Weak Hadley cell intensity changes due to compensating effects of tropical and extratropical radiative forcing

The Hadley cell response to globally increasing CO2 concentrations is spatially complex, with an intensified rising branch and weakened descending branch. To better understand these changes, we examine the sensitivity of the Hadley cell to idealized radiative forcing in different latitude bands. The Hadley cell response is, to first order, governed by the latitudinal structure of the forcing. The strengthening of the upward branch is attributed to tropical forcing, whereas the weakening of the descending branch is attributed to extratropical forcing. These direct radiatively-forced Hadley cell responses are amplified by changes in atmospheric eddy heat transport while being partially offset by changes in gross moist stability and ocean heat uptake. The radiative feedbacks further modulate the Hadley cell response by altering the meridional atmospheric energy gradient. The Hadley cell projections under global warming are thus a result of opposing - and thus compensating - effects from tropical and extratropical radiative forcings

Walker circulation response to extratropical radiative forcing

Walker circulation variability and associated zonal shifts in the heating of the tropical atmosphere have far-reaching global impacts well into high latitudes. Yet the reversed high latitude-to-Walker circulation teleconnection is not fully understood. Here, we reveal the dynamical pathways of this teleconnection across different components of the climate system using a hierarchy of climate model simulations. In the fully coupled system with ocean circulation adjustments, the Walker circulation strengthens in response to extratropical radiative cooling of either hemisphere, associated with the upwelling of colder subsurface water in the eastern equatorial Pacific. By contrast, in the absence of ocean circulation adjustments, the Walker circulation response is sensitive to the forcing hemisphere, due to the blocking effect of the northward-displaced climatological intertropical convergence zone and shortwave cloud radiative effects. Our study implies that energy biases in the extratropics can cause pronounced changes of tropical climate patterns

Common Warming Pattern Emerges Irrespective of Forcing Location

The Earth's climate is changing due to the existence of multiple radiative forcing agents. It is under question whether different forcing agents perturb the global climate in a distinct way. Previous studies have demonstrated the existence of similar climate response patterns in response to aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings. In this study, the sensitivity of tropospheric temperature response patterns to surface heating distributions is assessed by forcing an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an aquaplanet slab ocean with a wide range of possible forcing patterns. We show that a common climate pattern emerges in response to localized forcing at different locations. This pattern, characterized by enhanced warming in the tropical upper troposphere and the polar lower troposphere, resembles the historical trends from observations and models as well as the future projections. Atmospheric dynamics in combination with thermodynamic air-sea coupling are primarily responsible for shaping this pattern. Identifying this common pattern strengthens our confidence in the projected response to GHG and aerosols in complex climate models

The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

Future changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and because the large internal variability of ENSO clouds the diagnosis of forced changes in observations and individual climate model simulations. By leveraging 14 single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability to anthropogenic forcing from internal variability in each SMILE. We find nonlinear changes in time in many models and considerable inter-model differences in projected changes in ENSO and the mean-state tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient. We demonstrate a linear relationship between the change in ENSO SST variability and the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient, although forced changes in the tropical Pacific SST gradient often occur later in the 21st century than changes in ENSO SST variability, which can lead to departures from the linear relationship. Single-forcing SMILEs show a potential contribution of anthropogenic forcing (aerosols and greenhouse gases) to historical changes in ENSO SST variability, while the observed historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific SST gradient sits on the edge of the model spread for those models for which single-forcing SMILEs are available. Our results highlight the value of SMILEs for investigating time-dependent forced responses and inter-model differences in ENSO projections. The nonlinear changes in ENSO SST variability found in many models demonstrate the importance of characterizing this time-dependent behavior, as it implies that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.</p

Impact of ENSO longitudinal position on teleconnections to the NAO

While significant improvements have been made in understanding how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts both North American and Asian climate, its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) remains less clear. Observations indicate that ENSO exhibits a highly complex relationship with the NAO-associated atmospheric circulation. One critical contribution to this ambiguous ENSO/NAO relationship originates from ENSO’s diversity in its spatial structure. In general, both eastern (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events tend to be accompanied by a negative NAO-like atmospheric response. However, for two different types of La Niña the NAO response is almost opposite. Thus, the NAO responses for the CP ENSO are mostly linear, while nonlinear NAO responses dominate for the EP ENSO. These contrasting extra-tropical atmospheric responses are mainly attributed to nonlinear air-sea interactions in the tropical eastern Pacific. The local atmospheric response to the CP ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is highly linear since the air-sea action center is located within the Pacific warm pool, characterized by relatively high climatological SSTs. In contrast, the EP ENSO SST anomalies are located in an area of relatively low climatological SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Here only sufficiently high positive SST anomalies during EP El Niño events are able to overcome the SST threshold for deep convection, while hardly any anomalous convection is associated with EP La Niña SSTs that are below this threshold. This ENSO/NAO relationship has important implications for NAO seasonal prediction and places a higher requirement on models in reproducing the full diversity of ENSO

Global lake responses to climate change

Climate change is one of the most severe threats to global lake ecosystems. Lake surface conditions, such as ice cover, surface temperature, evaporation and water level, respond dramatically to this threat, as observed in recent decades. In this Review, we discuss physical lake variables and their responses to climate change. Decreases in winter ice cover and increases in lake surface temperature modify lake mixing regimes and accelerate lake evaporation. Where not balanced by increased mean precipitation or inflow, higher evaporation rates will favour a decrease in lake level and surface water extent. Together with increases in extreme-precipitation events, these lake responses will impact lake ecosystems, changing water quantity and quality, food provisioning, recreational opportunities and transportation. Future research opportunities, including enhanced observation of lake variables from space (particularly for small water bodies), improved in situ lake monitoring and the development of advanced modelling techniques to predict lake processes, will improve our global understanding of lake responses to a changing climate

Trends and connections across the Antarctic cryosphere

Satellite observations have transformed our understanding of the Antarctic cryosphere. The continent holds the vast majority of Earth’s fresh water, and blankets swathes of the Southern Hemisphere in ice. Reductions in the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves have disturbed inland ice, triggering retreat, acceleration and drawdown of marine-terminating glaciers. The waxing and waning of Antarctic sea ice is one of Earth’s greatest seasonal habitat changes, and although the maximum extent of the sea ice has increased modestly since the 1970s, inter-annual variability is high, and there is evidence of longer-term decline in its extent

Distinct Surface Warming Response Over the Western and Eastern Equatorial Pacific to Radiative Forcing

This study examines regional characteristics of atmospheric and oceanic feedback processes in the western and eastern equatorial Pacific, by applying a localized surface heating in the respective region in a hierarchy of climate models. A western Pacific forcing is largely offset by a negative shortwave cloud radiative effect and damping via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. In contrast, an eastern Pacific forcing, while being partially compensated for by ocean dynamical adjustments, induces an amplified warming extending to the central Pacific due to weak local damping mechanisms. As for the inter-model spread of the future tropical Pacific surface warming pattern, the ocean heat uptake response in the east can explain much of the spread both on fast (&lt;5 years) and slow (&gt;100 years) timescales. Our results suggest that an &quot;El Nino-like&quot; warming pattern is probable in response to increasing greenhouse gases owing to the strong negative feedback intrinsic to the western Pacific. Plain Language Summary It is of question whether Earth&apos;s surface warming in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will be more amplified in the western (La Nina-like) or eastern (El Nino-like) part of the equatorial Pacific. This response is uncertain across climate models since multiple atmospheric and oceanic feedbacks operate in combination with their relative importance varying in time. We thus prescribe radiative heating either to the western or to the eastern tropical Pacific in a hierarchy of climate model simulations, varying in the degree of atmosphere-ocean coupling, in order to systematically examine different feedback mechanisms at work in the two regions, respectively. Our hierarchical model experiments reveal that strong negative atmospheric feedback mechanisms are intrinsic to the western Pacific while atmospheric feedbacks are less effective in the eastern Pacific with a partially offsetting effect from climatological oceanic upwelling. Therefore, the surface warming is likely to be amplified in the eastern rather than the western equatorial Pacific under uniform radiative heating. In addition, we invoke similar mechanisms to explain the inter-model spread of the future tropical Pacific surface warming pattern, in which uncertainty in ocean dynamical processes turns out to be important on both fast and slow timescales