Income effects, cost damping and the value of time: theoretical properties embedded within practical travel choice models

Mackie et al. (Values of travel time savings in the UK. Report to Department for Transport. Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds & John Bates Services, Leeds and Abingdon, 2003) proposed an identity relating the value of time (VoT) for commute and leisure travel to income and travel cost, reporting the prevalence of ‘cost damping’ (i.e. the phenomenon where VoT increases as travel cost increases). This identity (or a variant thereof) has been adopted within official methods for estimating VoT in the UK, Switzerland and The Netherlands. The present paper shows that Mackie et al.’s identity: (i) implies linear preferences, not strictly convex preferences as reported by Mackie et al.; (ii) complies with homogeneity and symmetry by construction; (iii) complies with adding-up if and only if VoT is unit elastic with respect to income; (iv) complies with negativity if VoT is unit elastic or greater with respect to income; (v) violates both adding-up and negativity in the case of the 2003 UK national VoT study. We propose alternative identities which comply with adding-up and homogeneity by construction, and offer comparable fit to Mackie et al.’s identity on the UK VoT dataset. We also find that the imposition of adding-up and negativity on Mackie et al.’s identity, through appropriate constraint on model estimation, leads to an increase of around 20% in valuations from the 2003 UK dataset

Limiting distributions for explosive PAR(1) time series with strongly mixing innovation

This work deals with the limiting distribution of the least squares estimators of the coefficients a r of an explosive periodic autoregressive of order 1 (PAR(1)) time series X r = a r X r--1 +u r when the innovation {u k } is strongly mixing. More precisely {a r } is a periodic sequence of real numbers with period P \textgreater{} 0 and such that P r=1 |a r | \textgreater{} 1. The time series {u r } is periodically distributed with the same period P and satisfies the strong mixing property, so the random variables u r can be correlated

HIV Epidemic Appraisals for Assisting in the Design of Effective Prevention Programmes: Shifting the Paradigm Back to Basics

To design HIV prevention programmes, it is critical to understand the temporal and geographic aspects of the local epidemic and to address the key behaviours that drive HIV transmission. Two methods have been developed to appraise HIV epidemics and guide prevention strategies. The numerical proxy method classifies epidemics based on current HIV prevalence thresholds. The Modes of Transmission (MOT) model estimates the distribution of incidence over one year among risk-groups. Both methods focus on the current state of an epidemic and provide short-term metrics which may not capture the epidemiologic drivers. Through a detailed analysis of country and sub-national data, we explore the limitations of the two traditional methods and propose an alternative approach.We compared outputs of the traditional methods in five countries for which results were published, and applied the numeric and MOT model to India and six districts within India. We discovered three limitations of the current methods for epidemic appraisal: (1) their results failed to identify the key behaviours that drive the epidemic; (2) they were difficult to apply to local epidemics with heterogeneity across district-level administrative units; and (3) the MOT model was highly sensitive to input parameters, many of which required extraction from non-regional sources. We developed an alternative decision-tree framework for HIV epidemic appraisals, based on a qualitative understanding of epidemiologic drivers, and demonstrated its applicability in India. The alternative framework offered a logical algorithm to characterize epidemics; it required minimal but key data.Traditional appraisals that utilize the distribution of prevalent and incident HIV infections in the short-term could misguide prevention priorities and potentially impede efforts to halt the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. An approach that characterizes local transmission dynamics provides a potentially more effective tool with which policy makers can design intervention programmes

Impact of maternal body mass index and gestational weight gain on pregnancy complications : an individual participant data meta-analysis of European, North American and Australian cohorts

Objective To assess the separate and combined associations of maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and gestational weight gain with the risks of pregnancy complications and their population impact. Design Individual participant data meta-analysis of 39 cohorts. Setting Europe, North America, and Oceania. Population 265 270 births. Methods Information on maternal pre-pregnancy BMI, gestational weight gain, and pregnancy complications was obtained. Multilevel binary logistic regression models were used. Main outcome measures Gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, preterm birth, small and large for gestational age at birth. Results Higher maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and gestational weight gain were, across their full ranges, associated with higher risks of gestational hypertensive disorders, gestational diabetes, and large for gestational age at birth. Preterm birth risk was higher at lower and higher BMI and weight gain. Compared with normal weight mothers with medium gestational weight gain, obese mothers with high gestational weight gain had the highest risk of any pregnancy complication (odds ratio 2.51, 95% CI 2.31- 2.74). We estimated that 23.9% of any pregnancy complication was attributable to maternal overweight/obesity and 31.6% of large for gestational age infants was attributable to excessive gestational weight gain. Conclusions Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and gestational weight gain are, across their full ranges, associated with risks of pregnancy complications. Obese mothers with high gestational weight gain are at the highest risk of pregnancy complications. Promoting a healthy pre-pregnancy BMI and gestational weight gain may reduce the burden of pregnancy complications and ultimately the risk of maternal and neonatal morbidity.Peer reviewe

Sociodemographic correlates of food habits among school adolescents (12–15 year) in north Gaza Strip

Background: There is little information about meal patterns and food consumption of adolescents in Palestine. The objective of this study was to describe the association between sociodemographic factors and food intake, and meal patterns among Palestinian school adolescents (12–15 year) in North Gaza Strip. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2002 comprising 944 subjects in 10 schools in Gaza city, Jabalia village and Jabalia refugee camp. Self-administered questionnaires were filled in by students and parents to obtain data on frequency of meals, food intake and sociodemographic characteristics. Results: High household socioeconomic status (SES) was associated with the increased number of meals and the increased intakes of many nutritious foods such as; animal food items, fruits and vegetables and dairy foods. The percentage of adolescents having breakfast daily of high and low SES was 74.5% vs 55% in boys and 65.6% vs 45% in girls. The percentage of girls with refugee status who had lunch was higher (90.2%) compared to the local citizen girls (83.9%), (p = 0.03). Girls were less likely to skip daily lunch (OR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.36–0.87, p = 0.01) compared to boys. Risk of skipping lunch was three times higher among adolescents living in the village compared to Gaza well-off area (OR = 3.3, 95% CI = 1.72–6.31, p < 0.001). Adolescents who were having lunch daily were less likely to skip breakfast or dinner. Only 11.6% of boys and 16.2% of girls consumed fruits daily. In multivariate analysis, SES was positively associated with food frequency intake scores in both genders. Boys from the refugee camp and the village had a significant higher consumption of fruits and vegetables than boys from high and low income area in Gaza City, while it was the opposite in girls. Conclusion: Meal skipping is common, particularly among those of low SES and the intakes of many nutritious foods such as animal food items, fruits and vegetables and dairy foods seem to be low among adolescents of low SES. The results of this study could be used as an important baseline for future monitoring of the nutritional situation of adolescents.Abdallah H Abudayya, Hein Stigum, Zumin Shi, Yehia Abed and Gerd Holmboe-Ottese

International money markets: eurocurrencies

Eurocurrencies are international markets for short-term wholesale bank deposits and loans. They emerged in Western Europe in the late 1950s and rapidly reached a global scale. A Eurocurrency is a form of bank money: an unsecured short-term bank debt denominated in a currency (for instance, US dollars) but issued by banks operating offshore, in a geographical location or a legal space situated outside of the jurisdiction of the national authorities presiding over that currency (for instance, the Federal Reserve). In Eurocurrency markets, banks intermediate mainly between foreign residents. They borrow funds by "accepting" foreign currency deposits and lend foreign currency-denominated funds by "placing" deposits with other banks, by granting short-term loans or investing in other liquid assets. Historically, Eurodollars accounted for the largest share of Eurocurrencies, although other international currencies (Deutsche Marks, Japanese yens, and especially Euros since 1999) played an important role. Eurocurrency markets were a manifestation of financial integration and interdependence in a globalizing economy and performed critical functions in the distribution and creation of international liquidity. At the same time, their fast growth was a recurrent source of concerns for central bankers and policymakers due to their implications for macroeconomic policies and financial stability. This chapter analyzes different aspects of the historical development of Eurocurrency markets and their role in the international monetary and financial system. The first part discusses theoretical interpretations, presents estimates of markets' size, describes their structure, and explains the determinants of their growth. The second part analyzes the spread between Eurodollar rates and other US money market rates, the role of arbitrage, the evolution of risk factors, and the causes of historical episodes of stress and contagion in the interbank market. The last part discusses political economy issues, such as the role of governments and market forces in the emergence of Eurodollars in the 1950s and the failed attempts to impose multilateral controls on Eurocurrency markets in the 1970s

Why do banks promise to pay par on demand?

We survey the theories of why banks promise to pay par on demand and examine evidence about the conditions under which banks have promised to pay the par value of deposits and banknotes on demand when holding only fractional reserves. The theoretical literature can be broadly divided into four strands: liquidity provision, asymmetric information, legal restrictions, and a medium of exchange. We assume that it is not zero cost to make a promise to redeem a liability at par value on demand. If so, then the conditions in the theories that result in par redemption are possible explanations of why banks promise to pay par on demand. If the explanation based on customers’ demand for liquidity is correct, payment of deposits at par will be promised when banks hold assets that are illiquid in the short run. If the asymmetric-information explanation based on the difficulty of valuing assets is correct, the marketability of banks’ assets determines whether banks promise to pay par. If the legal restrictions explanation of par redemption is correct, banks will not promise to pay par if they are not required to do so. If the transaction explanation is correct, banks will promise to pay par value only if the deposits are used in transactions. After the survey of the theoretical literature, we examine the history of banking in several countries in different eras: fourth-century Athens, medieval Italy, Japan, and free banking and money market mutual funds in the United States. We find that all of the theories can explain some of the observed banking arrangements, and none explain all of them