The Visible Hand: Race and Online Market Outcomes

We examine the effect of race on market outcomes by selling iPods through local online classified advertisements throughout the United States in a year-long field experiment. Each ad features a photograph of the product being held by a dark- or light-skinned (“black” or “white”) hand. To provide context, we also consider a group of sellers against whom buyers might statistically discriminate for similar reasons: white sellers with wrist tattoos. Black sellers do worse than white sellers on a variety of market outcome measures: They receive 13% fewer responses and 17% fewer offers. These effects are strongest in the Northeast, and are similar in magnitude to those associated with the display of a wrist tattoo. Conditional on receiving at least one offer, black sellers also receive 2–4% lower offers, despite the selfselected—and presumably less biased—pool of buyers. In addition, buyers corresponding with black sellers exhibit lower trust: They are 17% less likely to include their name in e-mails, 44% less likely to accept delivery by mail, and 56% more likely to express concern about making a long-distance payment. We find evidence that black sellers suffer particularly poor outcomes in thin markets; it appears that discrimination may not “survive” in the presence of significant competition among buyers. Furthermore, black sellers do worst in the most racially isolated markets and markets with high property crime rates, consistent with channels through which we might expect statistical discrimination to operate.race, advertising

Cap the Rent with the Center for Leadership and Justice

This Community Action Gateway project team assisted the Center for Leadership and Justice with research related to their Cap the Rent campaign. They collected testimonies from Hartford residents, examined case studies in nearby states, and created an interactive maps of average rents and incomes in Connecticut towns

Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management

In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document that firms report more negative discretionary accruals when financial markets are less certain about their future prospects. Stock-price responses to earnings surprises are moderated when firm-level uncertainty is high, consistent with performance being attributed more to luck rather than skill and effort, which can create incentives to shift earnings toward lower-uncertainty periods. We show that the resulting opportunistic earnings management is concentrated in CEOs, firms, and periods where such incentives are likely to be strongest: (1) where CEO wealth is sensitive to change in the share price, (2) where announced earnings are particularly likely to be an important source of information about managerial ability and effort, and (3) before implementation of Sarbanes-Oxley made opportunistic earnings management more challenging. Our evidence highlights a novel channel through which uncertainty affects managerial decision making in the presence of agency conflicts

IEA Wind Task 32: Wind lidar identifying and mitigating barriers to the adoption of wind lidar

IEA Wind Task 32 exists to identify and mitigate barriers to the adoption of lidar for wind energy applications. It leverages ongoing international research and development activities in academia and industry to investigate site assessment, power performance testing, controls and loads, and complex flows. Since its initiation in 2011, Task 32 has been responsible for several recommended practices and expert reports that have contributed to the adoption of ground-based, nacelle-based, and floating lidar by the wind industry. Future challenges include the development of lidar uncertainty models, best practices for data management, and developing community-based tools for data analysis, planning of lidar measurements and lidar configuration. This paper describes the barriers that Task 32 identified to the deployment of wind lidar in each of these application areas, and the steps that have been taken to confirm or mitigate the barriers. Task 32 will continue to be a meeting point for the international wind lidar community until at least 2020 and welcomes old and new participants

Comparing Breast Cancer Multiparameter Tests in the OPTIMA Prelim Trial: No Test Is More Equal Than the Others

Background: Previous reports identifying discordance between multiparameter tests at the individual patient level have been largely attributed to methodological shortcomings of multiple in silico studies. Comparisons between tests, when performed using actual diagnostic assays, have been predicted to demonstrate high degrees of concordance. OPTIMA prelim compared predicted risk stratification and subtype classification of different multiparameter tests performed directly on the same population. Methods: Three hundred thirteen women with early breast cancer were randomized to standard (chemotherapy and endocrine therapy) or test-directed (chemotherapy if Oncotype DX recurrence score >25) treatment. Risk stratification was also determined with Prosigna (PAM50), MammaPrint, MammaTyper, NexCourse Breast (IHC4-AQUA), and conventional IHC4 (IHC4). Subtype classification was provided by Blueprint, MammaTyper, and Prosigna. Results: Oncotype DX predicted a higher proportion of tumors as low risk (82.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 77.8% to 86.4%) than were predicted low/intermediate risk using Prosigna (65.5%, 95% CI = 60.1% to 70.9%), IHC4 (72.0%, 95% CI = 66.5% to 77.5%), MammaPrint (61.4%, 95% CI = 55.9% to 66.9%), or NexCourse Breast (61.6%, 95% CI = 55.8% to 67.4%). Strikingly, the five tests showed only modest agreement when dichotomizing results between high vs low/intermediate risk. Only 119 (39.4%) tumors were classified uniformly as either low/intermediate risk or high risk, and 183 (60.6%) were assigned to different risk categories by different tests, although 94 (31.1%) showed agreement between four of five tests. All three subtype tests assigned 59.5% to 62.4% of tumors to luminal A subtype, but only 121 (40.1%) were classified as luminal A by all three tests and only 58 (19.2%) were uniformly assigned as nonluminal A. Discordant subtyping was observed in 123 (40.7%) tumors. Conclusions: Existing evidence on the comparative prognostic information provided by different tests suggests that current multiparameter tests provide broadly equivalent risk information for the population of women with estrogen receptor (ER)–positive breast cancers. However, for the individual patient, tests may provide differing risk categorization and subtype information

Strategies to Improve Recruitment to a De-escalation Trial:a Mixed-methods Study of the OPTIMA Prelim Trial in Early Breast Cancer

Aims: De-escalation trials are challenging and sometimes may fail due to poor recruitment. The OPTIMA Prelim randomised controlled trial (ISRCTN42400492) randomised patients with early stage breast cancer to chemotherapy versus ‘test-directed’ chemotherapy, with a possible outcome of no chemotherapy, which could confer less treatment relative to routine practice. Despite encountering challenges, OPTIMA Prelim reached its recruitment target ahead of schedule. This study reports the root causes of recruitment challenges and the strategies used to successfully overcome them. Materials and methods: A mixed-methods recruitment intervention (QuinteT Recruitment Intervention) was used to investigate the recruitment difficulties and feedback findings to inform interventions and optimise ongoing recruitment. Quantitative site-level recruitment data, audio-recorded recruitment appointments (n = 46), qualitative interviews (n = 22) with trialists/recruiting staff (oncologists/nurses) and patient-facing documentation were analysed using descriptive, thematic and conversation analyses. Findings were triangulated to inform a ‘plan of action’ to optimise recruitment. Results: Despite best intentions, oncologists' routine practices complicated recruitment. Discomfort about deviating from the usual practice of recommending chemotherapy according to tumour clinicopathological features meant that not all eligible patients were approached. Audio-recorded recruitment appointments revealed how routine practices undermined recruitment. A tendency to justify chemotherapy provision before presenting the randomised controlled trial and subtly indicating that chemotherapy would be more/less beneficial undermined equipoise and made it difficult for patients to engage with OPTIMA Prelim. To tackle these challenges, individual and group recruiter feedback focussed on communication issues and vignettes of eligible patients were discussed to address discomforts around approaching patients. ‘Tips’ documents concerning structuring discussions and conveying equipoise were disseminated across sites, together with revisions to the Patient Information Sheet. Conclusions: This is the first study illuminating the tension between oncologists' routine practices and recruitment to de-escalation trials. Although time and resources are required, these challenges can be addressed through specific feedback and training as the trial is underway

The growth and decline of fisheries communities: Explaining relative population growth at municipality level

In several countries, maintaining the population of fisheries dependent communities are of major importance in the fisheries governance system. However, most studies investigating the relationship between fisheries and communities have a qualitative focus on the impact of fisheries policies on the communities. We have access to data on population and key employment indicators of every Norwegian municipality in addition to fisheries catch, landings and employment. These data allow us to study the effect of fisheries on population growth in fisheries dependent municipalities relative to all other municipalities. The data are analyzed using a multi-level approach integrating micro- and macrodata. The results indicate that general trends have a stronger influence on population growth than fisheries activities, implying that measures for increased fisheries landings are poor tools to support population growth.publishedVersio

Non-B DB: a database of predicted non-B DNA-forming motifs in mammalian genomes

Although the capability of DNA to form a variety of non-canonical (non-B) structures has long been recognized, the overall significance of these alternate conformations in biology has only recently become accepted en masse. In order to provide access to genome-wide locations of these classes of predicted structures, we have developed non-B DB, a database integrating annotations and analysis of non-B DNA-forming sequence motifs. The database provides the most complete list of alternative DNA structure predictions available, including Z-DNA motifs, quadruplex-forming motifs, inverted repeats, mirror repeats and direct repeats and their associated subsets of cruciforms, triplex and slipped structures, respectively. The database also contains motifs predicted to form static DNA bends, short tandem repeats and homo(purine•pyrimidine) tracts that have been associated with disease. The database has been built using the latest releases of the human, chimp, dog, macaque and mouse genomes, so that the results can be compared directly with other data sources. In order to make the data interpretable in a genomic context, features such as genes, single-nucleotide polymorphisms and repetitive elements (SINE, LINE, etc.) have also been incorporated. The database is accessed through query pages that produce results with links to the UCSC browser and a GBrowse-based genomic viewer. It is freely accessible at http://nonb.abcc.ncifcrf.gov