Risks of coastal storm surge and the effect of sea level rise in the Red River delta, Vietnam

This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam an area already known to be highly vulnerable to coastal risks. By combining a range of sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with the simulated storm surge level for the 100-year storm surge, we analyze permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones. As is well-established in the literature, sea level rise will increase the risk of storms by raising the base sea level from which surge is launched, but our method quantified the increase for disaster planning and vulnerability assessment purposes. Our analysis finds that sea level rise through 2050 could increase the effective frequency of the current 100-year storm surge, which is associated with a storm surge of roughly five meters, to once every 60 years. Approximately 10 percent of the Hanoi region's GDP is vulnerable to permanent inundation due to sea level rise, and more than 40 percent is vulnerable to periodic storm surge damage consistent with the current 100-year storm. We conclude that coastal adaptation measures, such as a planned retreat from the sea, and construction of a more substantial seawall and dike system, are needed to respond to these threats

Assessing the risk of cyclone-induced storm surge and sea level rise in Mozambique

This article considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the port cities of Maputo and Beira in Mozambique. By combining a range of sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with the potential maximum storm surge level for the current 100-year storm, we analyze permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones. In Beira, our analysis finds that a medium Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario consistent with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections through 2050 could increase the frequency of the current 100-year storm, which is associated with a storm surge of roughly 1.9 meters, to once every 40 years. The results in Maputo show similar and even more dramatic changes in the return period of the 100-year storm (associated with more 1.1 meter surges), with a reduction to a 1-in-20-year event under the same scenario. In 2050, approximately 0.4 percent of the Beira study area's GDP is vulnerable to permanent inundation due to sea level rise, and 0.8 percent is vulnerable to periodic storm surge damage. The figures for Maputo are a bit higher -0.7 percent of the Maputo study area's GDP is vulnerable to permanent inundation due to sea level rise, and 1.1 percent is vulnerable to periodic storm surge damage

Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: new economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy

Recent literature, the US Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment, and recent events, such as Hurricane Sandy, highlight the need to take better account of both storm surge and sea-level rise (SLR) in assessing coastal risks of climate change. This study combines three models—a tropical cyclone simulation model; a storm surge model; and a model for economic impact and adaptation—to estimate the joint effects of storm surge and SLR for the US coast through 2100. The model is tested using multiple SLR scenarios, including those incorporating estimates of dynamic ice-sheet melting, two global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy scenarios, and multiple general circulation model climate sensitivities. The results illustrate that a large area of coastal land and property is at risk of damage from storm surge today; that land area and economic value at risk expands over time as seas rise and as storms become more intense; that adaptation is a cost-effective response to this risk, but residual impacts remain after adaptation measures are in place; that incorporating site-specific episodic storm surge increases national damage estimates by a factor of two relative to SLR-only estimates, with greater impact on the East and Gulf coasts; and that mitigation of GHGs contributes to significant lessening of damages. For a mid-range climate-sensitivity scenario that incorporates dynamic ice sheet melting, the approach yields national estimates of the impacts of storm surge and SLR of $990 billion through 2100 (net of adaptation, cumulative undiscounted 2005$); GHG mitigation policy reduces the impacts of the mid-range climate-sensitivity estimates by $84 to$100 billion.United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Climate Change Division (Contract EP-D-09-054)United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Climate Change Division (Contract EP-BPA-12-H-0024

Bird species involved in west nile virus epidemiological cycle in southern Québec

Despite many studies on West Nile Virus (WNV) in the US, including the reservoir role of bird species and the summer shifts of the Culex mosquito, feeding from birds to mammals, there have been few equivalent studies in the neighboring regions of Canada where WNV is endemic. Here, a priority list of bird species likely involved in WNV transmission in the greater Montréal area is constructed by combining three sources of data: (i) from WNV surveillance in wild birds (2002–2015); (ii) blood meal analysis of Culex pipiens–restuans (CPR), the primary enzootic vectors of WNV in the region, collected from surveillance in 2008 and 2014; (iii) literature review on the sero-prevalence/host competence of resident birds. Each of these data sources yielded 18, 23 and 53 species, and overall, 67 different bird species were identified as potential WNV amplifiers/reservoirs. Of those identified from CPR blood meals, Common starlings, American robins, Song sparrows and House sparrows ranked the highest and blood meal analysis demonstrated a seasonal shift in feed preference from birds to mammals by CPR. Our study indicates that there are broad similarities in the ecology of WNV between our region and the northeastern US, although the relative importance of bird species varies somewhat between regions

Bullying and school disruption assessment: studies with Portuguese adolescent students

Problem Statement: The question of bullying and school disruptive behavior has emerged as a powerful issue in Portuguese educational context. The lack of evaluation instruments, with studied psychometric characteristics, has constituted a problem. Purpose of Study: School disruption and bullying assessment, in Portuguese adolescents, was the focus of this research. Research Methods: The psychometric qualities — internal consistency and the external validity — were analyzed in different scales. Findings: The analyses carried out confirm the scales as reliable and valid instruments. Conclusions: These instruments may be a useful avenue for teachers, psychologists and other education professionals

Weather-based forecasting of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in Canada.

Early warning systems to predict infectious disease outbreaks have been identified as a key adaptive response to climate change. Warming, climate variability and extreme weather events associated with climate change are expected to drive an increase in frequency and intensity of mosquito-borne disease (MBD) outbreaks globally. In Canada, this will mean an increased risk of endemic and emerging MBD outbreaks such as West Nile virus and other MBDs. The availability of timely information on the risk of impending MBD outbreaks has important public health implications, by allowing implementation of mosquito control measures and targeted communications regarding the need for increased personal protective measures-before an outbreak occurs. In Canada, both mechanistic and statistical weather-based models have been developed to predict West Nile virus outbreaks. These include models for different species of mosquitoes that transmit West Nile virus in different geographical areas of Canada. Although initial results have been promising, further validation and assessment of forecasting skill are needed before wide scale implementation. Weather-based forecasting for other emerging MBDs in Canada, such as Eastern equine encephalitis, may also be feasible

Researching outcomes from forensic services for people with intellectual or developmental disabilities: a systematic review, evidence synthesis and expert and patient/carer consultation

Background: Inpatient services for people with intellectual and other types of developmental disabilities (IDD) who also have forensic or risk issues are largely provided in secure hospitals. Although this is a health service sector with high levels of expenditure, there is limited empirical information on patient outcomes from such services. In order for a future substantive longitudinal outcomes study in forensic IDD services to be informed and feasible, more needs to be understood about the outcome domains that are of relevance and importance and how they should be measured. A preliminary series of studies were undertaken. Objectives: To synthesise evidence in relation to the outcome domains that have been researched in the existing literature from hospital and community forensic services for people with IDD, within the broad domains of service effectiveness, patient safety and patient experience. To identify a definitive framework of outcome domains (and associated measures and indicators) based both on this research evidence and on the views of patients, carers and clinicians. To synthesise the information gathered in order to inform design of future multisite longitudinal research in the sector. Design: Three linked studies were conducted. Stage 1 was a systematic review and evidence synthesis of outcome domains and measures as found within the forensic IDD literature. Stage 2 was a consultation exercise with 15 patients with IDD and six carers. Stage 3 was a modified Delphi consensus exercise with 15 clinicians and experts using the information gathered at stages 1 and 2. Results: At stage 1, 60 studies that researched a range of outcomes in forensic IDD services were identified from the literature. This resulted in the construction of an initial framework of outcome domains. The consultation with patients and carers at stage 2 added to these framework domains that related particularly to carer experience and the level of support post discharge in the community. The Delphi process at stage 3 confirmed the validity of the resulting framework for clinician. This survey also identified the outcome measures preferred by clinicians and those that are currently utilised in services. Thus, indicators of appropriate measures in some important domains were identified, although there was a paucity of measures in other domains. Conclusions: Together, these three linked studies led to the development of an evidence-based framework of key outcome domains and subdomains. A provisional list of associated measures and indicators was developed, although with the paucity of measures in some domains development of specific indicators may be required. With further refinement this could eventually be utilised by services and commissioners for comparative purposes, and in future empirical research on outcomes in forensic IDD services. An outline research proposal closely linked to recent policy initiatives was proposed. Limitations of the study include the relatively small number of carers and patients and range of experts consulted. Future work: This would comprise a national longitudinal study tracking IDD in patients through hospitalisation and discharge. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015016941. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme

West Nile Virus Outbreak in North American Owls, Ontario, 2002

Susceptibility of North American owls to WNV is associated with native breeding range