were more pronounced when compared to people without MHDCS. When supporting people in reducing alcohol consumption during uncertain times, people with MHDCS may need additional support, alongside those experiencing greater levels of distress

Prediction of pH Change in Processed Acidified Turnips

The acetic acid uptake by turnips was studied during an acidification process in containers. The process was successfully described by a Fickian diffusion, using a correlation for the buffer effect. Diffusion coefficients (0.629 to 3.99 × 10-9 m2/sec) and partition coefficients (0.8 to 1.1) were obtained by optimization of the fit between experimental and theoretical values, using the simplex method. The partition coefficient did not show an evident dependence on temperature, while diffusivity followed an Arrhenius type behavior. The relationship between acid concentration and pH was described using a cubic model with parameters independent of temperature. Results showed that the combination of these models describing the acid diffusion into the food and the buffering effects of the food allowed accurate prediction of pH evolution in the acidification process

Spanning forests and the q-state Potts model in the limit q \to 0

We study the q-state Potts model with nearest-neighbor coupling v=e^{\beta J}-1 in the limit q,v \to 0 with the ratio w = v/q held fixed. Combinatorially, this limit gives rise to the generating polynomial of spanning forests; physically, it provides information about the Potts-model phase diagram in the neighborhood of (q,v) = (0,0). We have studied this model on the square and triangular lattices, using a transfer-matrix approach at both real and complex values of w. For both lattices, we have computed the symbolic transfer matrices for cylindrical strips of widths 2 \le L \le 10, as well as the limiting curves of partition-function zeros in the complex w-plane. For real w, we find two distinct phases separated by a transition point w=w_0, where w_0 = -1/4 (resp. w_0 = -0.1753 \pm 0.0002) for the square (resp. triangular) lattice. For w > w_0 we find a non-critical disordered phase, while for w < w_0 our results are compatible with a massless Berker-Kadanoff phase with conformal charge c = -2 and leading thermal scaling dimension x_{T,1} = 2 (marginal operator). At w = w_0 we find a "first-order critical point": the first derivative of the free energy is discontinuous at w_0, while the correlation length diverges as w \downarrow w_0 (and is infinite at w = w_0). The critical behavior at w = w_0 seems to be the same for both lattices and it differs from that of the Berker-Kadanoff phase: our results suggest that the conformal charge is c = -1, the leading thermal scaling dimension is x_{T,1} = 0, and the critical exponents are \nu = 1/d = 1/2 and \alpha = 1.Comment: 131 pages (LaTeX2e). Includes tex file, three sty files, and 65 Postscript figures. Also included are Mathematica files forests_sq_2-9P.m and forests_tri_2-9P.m. Final journal versio

The ‘mosaic habitat’ concept in human evolution: past and present

The habitats preferred by hominins and other species are an important theme in palaeoanthropology, and the ‘mosaic habitat’ (also referred to as habitat heterogeneity) has been a central concept in this regard for the last four decades. Here we explore the development of this concept – loosely defined as a range of different habitat types, such as woodlands, riverine forest and savannah within a limited spatial area– in studies of human evolution in the last sixty years or so. We outline the key developments that took place before and around the time when the term ‘mosaic’ came to wider palaeoanthropological attention. To achieve this we used an analysis of the published literature, a study of illustrations of hominin evolution from 1925 onwards and an email survey of senior researchers in palaeoanthropology and related fields. We found that the term mosaic starts to be applied in palaeoanthropological thinking during the 1970’s due to the work of a number of researchers, including Karl Butzer and Glynn Isaac , with the earliest usage we have found of ‘mosaic’ in specific reference to hominin habitats being by Adriaan Kortlandt (1972). While we observe a steady increase in the numbers of publications reporting mosaic palaeohabitats, in keeping with the growing interest and specialisation in various methods of palaeoenvironmental reconstruction, we also note that there is a lack of critical studies that define this habitat, or examine the temporal and spatial scales associated with it. The general consensus within the field is that the concept now requires more detailed definition and study to evaluate its role in human evolution

Post-acute COVID-19 neuropsychiatric symptoms are not associated with ongoing nervous system injury

A proportion of patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 experience a range of neuropsychiatric symptoms months after infection, including cognitive deficits, depression and anxiety. The mechanisms underpinning such symptoms remain elusive. Recent research has demonstrated that nervous system injury can occur during COVID-19. Whether ongoing neural injury in the months after COVID-19 accounts for the ongoing or emergent neuropsychiatric symptoms is unclear. Within a large prospective cohort study of adult survivors who were hospitalized for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, we analysed plasma markers of nervous system injury and astrocytic activation, measured 6 months post-infection: neurofilament light, glial fibrillary acidic protein and total tau protein. We assessed whether these markers were associated with the severity of the acute COVID-19 illness and with post-acute neuropsychiatric symptoms (as measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire for depression, the General Anxiety Disorder assessment for anxiety, the Montreal Cognitive Assessment for objective cognitive deficit and the cognitive items of the Patient Symptom Questionnaire for subjective cognitive deficit) at 6 months and 1 year post-hospital discharge from COVID-19. No robust associations were found between markers of nervous system injury and severity of acute COVID-19 (except for an association of small effect size between duration of admission and neurofilament light) nor with post-acute neuropsychiatric symptoms. These results suggest that ongoing neuropsychiatric symptoms are not due to ongoing neural injury