Dynamical control of the mesosphere by orographic and non-orographic gravity wave drag during the extended northern winters of 2006 and 2009

A version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) that is nudged toward reanalysis data up to 1 hPa is used to examine the impacts of parameterized orographic and non-orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD and NGWD) on the zonal-mean circulation of the mesosphere during the extended northern winters of 2006 and 2009 when there were two large stratospheric sudden warmings. The simulations are compared to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations of mesospheric temperature, carbon monoxide (CO) and derived zonal winds. The control simulation, which uses both OGWD and NGWD, is shown to be in good agreement with MLS. The impacts of OGWD and NGWD are assessed using simulations in which those sources of wave drag are removed. In the absence of OGWD the mesospheric zonal winds in the months preceding the warmings are too strong, causing increased mesospheric NGWD, which drives excessive downwelling, resulting in overly large lower mesospheric values of CO prior to the warming. NGWD is found to be most important following the warmings when the underlying westerlies are too weak to allow much vertical propagation of the orographic gravity waves to the mesosphere. NGWD is primarily responsible for driving the circulation that results in the descent of CO from the thermosphere following the warmings. Zonal mean mesospheric winds and temperatures in all simulations are shown to be strongly constrained by (i.e. slaved to) the stratosphere. Finally, it is demonstrated that the responses to OGWD and NGWD are non-additive due to their dependence and influence on the background winds and temperatures

The climate impact of past changes in halocarbons and CO2in the tropical UTLS region

A chemistry-climate model coupled to an ocean model is used to compare the climate impact of past (1960-2010) changes in concentrations of halocarbons with those of CO2 in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The halocarbon contribution to both upper troposphere warming and the associated increase in lower stratospheric upwelling is about 40% as large as that due to CO2. Trends in cold-point temperature and lower stratosphere water vapor are positive for both halocarbons and CO2, and are of about the same magnitude. Trends in lower stratosphere ozone are negative, due to the increased upwelling. These increases in water vapor and decreases in lower stratosphere ozone feed back on lower stratosphere temperature through radiative cooling. The radiative cooling from ozone is about a factor of two larger than that from water vapor in the vicinity of the cold-point tropopause, while water vapor dominates at heights above 50 hPa. For halocarbons this indirect radiative cooling more than offsets the direct radiative warming, and together with the adiabatic cooling accounts for the lack of a halocarbon-induced warming of the lower stratosphere. For CO2 the indirect cooling from increased water vapor and decreased ozone is of comparable magnitude to the direct warming from CO2 in the vicinity of the cold-point tropopause, and (together with the increased upwelling) lowers the height at which CO2 increases induce stratospheric cooling, thus explaining the relatively weak increase in cold-point temperature due to the CO2 increases

Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part I: Southern Hemisphere stratosphere

A version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model that is coupled to an ocean is used to investigate the separate effects of climate change and ozone depletion on the dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere. This is achieved by performing three sets of simulations extending from 1960 to 2099: 1) greenhouse gases (GHGs) fixed at 1960 levels and ozone depleting substances (ODSs) varying in time, 2) ODSs fixed at 1960 levels and GHGs varying in time, and 3) both GHGs and ODSs varying in time. The response of various dynamical quantities to theGHGand ODS forcings is shown to be additive; that is, trends computed from the sum of the first two simulations are equal to trends from the third. Additivity is shown to hold for the zonal mean zonal wind and temperature, the mass flux into and out of the stratosphere, and the latitudinally averaged wave drag in SH spring and summer, as well as for final warming dates. Ozone depletion and recovery causes seasonal changes in lower-stratosphere mass flux, with reduced polar downwelling in the past followed by increased downwelling in the future in SH spring, and the reverse in SH summer. These seasonal changes are attributed to changes in wave drag caused by ozone-induced changes in the zonal mean zonal winds. Climate change, on the other hand, causes a steady decrease in wave drag during SH spring, which delays the breakdown of the vortex, resulting in increased wave drag in summe

Social network analysis shows direct evidence for social transmission of tool use in wild chimpanzees

The authors are grateful to the Royal Zoological Society of Scotland for providing core funding for the Budongo Conservation Field Station. The fieldwork of CH was funded by the Leverhulme Trust, the Lucie Burgers Stichting, and the British Academy. TP was funded by the Canadian Research Chair in Continental Ecosystem Ecology, and received computational support from the Theoretical Ecosystem Ecology group at UQAR. The research leading to these results has received funding from the People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) and from the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) REA grant agreement n°329197 awarded to TG, ERC grant agreement n° 283871 awarded to KZ. WH was funded by a BBSRC grant (BB/I007997/1).Social network analysis methods have made it possible to test whether novel behaviors in animals spread through individual or social learning. To date, however, social network analysis of wild populations has been limited to static models that cannot precisely reflect the dynamics of learning, for instance, the impact of multiple observations across time. Here, we present a novel dynamic version of network analysis that is capable of capturing temporal aspects of acquisition-that is, how successive observations by an individual influence its acquisition of the novel behavior. We apply this model to studying the spread of two novel tool-use variants, "moss-sponging'' and "leaf-sponge re-use,'' in the Sonso chimpanzee community of Budongo Forest, Uganda. Chimpanzees are widely considered the most "cultural'' of all animal species, with 39 behaviors suspected as socially acquired, most of them in the domain of tool-use. The cultural hypothesis is supported by experimental data from captive chimpanzees and a range of observational data. However, for wild groups, there is still no direct experimental evidence for social learning, nor has there been any direct observation of social diffusion of behavioral innovations. Here, we tested both a static and a dynamic network model and found strong evidence that diffusion patterns of moss-sponging, but not leaf-sponge re-use, were significantly better explained by social than individual learning. The most conservative estimate of social transmission accounted for 85% of observed events, with an estimated 15-fold increase in learning rate for each time a novice observed an informed individual moss-sponging. We conclude that group-specific behavioral variants in wild chimpanzees can be socially learned, adding to the evidence that this prerequisite for culture originated in a common ancestor of great apes and humans, long before the advent of modern humans.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

New transmission-selective antimalarial agents through hit-to-lead optimization of 2-([1,1 '-Biphenyl]-4-carboxamido)benzoic acid derivatives

Malaria elimination requires multipronged approaches, including the application of antimalarial drugs able to block humanto- mosquito transmission of malaria parasites. The transmissible gametocytes of Plasmodium falciparum seem to be highly sensitive towards epidrugs, particularly those targeting demethylation of histone post-translational marks. Here, we report exploration of compounds from a chemical library generated during hit-to-lead optimization of inhibitors of the human histone lysine demethylase, KDM4B. Derivatives of 2-([1,1’- biphenyl]-4-carboxamido) benzoic acid, around either the amide or a sulfonamide linker backbone (2-(arylcarboxamido) benzoic acid, 2-carboxamide (arylsulfonamido)benzoic acid and N-(2-(1H-tetrazol-5-yl)phenyl)-arylcarboxamide), showed potent activity towards late-stage gametocytes (stage IV/V) of P. falciparum, with the most potent compound reaching single digit nanomolar activity. Structure-activity relationship trends were evident and frontrunner compounds also displayed microsomal stability and favourable solubility profiles. Simplified synthetic routes support further derivatization of these compounds for further development of these series as malaria transmission-blocking agents.South African National Research Foundation; BMGF Grand Challenges Africa; South African Medical Research Council (SA MRC); South Carolina SmartState® Endowed Chair for Drug Discovery.https://chemistry-europe.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/14397633am2023BiochemistryGeneticsMicrobiology and Plant PathologySchool of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH)UP Centre for Sustainable Malaria Control (UP CSMC

Footprint evidence of early hominin locomotor diversity at Laetoli, Tanzania

Bipedal trackways discovered in 1978 at Laetoli site G, Tanzania and dated to 3.66 million years ago are widely accepted as the oldest unequivocal evidence of obligate bipedalism in the human lineage1-3. Another trackway discovered two years earlier at nearby site A was partially excavated and attributed to a hominin, but curious affinities with bears (ursids) marginalized its importance to the paleoanthropological community, and the location of these footprints fell into obscurity3-5. In 2019, we located, excavated and cleaned the site A trackway, producing a digital archive using 3D photogrammetry and laser scanning. Here we compare the footprints at this site with those of American black bears, chimpanzees and humans, and we show that they resemble those of hominins more than ursids. In fact, the narrow step width corroborates the original interpretation of a small, cross-stepping bipedal hominin. However, the inferred foot proportions, gait parameters and 3D morphologies of footprints at site A are readily distinguished from those at site G, indicating that a minimum of two hominin taxa with different feet and gaits coexisted at Laetoli

Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taking place to increase understanding of the processes and mechanisms required to produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction of future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, the predictability of the evolving externally-forced and internally-generated components of the climate system can now be quantified. Decision-makers in key sectors of the economy can now begin to assess the utility of these products for informing climate risk and for planning adaptation and resilience strategies up to a decade into the future. Here, case studies are presented from finance and economics, water management, agriculture and fisheries management demonstrating the emerging utility and potential of operational NTCP to inform strategic planning across a broad range of applications in key sectors of the global economy

Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part II: Southern Hemisphere troposphere

The separate effects of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on forcing circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere are investigated using a version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) that is coupled to an ocean. Circulation-related diagnostics include zonal wind, tropopause pressure, Hadley cell width, jet location, annular mode index, precipitation, wave drag, and eddy fluxes of momentum and heat. As expected, the tropospheric response to the ODS forcing occurs primarily in austral summer, with past (1960-99) and future (2000-99) trends of opposite sign, while the GHG forcing produces more seasonally uniform trends with the same sign in the past and future. In summer the ODS forcing dominates past trends in all diagnostics, while the two forcings contribute nearly equally but oppositely to future trends. The ODS forcing produces a past surface temperature response consisting of cooling over eastern Antarctica, and is the dominant driver of past summertime surface temperature changes when the model is constrained by observed sea surface temperatures. For all diagnostics, the response to the ODS and GHG forcings is additive: that is, the linear trend computed from the simulations using the combined forcings equals (within statistical uncertainty) the sum of the linear trends from the simulations using the two separate forcings. Space time spectra of eddy fluxes and the spatial distribution of transient wave drag are examined to assess the viability of several recently proposed mechanisms for the observed poleward shift in the tropospheric jet

Patient identification of diagnostic safety blindspots and participation in “good catches” through shared visit notes

Context: Policy shifts toward health information transparency provide a new opportunity for patients to contribute to diagnostic safety. We investigated whether sharing clinical notes with patients can support identification of “diagnostic safety blindspots” - potentially consequential breakdowns in the diagnostic process that may be difficult for clinical staff to observe. Method: We used mixed methods to analyze patient-reported ambulatory documentation errors among 22,889 patients who read >1 visit note(s) at 3 US healthcare centers. We identified blindspots using and tailoring a previously established taxonomy. We used multiple regression analysis to identify factors associated with blindspot identification. Findings: 774 patients reported a total of 962 blindspots in 4 categories: (1) diagnostic misalignments (n=421, 43.8%), including inaccurate symptoms or histories and failures or delay in diagnosis; (2) errors of omission (38.1%) including missed main concerns or next steps, and failure to listen to patients; (3) problems occurring outside visits (14.3%) such as tests, referrals, or appointment access; and (4) multiple low-level problems (3.7%) cascading into diagnostic breakdowns. Many patients acted on the blindspots they identified, resulting in “good catches” that may prevent potential negative consequences. Older, female, sicker, unemployed or disabled patients, or those who work in healthcare were more likely to identify a blindspot. Individuals reporting less formal education; those self-identifying as Black, Asian, other or multiple races; or participants who deferred decision-making to providers were less likely to report a blindspot. Conclusion: Patients who read notes have unique insight about potential errors in their medical records that could impact diagnostic reasoning, but may not be known by clinicians - underscoring a critical role for patients in diagnostic safety and organizational learning. From a policy standpoint, organizations should encourage patient review of visit notes, build systems to track patient-reported blindspots, and promote equity in note access and blindspot reportin