Evaluation of predictive models for post-fire debris flow occurrence in the western United States

Abstract. Rainfall-induced debris flows in recently burned mountainous areas cause significant economic losses and human casualties. Currently, prediction of post-fire debris flows is widely based on the use of power-law thresholds and logistic regression models. While these procedures have served with certain success in existing operational warning systems, in this study we investigate the potential to improve the efficiency of current predictive models with machine-learning approaches. Specifically, the performance of a predictive model based on the random forest algorithm is compared with current techniques for the prediction of post-fire debris flow occurrence in the western United States. The analysis is based on a database of post-fire debris flows recently published by the United States Geological Survey. Results show that predictive models based on random forest exhibit systematic and considerably improved performance with respect to the other models examined. In addition, the random-forest-based models demonstrated improvement in performance with increasing training sample size, indicating a clear advantage regarding their ability to successfully assimilate new information. Complexity, in terms of variables required for developing the predictive models, is deemed important but the choice of model used is shown to have a greater impact on the overall performance

Modeling the flood response for a sub-tropical urban basin in south Florida

A key area of research in hydrologic modeling is the prediction of flood response in complex urban basins with hydraulic structures such as pump stations, canals, culverts, and spillways. The prediction of the basin’s response to heavy rainfall is needed in order to assess the impacts of potential watershed management decisions, especially during high flow periods. In this study, the HEC-HMS model was adopted to predict the accumulated discharges in a small urban basin located in West Palm Beach, Florida, USA. The model was calibrated based on seven flood events and validated using seven independent events spanning a 5-year period. The results show that the accumulated flow of water released from the basin was simulated with high accuracy, and that the model can be used for various management scenarios involving high flow conditions in the south Florida urban basin

Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

Abstract. Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band) has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band) and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative \\mbox{integrated} decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) and the Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center hydrologic and hydraulic modelling chain. The characteristics of this tool make it ideal to support flood monitoring and forecasting within urban environment and small-scale basins. Preliminary results, carried out during a field campaign in Moldova, showed that the mini-radar based hydro-meteorological forecasting system can constitute a suitable solution for local flood warning and civil flood protection applications

Low oxygen tension primes aortic endothelial cells to the reparative effect of tissue-protective cytokines

Erythropoietin (EPO) has both erythropoietic and tissue-protective properties. The EPO analogues carbamylated EPO (CEPO) and pyroglutamate helix B surface peptide (pHBSP) lack the erythropoietic activity of EPO but retain the tissue-protective properties that are mediated by a heterocomplex of EPO receptor (EPOR) and the β common receptor (βCR). We studied the action of EPO and its analogues in a model of wound healing where a bovine aortic endothelial cells (BAECs) monolayer was scratched and the scratch closure was assessed over 24 h under different oxygen concentrations. We related the effects of EPO and its analogues on repair to their effect on BAECs proliferation and migration (evaluated using a micro-Boyden chamber). EPO, CEPO and pHBSP enhanced scratch closure only at lower oxygen (5%), while their effect at atmospheric oxygen (21%) was not significant. The mRNA expression of EPOR was doubled in 5% compared to 21% oxygen, and this was associated with increased EPOR assessed by immunofluorescence and Western blot. By contrast βCR mRNA levels were similar in 5% and 21% oxygen. EPO and its analogues increased both BAECs proliferation and migration, suggesting that both may be involved in the reparative process. The priming effect of low oxygen tension on the action of tissue-protective cytokines may be of relevance to vascular disease, including atherogenesis and restenosis

Neuroimaging Evidence of Major Morpho-Anatomical and Functional Abnormalities in the BTBR T+TF/J Mouse Model of Autism

BTBR T+tf/J (BTBR) mice display prominent behavioural deficits analogous to the defining symptoms of autism, a feature that has prompted a widespread use of the model in preclinical autism research. Because neuro-behavioural traits are described with respect to reference populations, multiple investigators have examined and described the behaviour of BTBR mice against that exhibited by C57BL/6J (B6), a mouse line characterised by high sociability and low self-grooming. In an attempt to probe the translational relevance of this comparison for autism research, we used Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) to map in both strain multiple morpho-anatomical and functional neuroimaging readouts that have been extensively used in patient populations. Diffusion tensor tractography confirmed previous reports of callosal agenesis and lack of hippocampal commissure in BTBR mice, and revealed a concomitant rostro-caudal reorganisation of major cortical white matter bundles. Intact inter-hemispheric tracts were found in the anterior commissure, ventro-medial thalamus, and in a strain-specific white matter formation located above the third ventricle. BTBR also exhibited decreased fronto-cortical, occipital and thalamic gray matter volume and widespread reductions in cortical thickness with respect to control B6 mice. Foci of increased gray matter volume and thickness were observed in the medial prefrontal and insular cortex. Mapping of resting-state brain activity using cerebral blood volume weighted fMRI revealed reduced cortico-thalamic function together with foci of increased activity in the hypothalamus and dorsal hippocampus of BTBR mice. Collectively, our results show pronounced functional and structural abnormalities in the brain of BTBR mice with respect to control B6 mice. The large and widespread white and gray matter abnormalities observed do not appear to be representative of the neuroanatomical alterations typically observed in autistic patients. The presence of reduced fronto-cortical metabolism is of potential translational relevance, as this feature recapitulates previously-reported clinical observations

The Serotonin Transporter Promoter Polymorphism and Childhood Positive and Negative Emotionality

Association studies of the serotonin transporter promoter polymorphism (5-HTTLPR) and negative emotionality (NE) are inconclusive. However, emerging evidence suggests that the association between this polymorphism and NE may be influenced by levels of another temperament trait, positive emotionality (PE). Therefore, this study examined whether the association between the 5-HTTLPR and NE was moderated by PE. A community sample of 413 three-year-old children completed a standardized battery of laboratory tasks designed to tap temperamental emotionality. Children were also genotyped for the 5-HTTLPR. No direct association between 5-HTTLPR genotype and NE was found. However, the interaction of child PE and NE predicted 5-HTTLPR genotype. Furthermore, children with a short allele who were also low in PE had significantly greater NE than children without a short allele or children with high PE. Our findings suggest that the short allele of the 5-HTTLPR is associated with NE only in the context of low PE. Inconsistent links between NE and this gene in previous research may stem from the failure to consider other temperament traits that moderate associations. © 2010 American Psychological Association

Intercalibration of the barrel electromagnetic calorimeter of the CMS experiment at start-up

Calibration of the relative response of the individual channels of the barrel electromagnetic calorimeter of the CMS detector was accomplished, before installation, with cosmic ray muons and test beams. One fourth of the calorimeter was exposed to a beam of high energy electrons and the relative calibration of the channels, the intercalibration, was found to be reproducible to a precision of about 0.3%. Additionally, data were collected with cosmic rays for the entire ECAL barrel during the commissioning phase. By comparing the intercalibration constants obtained with the electron beam data with those from the cosmic ray data, it is demonstrated that the latter provide an intercalibration precision of 1.5% over most of the barrel ECAL. The best intercalibration precision is expected to come from the analysis of events collected in situ during the LHC operation. Using data collected with both electrons and pion beams, several aspects of the intercalibration procedures based on electrons or neutral pions were investigated

Search for the standard model Higgs boson in the H to ZZ to 2l 2nu channel in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

A search for the standard model Higgs boson in the H to ZZ to 2l 2nu decay channel, where l = e or mu, in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV is presented. The data were collected at the LHC, with the CMS detector, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 inverse femtobarns. No significant excess is observed above the background expectation, and upper limits are set on the Higgs boson production cross section. The presence of the standard model Higgs boson with a mass in the 270-440 GeV range is excluded at 95% confidence level.Comment: Submitted to JHE

CALMS: Modelling the long-term health and economic impact of Covid-19 using agent-based simulation

Data Availability Statement: All data files are available from https://doi.org/10.17633/rd.brunel.19350518 The software is available on https://gitlab.com/anabrunel/calms.Copyright: © 2022 Mintram et al. We present our agent-based CoronAvirus Lifelong Modelling and Simulation (CALMS) model that aspires to predict the lifelong impacts of Covid-19 on the health and economy of a population. CALMS considers individual characteristics as well as comorbidities in calculating the risk of infection and severe disease. We conduct two sets of experiments aiming at demonstrating the validity and capabilities of CALMS. We run simulations retrospectively and validate the model outputs against hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities in a UK population for the period between March and September 2020. We then run simulations for the lifetime of the cohort applying a variety of targeted intervention strategies and compare their effectiveness against the baseline scenario where no intervention is applied. Four scenarios are simulated with targeted vaccination programmes and periodic lockdowns. Vaccinations are targeted first at individuals based on their age and second at vulnerable individuals based on their health status. Periodic lockdowns, triggered by hospitalisations, are tested with and without vaccination programme in place. Our results demonstrate that periodic lockdowns achieve reductions in hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities of 6-8% compared to the baseline scenario, with an associated intervention cost of £173 million per 1,000 people and targeted vaccination programmes achieve reductions in hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities of 89-90%, compared to the baseline scenario, with an associated intervention cost of £51,924 per 1,000 people. We conclude that periodic lockdowns alone are ineffective at reducing health-related outputs over the long-term and that vaccination programmes which target only the clinically vulnerable are sufficient in providing healthcare protection for the population as a whole.EU Horizon 2020 STAMINA project No. 883441 (https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/883441)