Global Projections of Household Numbers Using Age Determined Ratios

A new method based upon age determined population ratios is described and used to estimate household population intensities (households per person). Using an additive and a bounded model household projections are given to 2050 for the world and to 2030 for seven fertility transition subgroups (cohorts) of the countries of the world. Based upon United Nations 2002 Revision data, from an estimated 1.56 billion households at 2000, household growth to 2030 is projected to be an additional 1.1 billion households, whether population increase is 1.3 billion persons under the United Nations low fertility variant or 2.7 billion persons under the high fertility variant. At that date over one third of all households are projected to be Chinese or Indian. By 2050 it is projected that there will be 3.3 billion households with a 95 per cent confidence interval on modelling error only of ± 0.5 billion. This compares with 3.2 billion in the Habitat: Global Report on Human Settlements 1996. The apparent similarity of total household growth under various scenarios conceals a wide range in the growth of household intensities across fertility transition cohorts. It is suggested that models, projections and error be reviewed biennially and that household and population projections be produced jointly.Household projections, world, age ratios, fertility

Concept design of a fast sail assisted feeder container ship

An environmentally sustainable fast sail-assisted feeder-container ship concept, with a maximum speed of 25 knots, has been developed for the 2020 South East Asian and Caribbean container markets. The use of low-carbon and zero-sulphur fuel (liquefied natural gas) and improvements in operational efficiency (cargo handling and scheduling) mean predicted Green house gas emissions should fall by 42% and 40% in the two selected operational regions. The adoption of a Multi-wing sail system reduces power requirement by up to 6% at the lower ship speed of 15 knots. The predicted daily cost savings are respectively 27% and 33% in South East Asian and the Caribbean regions.Two hull forms with a cargo capacity of 1270TEU utilising different propulsion combinations were initially developed to meet operational requirements. Analysis & tank testing of different hydrodynamic phenomena has enabled identification of efficiency gains for each design. The final propulsion chosen is a contra-rotating podded drive arrangement. Wind tunnel testing improved Multi-wing sail performance by investigating wing spacing, wing stagger and sail-container interactions. The associated lift coefficient was increased by 32%. Whilst savings in sail-assisted power requirement are lower than initially predicted an unexpected identified benefit was motion damping.The fast feeder-container ship is a proposed as a viable future method of container transhipment

Variable Stars in the Unusual, Metal-Rich Globular Cluster NGC 6388

We have undertaken a search for variable stars in the metal-rich globular cluster NGC 6388 using time-series BV photometry. Twenty-eight new variables were found in this survey, increasing the total number of variables found near NGC 6388 to ~57. A significant number of the variables are RR Lyrae (~14), most of which are probable cluster members. The periods of the fundamental mode RR Lyrae are shown to be unusually long compared to metal-rich field stars. The existence of these long period RRab stars suggests that the horizontal branch of NGC 6388 is unusually bright. This implies that the metallicity-luminosity relationship for RR Lyrae stars is not universal if the RR Lyrae in NGC 6388 are indeed metal-rich. We consider the alternative possibility that the stars in NGC 6388 may span a range in [Fe/H]. Four candidate Population II Cepheids were also found. If they are members of the cluster, NGC 6388 would be the most metal-rich globular cluster to contain Population II Cepheids. The mean V magnitude of the RR Lyrae is found to be 16.85+/-0.05 resulting in a distance of 9.0 to 10.3 kpc, for a range of assumed values of for RR Lyrae. We determine the reddening of the cluster to be E(B-V)=0.40+/-0.03 mag, with differential reddening across the face of the cluster. We discuss the difficulty in determining the Oosterhoff classification of NGC 6388 and NGC 6441 due to the unusual nature of their RR Lyrae, and address evolutionary constraints on a recent suggestion that they are of Oosterhoff type II.Comment: 35 pages, 16 figures, emulateapj5/apjfonts style. Astronomical Journal, in press. We recommend the interested reader to download instead the preprint with full-resolution figures, which can be found at http://www.noao.edu/noao/staff/pritzl/clusters.htm

A solvable model of a random spin-1/2 XY chain

The paper presents exact calculations of thermodynamic quantities for the spin-1/2 isotropic XY chain with random lorentzian intersite interaction and transverse field that depends linearly on the surrounding intersite interactions.Comment: 14 pages (Latex), 2 tables, 13 ps-figures included, (accepted for publication in Phys.Rev.B

Darkness visible: reflections on underground ecology

1 Soil science and ecology have developed independently, making it difficult for ecologists to contribute to urgent current debates on the destruction of the global soil resource and its key role in the global carbon cycle. Soils are believed to be exceptionally biodiverse parts of ecosystems, a view confirmed by recent data from the UK Soil Biodiversity Programme at Sourhope, Scotland, where high diversity was a characteristic of small organisms, but not of larger ones. Explaining this difference requires knowledge that we currently lack about the basic biology and biogeography of micro-organisms. 2 It seems inherently plausible that the high levels of biological diversity in soil play some part in determining the ability of soils to undertake ecosystem-level processes, such as carbon and mineral cycling. However, we lack conceptual models to address this issue, and debate about the role of biodiversity in ecosystem processes has centred around the concept of functional redundancy, and has consequently been largely semantic. More precise construction of our experimental questions is needed to advance understanding. 3 These issues are well illustrated by the fungi that form arbuscular mycorrhizas, the Glomeromycota. This ancient symbiosis of plants and fungi is responsible for phosphate uptake in most land plants, and the phylum is generally held to be species-poor and non-specific, with most members readily colonizing any plant species. Molecular techniques have shown both those assumptions to be unsafe, raising questions about what factors have promoted diversification in these fungi. One source of this genetic diversity may be functional diversity. 4 Specificity of the mycorrhizal interaction between plants and fungi would have important ecosystem consequences. One example would be in the control of invasiveness in introduced plant species: surprisingly, naturalized plant species in Britain are disproportionately from mycorrhizal families, suggesting that these fungi may play a role in assisting invasion. 5 What emerges from an attempt to relate biodiversity and ecosystem processes in soil is our extraordinary ignorance about the organisms involved. There are fundamental questions that are now answerable with new techniques and sufficient will, such as how biodiverse are natural soils? Do microbes have biogeography? Are there rare or even endangered microbes

Catalytic enantioselective [2,3]-rearrangements of allylic ammonium ylides : a mechanistic and computational study

The research leading to these results (T. H. W., J. E. T., G. C. L.-J. and A.D.S) has received funding from the ERC under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / E.R.C. grant agreements n° 279850 and n° 340163. A.D.S. thanks the Royal Society for a Wolfson Research Merit Award. P.H.-Y.C. is the Bert and Emelyn Christensen Professor and gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Stone Family of OSU. Financial support from the National Science Foundation (NSF) (CHE-1352663) is acknowledged. D.M.W. acknowledges the Bruce Graham and Johnson Fellowships of OSU. A.C.B. acknowledges the Johnson Fellowship of OSU. D.M.W., A.C.B., and R.C.J. and P.H.-Y.C. also acknowledge computing infrastructure in part provided by the NSF Phase2 CCI, Center for Sustainable Materials Chemistry (CHE1102637).A mechanistic study of the isothiourea-catalyzed enantioselective [2,3]-rearrangement of allylic ammonium ylides is described. Reaction kinetic analyses using 19F NMR and density functional theory computations have elucidated a reaction profile and allowed identification of the catalyst resting state and turnover-rate limiting step. A catalytically-relevant catalyst-substrate adduct has been observed, and its constitution elucidated unambiguously by 13C and 15N isotopic labeling. Isotopic entrainment has shown the observed catalyst-substrate adduct to be a genuine intermediate on the productive cycle towards catalysis. The influence of HOBt as an additive upon the reaction, catalyst resting state, and turnover-rate limiting step has been examined. Crossover experiments have probed the reversibility of each of the proposed steps of the catalytic cycle. Computations were also used to elucidate the origins of stereocontrol, with a 1,5-S•••O interaction and the catalyst stereodirecting group providing transition structure rigidification and enantioselectivity, while preference for cation-π interactions over C-H•••π is responsible for diastereoselectivity.Peer reviewe

Linear Estimation of Location and Scale Parameters Using Partial Maxima

Consider an i.i.d. sample X^*_1,X^*_2,...,X^*_n from a location-scale family, and assume that the only available observations consist of the partial maxima (or minima)sequence, X^*_{1:1},X^*_{2:2},...,X^*_{n:n}, where X^*_{j:j}=max{X^*_1,...,X^*_j}. This kind of truncation appears in several circumstances, including best performances in athletics events. In the case of partial maxima, the form of the BLUEs (best linear unbiased estimators) is quite similar to the form of the well-known Lloyd's (1952, Least-squares estimation of location and scale parameters using order statistics, Biometrika, vol. 39, pp. 88-95) BLUEs, based on (the sufficient sample of) order statistics, but, in contrast to the classical case, their consistency is no longer obvious. The present paper is mainly concerned with the scale parameter, showing that the variance of the partial maxima BLUE is at most of order O(1/log n), for a wide class of distributions.Comment: This article is devoted to the memory of my six-years-old, little daughter, Dionyssia, who leaved us on August 25, 2010, at Cephalonia isl. (26 pages, to appear in Metrika

Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees

The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that provide estimates of the number and duration of contacts among social groups. Moreover, their space and time resolution are limited, so that data is not explicit at the person-to-person level, and the dynamical aspect of the contacts is disregarded. Here, we want to assess the role of data-driven dynamic contact patterns among individuals, and in particular of their temporal aspects, in shaping the spread of a simulated epidemic in the population. We consider high resolution data of face-to-face interactions between the attendees of a conference, obtained from the deployment of an infrastructure based on Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) devices that assess mutual face-to-face proximity. The spread of epidemics along these interactions is simulated through an SEIR model, using both the dynamical network of contacts defined by the collected data, and two aggregated versions of such network, in order to assess the role of the data temporal aspects. We show that, on the timescales considered, an aggregated network taking into account the daily duration of contacts is a good approximation to the full resolution network, whereas a homogeneous representation which retains only the topology of the contact network fails in reproducing the size of the epidemic. These results have important implications in understanding the level of detail needed to correctly inform computational models for the study and management of real epidemics

An XMM-Newton observation of the galaxy group MKW 4

We present an X-ray study of the galaxy group or poor cluster MKW 4. Working with XMM data we examine the distribution and properties of the hot gas which makes up the group halo. The inner halo shows some signs of structure, with circular or elliptical beta models providing a poor fit to the surface brightness profile. This may be evidence of large scale motion in the inner halo, but we do not find evidence of sharp fronts or edges in the emission. The temperature of the halo declines in the core, with deprojected spectral fits showing a central temperature of ~1.3 keV compared to ~3 keV at 100 kpc. In the central ~30 kpc of the group multi-temperature spectral models are required to fit the data, but they indicate a lack of gas at low temperatures. Steady state cooling flow models provide poor fits to the inner regions of the group and the estimated cooling time of the gas is long except within the central dominant galaxy, NGC 4073. Abundance profiles show a sharp increase in the core of the group, with mean abundance rising by a factor of two in the centre of NGC 4073. Fitting individual elements shows the same trend, with high values of Fe, Si and S in the core. We estimate that ~50% of the Fe in the central 40 kpc was injected by SNIa, in agreement with previous ASCA studies. Using our best fitting surface brightness and temperature models, we calculate the mass, gas fraction, entropy and mass-to-light ratio of the group. At 100 kpc (~0.1 virial radii) the total mass and gas entropy of the system (~2x10^13 Msol and ~300 keV cm^2) are quite comparable to those of other systems of similar temperature, but the gas fraction is rather low (~1%). We conclude that MKW 4 is a fairly relaxed group, which has developed a strong central temperature gradient but not a large-scale cooling flow.Comment: 17 pages, 9 postscript figures, accepted for publication in MNRA