A systematic assessment of maritime disruptions affecting UK ports, coastal areas and surrounding seas from 1950 to 2014

Maritime disruptions can have severe negative implications including affecting business operations, regional and national economies and causing damage to vessels. This study analysed maritime disruptions in UK ports, coastal areas and surrounding seas from 1950 to 2014, systematically assessing their scale, duration, extent and consequences. Disruptions are a single or sequence of hazardous events that negatively affect ‘business as usual’ conditions, ranging from minor to major disruption and even loss of life. To express this range, a severity scale was developed and applied. A database of maritime disruptions and their severities was constructed using data archaeology, identifying 88 events, primarily caused by wind storms (36 %), human error (23 %), mechanical faults (14 %) and storm surges (12 %). All events other than human error or mechanical faults occurred between October and March (typically associated with autumn/winter storms and depressions), with 65 % recorded between November and January. Maritime disruptions from weather events tended to have regional/national impacts, whereas human error or mechanical faults were usually locally severe. Since 2000, ports demonstrated more frequent disruption to wind storms due to mechanization, increased delay and closure reporting, and refined health and safety regulations. Most frequently affected were the sea areas Fair Isle and Dover, and the Felixstowe and Dover ports. Through time, primary impacts shifted from extensive flooding and structural damage to financial impacts and disruption, associated with adaptation including implementation/upgrading of coastal defences, storm warning systems and legislation. Port and governmental bodies responded adaptively (e.g. Thames Barrier construction and development of automatic tracking systems). The UK’s maritime disruption vulnerability has altered significantly since 1950 and continues to evolve

Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific

The seasonal sea level variations observed from tide gauges over 1900-2013 and gridded satellite altimeter product AVISO over 1993-2013 in the northwest Pacific have been explored. The seasonal cycle is able to explain 60-90% of monthly sea level variance in the marginal seas, while it explains less than 20% of variance in the eddy-rich regions. The maximum annual and semi-annual sea level cycles (30cm and 6cm) are observed in the north of the East China Sea and the west of the South China Sea respectively. AVISO was found to underestimate the annual amplitude by 25% compared to tide gauge estimates along the coasts of China and Russia. The forcing for the seasonal sea level cycle was identified. The atmospheric pressure and the steric height produce 8-12cm of the annual cycle in the middle continental shelf and in the Kuroshio Current regions separately. The removal of the two attributors from total sea level permits to identify the sea level residuals that still show significant seasonality in the marginal seas. Both nearby wind stress and surface currents can explain well the long-term variability of the seasonal sea level cycle in the marginal seas and the tropics because of their influence on the sea level residuals. Interestingly, the surface currents are a better descriptor in the areas where the ocean currents are known to be strong. Here, they explain 50-90% of inter-annual variability due to the strong links between the steric height and the large-scale ocean currents

The effect of the NAO on sea level and on mass changes in the Mediterranean Sea

Sea level in the Mediterranean Sea over the period 1993–2011 is studied on the basis of altimetry, temperature, and salinity data and gravity measurements from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) (2002–2010). An observed increase in sea level corresponds to a linear sea level trend of 3.0 ± 0.5 mm/yr dominated by the increase in the oceanic mass in the basin. The increase in sea level does not, however, take place linearly but over two 2–3 year periods, each contributing 2–3 cm of sea level. Variability in the basin sea level and its mass component is dominated by the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO influence on sea level is primarily linked with atmospheric pressure changes and local wind field changes. However, neither the inverse barometer correction nor a barotropic sea level model forced by atmospheric pressure and wind can remove fully the NAO influence on the basin sea level. Thus, a third contributing mechanism linked with the NAO is suggested. During winter 2010, a low NAO index caused a basin sea level increase of 12 cm which was almost wholly due to mass changes and is evidenced by GRACE. About 8 cm of the observed sea level change can be accounted for as due to atmospheric pressure and wind changes. The residual 4 cm of sea level change is caused by the newly identified contribution. The physical mechanisms that may be responsible for this additional contribution are discussed

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air–sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961–2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001–2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air–sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070–2099 period compared to 1961–1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070–2099 vs. 1961–1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing

A dynamic explanation for the origin of the western Mediterranean organic-rich layers

The eastern Mediterranean sapropels are among the most intensively investigated phenomena in the paleoceanographic record, but relatively little has been written regarding the origin of the equivalent of the sapropels in the western Mediterranean, the organic-rich layers (ORLs). ORLs are recognized as sediment layers containing enhanced total organic carbon that extend throughout the deep basins of the western Mediterranean and are associated with enhanced total barium concentration and a reduced diversity (dysoxic but not anoxic) benthic foraminiferal assemblage. Consequently, it has been suggested that ORLs represent periods of enhanced productivity coupled with reduced deep ventilation, presumably related to increased continental runoff, in close analogy to the sapropels. We demonstrate that despite their superficial similarity, the timing of the deposition of the most recent ORL in the Alboran Sea is different than that of the approximately coincident sapropel, indicating that there are important differences between their modes of formation. We go on to demonstrate, through physical arguments, that a likely explanation for the origin of the Alboran ORLs lies in the response of the western Mediterranean basin to a strong reduction in surface water density and a shoaling of the interface between intermediate and deep water during the deglacial period. Furthermore, we provide evidence that deep convection had already slowed by the time of Heinrich Event 1 and explore this event as a potential agent for preconditioning deep convection collapse. Important differences between Heinrich-like and deglacial-like influences are highlighted, giving new insights into the response of the western Mediterranean system to external forcing

Investigation of sea level around the island of Gavdos from ten years of TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimetry data

The European Union project ‘GAVDOS’ (MERTIKAS & PAVLIS, 1999) has been designed to lead to the establishment of a calibration and sea level monitoring site for the JASON-1 and ENVISAT satellites as well as the GLObal Sea level monitoring System (GLOSS). Within the context of this project, nearly ten years of TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimetry data (cycle 1 to 364) from the vicinity of the Gavdos Island (Crete, Greece) have been processed and analysed. The results presented here are from the application of a method that incorporates the calculation of a corrected sea surface height from the altimetry data, along-track and cross-track data interpolation because of orbital drift, near coastal error filtering, and the use of a new geoid for the area. This method was applied in order to create ten year time series of sea level and associated parameters for the area around Gavdos island. The results reveal the pattern of sea level and local seasonal cycle around Gavdos over the last ten years

Inter-annual and decadal sea level variations in the North-western Pacific marginal seas

[eng] Long term sea level changes in the Okhotsk, Japan/East, East China and Yellow Seas have been explored based on mean monthly values of sea level from tide gauge and altimetry measurements. The analysis of low frequency sea level variability reveals clearly differentiated areas: the Okhotsk Sea and the northern sector of the Japan/East Sea display lower sea level variances and no sea level rise. The southern Japan/East Sea presents larger sea level variability associated with the circulation regime of the warm current entering through the Tsushima Strait and inter-annual sea level variations that are driven by steric and atmospheric changes. The largest sea level variances are found in the Yellow Sea due to the effect of atmospheric forcing over the continental shelf. Inter-annual variability is spatially varying within the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea and is mainly related to the steric sea level changes. Regional mean sea level indices have been synthesized for each area using the longest tide gauge records and have revealed correlations between the southern Japan/East and Yellow Seas with PDO and NP climatic indices. Linear trends at coastal sites in the Japan/East, East China and Yellow Seas show a rather heterogeneous pattern, with values between −1.5 and 5.5 mm/yr for the period 1960–2000. During the period 1993–2008 linear trends derived from coastal tide gauges and from altimetry observations are coherent and reveal a southwards increasing pattern with maximum averaged values reached at the Yellow Sea (4.9 ± 1.9 mm/yr) followed by the Japan/East Sea (3.8 ± 0.9 mm/yr). Decadal rates of sea level change show distinct behaviour among basins as well as with the global average. The southern Japan/East Sea, the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea display decadal variability which is out of phase with respect to the global values