Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods-wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling-we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens

First-principles calculation of the thermal properties of silver

The thermal properties of silver are calculated within the quasi-harmonic approximation, by using phonon dispersions from density-functional perturbation theory, and the pseudopotential plane-wave method. The resulting free energy provides predictions for the temperature dependence of various quantities such as the equilibrium lattice parameter, the bulk modulus, and the heat capacity. Our results for the thermal properties are in good agreement with available experimental data in a wide range of temperatures. As a by-product, we calculate phonon frequency and Grueneisen parameter dispersion curves which are also in good agreement with experiment.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. B April 30, 1998). Other related publications can be found at http://www.rz-berlin.mpg.de/th/paper.htm

Ab initio study of the volume dependence of dynamical and thermodynamical properties of silicon

Motivated by the negative thermal expansion observed for silicon between 20 K and 120 K, we present first an ab initio study of the volume dependence of interatomic force constants, phonon frequencies of TA(X) and TA(L) modes, and of the associated mode Gruneisen parameters. The influence of successive nearest neighbors shells is analysed. Analytical formulas, taking into account interactions up to second nearest neighbors, are developped for phonon frequencies of TA(X) and TA(L) modes and the corresponding mode Gruneisen parameters. We also analyze the volume and pressure dependence of various thermodynamic properties (specific heat, bulk modulus, thermal expansion), and point out the effect of the negative mode Gruneisen parameters of the acoustic branches on these properties. Finally, we present the evolution of the mean square atomic displacement and of the atomic temperature factor with the temperature for different volumes, for which the anomalous effects are even greater.Comment: 24 pages, Revtex 3.0, 11 figures, accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Surface relaxation and ferromagnetism of Rh(001)

The significant discrepancy between first-principles calculations and experimental analyses for the relaxation of the (001) surface of rhodium has been a puzzle for some years. In this paper we present density functional theory calculations using the local-density approximation and the generalized gradient approximation of the exchange-correlation functional. We investigate the thermal expansion of the surface and the possibility of surface magnetism. The results throw light on several, hitherto overlooked, aspects of metal surfaces. We find, that, when the free energy is considered, density-functional theory provides results in good agreement with experiments.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett. (April 28, 1996

Temperature dependent surface relaxations of Ag(111)

The temperature dependent surface relaxation of Ag(111) is calculated by density-functional theory. At a given temperature, the equilibrium geometry is determined by minimizing the Helmholtz free energy within the quasiharmonic approximation. To this end, phonon dispersions all over the Brillouin zone are determined from density-functional perturbation theory. We find that the top-layer relaxation of Ag(111) changes from an inward contraction (-0.8 %) to an outward expansion (+6.3%) as the temperature increases from T=0 K to 1150 K, in agreement with experimental findings. Also the calculated surface phonon dispersion curves at room temperature are in good agreement with helium scattering measurements. The mechanism driving this surface expansion is analyzed.Comment: 6 pages, 7 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. B (May 1998). Other related publications can be found at http://www.rz-berlin.mpg.de/th/paper.htm

Fuzzy cluster validation using the partition negentropy criterion

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-04277-5_24Proceedings of the 19th International Conference, Limassol, Cyprus, September 14-17, 2009We introduce the Partition Negentropy Criterion (PNC) for cluster validation. It is a cluster validity index that rewards the average normality of the clusters, measured by means of the negentropy, and penalizes the overlap, measured by the partition entropy. The PNC is aimed at finding well separated clusters whose shape is approximately Gaussian. We use the new index to validate fuzzy partitions in a set of synthetic clustering problems, and compare the results to those obtained by the AIC, BIC and ICL criteria. The partitions are obtained by fitting a Gaussian Mixture Model to the data using the EM algorithm. We show that, when the real clusters are normally distributed, all the criteria are able to correctly assess the number of components, with AIC and BIC allowing a higher cluster overlap. However, when the real cluster distributions are not Gaussian (i.e. the distribution assumed by the mixture model) the PNC outperforms the other indices, being able to correctly evaluate the number of clusters while the other criteria (specially AIC and BIC) tend to overestimate it.This work has been partially supported with funds from MEC BFU2006-07902/BFI, CAM S-SEM-0255-2006 and CAM/UAM project CCG08-UAM/TIC-442

Biclustering models for two-mode ordinal data

The work in this paper introduces finite mixture models that can be used to simul- taneously cluster the rows and columns of two-mode ordinal categorical response data, such as those resulting from Likert scale responses. We use the popular proportional odds parameterisation and propose models which provide insights into major patterns in the data. Model-fitting is performed using the EM algorithm and a fuzzy allocation of rows and columns to corresponding clusters is obtained. The clustering ability of the models is evaluated in a simulation study and demonstrated using two real data sets

A cross-national study on the antecedents of work–life balance from the fit and balance perspective

Drawing on the perceived work–family fit and balance perspective, this study investigates demands and resources as antecedents of work–life balance (WLB) across four countries (New Zealand, France, Italy and Spain), so as to provide empirical cross-national evidence. Using structural equation modelling analysis on a sample of 870 full time employees, we found that work demands, hours worked and family demands were negatively related to WLB, while job autonomy and supervisor support were positively related to WLB. We also found evidence that resources (job autonomy and supervisor support) moderated the relationships between demands and work–life balance, with high resources consistently buffering any detrimental influence of demands on WLB. Furthermore, our study identified additional predictors of WLB that were unique to some national contexts. For example, in France and Italy, overtime hours worked were negatively associated with WLB, while parental status was positively associated with WLB. Overall, the implications for theory and practice are discussed.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft