Exploratory Research into the Resilience of Farming Systems during Periods of Hardship

This paper investigates the management strategies and responses used by New Zealand sheep and beef farmers to ensure resilience during periods of hardship. Using two, farm level surveys conducted in 1986 and 2010, some aspects of resilient farming systems were identified. Despite apparent hardship current farmers seemed more willing to take risks, with many more borrowing to invest in on farm developments than those in 1986. The main similarity between time periods was the greatest response to economic changes being the adoption of a low input policy. This result was quite significant, as conventional farmers are generally believed to resort to other strategies or responses.Resilience, New Zealand, indicators, sustainable agriculture, strategies, Agribusiness, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics,

Computational finance: correlation, volatility, and markets

Financial data by nature are inter-related and should be analyzed using multivariate methods. Many models exist for the joint analysis of multiple financial instruments. Early models often assumed some type of constant behavior between the instruments over the time period of analysis. But today, time-varying covariance models are a key component of financial time series analysis leading to a deeper understanding of changing market conditions. Models for covolatility of financial data quickly grow in their complexity and parameters, and 20 years of research offers a variety of solutions to this complexity. After a short introduction of univariate volatility models, this article begins with the basic multivariate formulation for time series covariance modeling and moves to leading time series tools that address this complexity. Coupling these models with regime switching via a Markov process extends the features that can be understood from market behavior. We ground this review in an example of modeling the covariance of securities within sectors and sectors within markets, with dynamics that allow for two different market regimes. Specifically, we simultaneously model individual daily stock data that belong to one of three market sectors and examine the behavior of the market as a whole as well as the behavior of the market sectors over time. A motivation for this characterization concerns portfolio diversification and stock anomalies, and we capture the changing comovement of stocks within and between sectors as market conditions change. For example, some of these market conditions include market crashes or collapses and common external influences

Major League Baseball and Drugs: Fight the Problem or the Player?

The drug abuse issue is one of the most emotionally charged and important questions facing sports and society today

Version 3 of the retrieving effectively from memory model: extensions and limitations

Shiffrin and Steyvers (1997) presented a computational model of human memory they called Retrieving Effectively from Memory (REM). In their original report of the model, they described several REM variants. To date, the majority of papers using REM have employed the simplest version of the model, known as REM.1. Although it does not matter for most applications, REM.1 makes an important, simplifying assumption: namely, that item strengthening always accumulates in a single mnemonic trace. In other words, there is one trace for each study item, regardless of the time for which items were presented or the number of times items were repeated. In the case of spaced repetitions, this assumption of automatic, single-trace storage is untenable. Here, I use a version of REM Shiffrin and Steyvers termed REM.3. In REM.3, spaced repetitions are stored in one trace if subjects identify the repetition as previously studied, and in separate traces otherwise. I show that this model can account for two findings previously believed to be inconsistent with the REM framework: the spacing effect (Delaney, Verkoeijen, & Spirgel, 2010) and positive list-strength effects observed with spaced strengthening (Ratcliff, Clark, & Shiffrin, 1990, Experiment 5) and the strong-interference paradigm (Norman, 1999). I then test a novel prediction from REM.3 concerning the list-strength effect. Three experiments were unable to find support for this prediction. Instead, I present an explanation of the list-strength effect based on strategy disruption

REDD+, hype, hope and disappointment : The dynamics of expectations in conservation and development pilot projects

We explore the dynamics of expectations in international forest conservation and development programs, and the impacts and implications of (unfulfilled) expectations for actors involved. Early stages of new international conservation and development programs, often involving pilot projects designed to test intervention concepts at village level, are characterized by large amounts of resources and attention, along with high expectations of success. However, evidence shows that these early expectations are rarely fulfilled. Despite this repeated pattern and growing engagement with expectations in critical conservation and development literature, little is known about the dynamics of expectations in conservation and development pilot projects. We address this knowledge gap first by exploring concepts from the sociology of expectations. We then unpack expectations in a case study of REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania, using extensive qualitative data reflecting the perspectives and experiences of a wide range of actors involved. Our study finds that expectations play a performative role, mobilizing actors and resources, despite uncertainty identified among policy-makers and practitioners. We also find that once raised, expectations are dynamic and continually mediated by actors and social contexts, which conflicts with attempts to ‘manage’ them. We argue therefore that a trade-off exists between fully piloting new initiatives and raising expectations. We also argue that failure to address this trade-off has implications beyond pilot project objectives and timelines, which are experienced most acutely by village communities. We argue for more critical engagement with expectations and the embedding of accountability for expectations in conservation and development practice. Our findings also challenge the discourse of ‘needing’ to pilot, which prioritizes awareness, impact and innovation without fully considering the potential negative impact of unfulfilled expectations

Eliciting the dynamics of leading a sustainable event: Key informant responses

Within the event management literature relating to network development and festival sustainability there is a paucity of research that analyzes the perception of festival sustainability by festival leaders. After an initial review of the context of sustainability, network theory, and an identification of the changing set of competencies for effective leadership, an exploratory and explanatory investigation is made to elicit and identify the critical factors that key informant festival leaders associate with sustainable festivals. The main purpose of this study is to attain a greater depth of understanding of festival leaders' attitudes towards the dynamics of creating and directing sustainable festivals. Indepth interviews with five elite festival leaders helped to generate the elements of a repertory grid from which a "triading" method was used to elicit constructs. Of the constructs identified, the most significant relate to four areas: the event subject focus; the leadership; the funding; and the organizational culture. The research also revealed that festival leaders conceive sustainability not as an environmental concern, but as a matter of festival survival. Suggestions are then drawn as to the future role of the repertory grid method in identifying and managing stakeholder visions, and future lines of research investigation and application. © 2011 Cognizant Comm. Corp

Pulsar Searches with the SKA

The Square Kilometre Array will be an amazing instrument for pulsar astronomy. While the full SKA will be sensitive enough to detect all pulsars in the Galaxy visible from Earth, already with SKA1, pulsar searches will discover enough pulsars to increase the currently known population by a factor of four, no doubt including a range of amazing unknown sources. Real time processing is needed to deal with the 60 PB of pulsar search data collected per day, using a signal processing pipeline required to perform more than 10 POps. Here we present the suggested design of the pulsar search engine for the SKA and discuss challenges and solutions to the pulsar search venture.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure. To be published in Proceedings of IAU Symposium 337: Pulsar Astrophysics - The Next 50 Year

Persistent sex disparities in clinical outcomes with percutaneous coronary intervention: Insights from 6.6 million PCI precedures in the United States

Background Prior studies have reported inconsistencies in the baseline risk profile, comorbidity burden and their association with clinical outcomes in women compared to men. More importantly, there is limited data around the sex differences and how these have changed over time in contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) practice. Methods and results We used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample to identify all PCI procedures based on ICD-9 procedure codes in the United States between 2004–2014 in adult patients. Descriptive statistics were used to describe sex-based differences in baseline characteristics and comorbidity burden of patients. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to investigate the association between these differences and in-hospital mortality, complications, length of stay and total hospital charges. Among 6,601,526 patients, 66% were men and 33% were women. Women were more likely to be admitted with diagnosis of NSTEMI (non-ST elevation acute myocardial infarction), were on average 5 years older (median age 68 compared to 63) and had higher burden of comorbidity defined by Charlson score ≥3. Women also had higher in-hospital crude mortality (2.0% vs 1.4%) and any complications compared to men (11.1% vs 7.0%). These trends persisted in our adjusted analyses where women had a significant increase in the odds of in-hospital mortality men (OR 1.20 (95% CI 1.16,1.23) and major bleeding (OR 1.81 (95% CI 1.77,1.86). Conclusion In this national unselected contemporary PCI cohort, there are significant sex-based differences in presentation, baseline characteristics and comorbidity burden. These differences do not fully account for the higher in-hospital mortality and procedural complications observed in women