Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies

We investigate the connection between commodity price shocks and unemployment in advanced resource-rich small open economies from an empirical and theoretical perspective. Shocks to commodity prices are shown to influence labour market conditions primarily through the real exchange rate contrasting sharply with the transmission of technology shocks which are typically argued to affect the economy by changing labour productivity. The empirical impact of commodity price shocks is obtained from estimating a panel vector autoregression; a positive price shock is found to be expansionary for the components of GDP, causes the real exchange rate to appreciate, and improves labour market conditions. For every one percent increase in commodity prices, our estimates suggest a one basis point decline in the unemployment rate and at its peak a 0.3% increase in unfilled vacancies. We then match the impulse responses to a commodity price shock from a small open economy model with net commodity exports and search and matching frictions in the labour market to these empirical responses. As in the data, an increase in commodity prices raises consumption demand in the small open economy and induces a real appreciation. Facing higher relative prices for their goods, non-commodity producing firms post additional job vacancies, causing the number of matches between firms and workers to rise. As a result, unemployment falls, even if employment in the commodity-producing sector is negligible. For commodity price shocks, there is little difference between the standard Diamond (1982), Mortensen (1982), and Pissarides (1985) approach of modelling search and matching frictions and the alternating offer bargaining model suggested by Hall and Milgrom (2008)

Economic and Epidemiological Effects of Mandated and Spontaneous Social Distancing

Based on a standard epidemiological model, we derive and apply empirical tests of the hypothesis that contacts, as proxied by mobility data, have an effect on the spread of the coronavirus epidemic, as summarized by the reproduction rates, and on economic activity, as captured by subsequent initial claims to unemployment benefits. We show that changes in mobility through the first quarters of 2020, be it spontaneous or mandated, had significant effects on both the spread of the coronavirus and the economy. Strikingly, we find that spontaneous social distancing was no less costly than mandated social distancing. Our results suggest that the rebound in economic activity when stay-at-home orders were lifted was primarily driven by the improvement in epidemiological parameters. In other words, without the reduction in the reproduction rate of the coronavirus, we could have expected a doubling down on spontaneous social distancing

The Elusive Gains from Nationally-Oriented Monetary Policy

The consensus in the recent literature is that the gains from international monetary cooperation are negligible, and so are the costs of a breakdown in cooperation. However, when assessed conditionally on empirically-relevant dynamic developments of the economy, the welfare cost of moving away from regimes of explicit or implicit cooperation may rise to multiple times the cost of economic fluctuations. In economies with incomplete markets, the incentives to act non-cooperatively are driven by the emergence of global imbalances, i.e., large net-foreign-asset positions; and, in economies with complete markets, by divergent real wages

Design and operation of a prototype interaction point beam collision feedback system for the International Linear Collider

A high-resolution, intratrain position feedback system has been developed to achieve and maintain collisions at the proposed future electron-positron International Linear Collider (ILC). A prototype has been commissioned and tested with a beam in the extraction line of the Accelerator Test Facility at the High Energy Accelerator Research Organization in Japan. It consists of a stripline beam position monitor (BPM) with analogue signal-processing electronics, a custom digital board to perform the feedback calculation, and a stripline kicker driven by a high-current amplifier. The closed-loop feedback latency is 148 ns. For a three-bunch train with 154 ns bunch spacing, the feedback system has been used to stabilize the third bunch to 450 nm. The kicker response is linear, and the feedback performance is maintained, over a correction range of over $\pm$60 {\mu}m. The propagation of the correction has been confirmed by using an independent stripline BPM located downstream of the feedback system. The system has been demonstrated to meet the BPM resolution, beam kick, and latency requirements for the ILC

Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies

We show that a model of an advanced small open economy with exports in commodities and search and matching frictions in the labour market can match the impulse responses from a panel vector autoregression to an identified commodity price shock. Using a minimum distance strategy, we find that international financial risk sharing is low even for advanced small open economies. Moreover, a strong real exchange rate appreciation is key for an unexpected commodity price increase to induce a tightening of labour market conditions in the model that is in line with the empirical evidence. As in the case of technology shocks discussed by Shimer (2005), proper amplification of the commodity price shock requires a high value of the outside option for unemployed agents. However, vacancies and unemployment hardly respond whenever the real exchange rate channel is mute. These findings suggest the relevance of the open economy dimension for the transmission of demand-type shocks to the labour market more generally

QCD sum rule determination of the charm-quark mass

QCD sum rules involving mixed inverse moment integration kernels are used in order to determine the running charm-quark mass in the MS¯ scheme. Both the high and the low energy expansion of the vector current correlator are involved in this determination. The optimal integration kernel turns out to be of the form p(s)=1−(s0/s)2, where s0 is the onset of perturbative QCD. This kernel enhances the contribution of the well known narrow resonances, and reduces the impact of the data in the range s≃20−25GeV2. This feature leads to a substantial reduction in the sensitivity of the results to changes in s0, as well as to a much reduced impact of the experimental uncertainties in the higher resonance region. The value obtained for the charm-quark mass in the MS¯ scheme at a scale of 3 GeV is m¯c(3GeV)=987±9MeV, where the error includes all sources of uncertainties added in quadrature

B meson decay constants f(Bc), f(Bs) and f(B) from QCD sum rules

Finite energy QCD sum rules with Legendre polynomial integration kernels are used to determine the heavy meson decay constant f(Bc), and revisit f(B) and f(Bs). Results exhibit excellent stability in a wide range of values of the integration radius in the complex squared energy plane, and of the order of the Legendre polynomial. Results are f(Bc) = 528 +/- 19 MeV, f(B) = 186 +/- 14 MeV, and f(Bs) = 222 +/- 12 MeV

High Rates of Detection of Clade 2.3.4.4 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 Viruses in Wild Birds in the Pacific Northwest During the Winter of 2014–15

SUMMARY. In 2014, clade 2.3.4.4 H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses spread across the Republic of Korea and ultimately were reported in China, Japan, Russia, and Europe. Mortality associated with a reassortant HPAI H5N2 virus was detected in poultry farms in western Canada at the end of November. The same strain (with identical genetic structure) was then detected in free-living wild birds that had died prior to December 8, 2014, of unrelated causes in Whatcom County, Washington, U. S. A., in an area contiguous with the index Canadian location. A gyrfalcon (Falco rusticolus) that had hunted and fed on an American wigeon (Anas americana) on December 6, 2014, in the same area, and died 2 days later, tested positive for the Eurasian-origin HPAI H5N8. Subsequently, an active surveillance program using hunter-harvested waterfowl in Washington and Oregon detected 10 HPAI H5 viruses, of three different subtypes (four H5N2, three H5N8, and three H5N1) with four segments in common (HA, PB2, NP, and MA). In addition, a mortality-based passive surveillance program detected 18 HPAI (14 H5N2 and four H5N8) cases from Idaho, Kansas, Oregon, Minnesota, Montana, Washington, and Wisconsin. Comparatively, mortality-based passive surveillance appears to have detected these HPAI infections at a higher rate than active surveillance during the period following initial introduction into the United States. RESUMEN. Altas tasas de detección del virus de influenza aviar altamente patógeno H5 clado 2.3.4.4 en aves silvestres en la parte noroeste del Pacífico durante el invierno 2014-15. En 2014, los virus de influenza aviar altamente patógenos H5N8 clado 2.3.4.4 se diseminaron a través de la República de Corea y posteriormente, se reportaron en China, Japón, Rusia y Europa. Se detectó mortalidad asociada con un virus reacomodado altamente patógeno de influenza aviar H5N2 en granjas avícolas en el oeste de Canadá a finales de noviembre. Se detectó entonces la misma cepa (con estructura genética idéntica) en aves silvestres de vida libre que habían muerto antes del 8 de diciembre del 2014 por causas no relacionadas en el Condado de Whatcom, Washington, en los Estados Unidos, en una zona contigua con la ubicación del caso índice en Canadá. Un halcón gerifalte (Falco rusticolus) que había cazado y se había alimentado de un silbón americano (Anas americana) el 6 de diciembre del 2014, en la misma zona, y que murió dos días después, resultó positivo a la presencia del virus de alta patogenicidad de origen euroasiático H5N8. Posteriormente, un programa de vigilancia activa basado en el muestreo de aves acuáticas cazadas y recolectadas en Washington y Oregón detectó diez virus de influenza aviar altamente patógena H5 de tres subtipos diferentes (cuatro del subtipo H5N2, tres del subtipo H5N8 y tres subtipo H5N1) con cuatro segmentos en común (HA, PB2, NP, y MA ). Además, mediante un programa de vigilancia pasiva basado en el muestreo de aves muertas se detectaron 18 virus de influenza aviar de alta patogenicidad (catorce subtipo H5N2 y cuatro H5N8) en Idaho, Kansas, Oregón, Minnesota, Montana, Washington y Wisconsin. Comparativamente, la vigilancia pasiva basada en la mortalidad parece haber detectado estas infecciones del virus de influenza de alta patogenicidad en un porcentaje mayor en comparación con la vigilancia activa durante este período después de la introducción inicial en los Estados Unidos

Reliability of the functional auditory performance indicators to monitor progress in 5-year-old children with autism spectrum disorder

There is a need to dynamically monitor progress of functional auditory performance in young children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The Functional Auditory Performance Indicators (FAPI) is a monitoring tool for children with hearing loss but has not yet been described in children with ASD. The aim was to describe the overall performance of 5-year-old children with ASD on the FAPI and to determine the test–retest reliability and inter-rater reliability of the tool. The study was exploratory with a descriptive within-subjects design incorporating repeated measures. Twelve participants with ASD were purposely selected. Prerecorded sound and speech stimuli were used to elicit responses from participants in their familiar therapy rooms. For test–retest reliability, three data collection sessions per participant were conducted over a 2-week period. Video recordings were analysed by two independent raters, who were blind to the order of data sets. With an increase in complexity of auditory stimuli, a marked decrease in response was observed. The test–retest reliability was good, with a single difference in one category. Inter-rater reliability indicated a significant difference in two of the seven categories. These categories may be the most subjective in the tool. Despite subjectivity the FAPI was reliable to plot functional auditory difficulties in the sample group. Because the instrument relies on direct observation with limited demands to participate with the rater, it has potential for use in children with ASD. Further research is required to determine the tool’s performance using natural sound conditions to monitor children’s progress against themselves during intervention.http://www.sajce.co.zaam2017Speech-Language Pathology and AudiologyStatistic