Estimating uncertainty in ecosystem budget calculations

© The Authors, 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License. The definitive version was published in Ecosystems 13 (2010): 239-248, doi:10.1007/s10021-010-9315-8.Ecosystem nutrient budgets often report values for pools and fluxes without any indication of uncertainty, which makes it difficult to evaluate the significance of findings or make comparisons across systems. We present an example, implemented in Excel, of a Monte Carlo approach to estimating error in calculating the N content of vegetation at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. The total N content of trees was estimated at 847 kg ha−1 with an uncertainty of 8%, expressed as the standard deviation divided by the mean (the coefficient of variation). The individual sources of uncertainty were as follows: uncertainty in allometric equations (5%), uncertainty in tissue N concentrations (3%), uncertainty due to plot variability (6%, based on a sample of 15 plots of 0.05 ha), and uncertainty due to tree diameter measurement error (0.02%). In addition to allowing estimation of uncertainty in budget estimates, this approach can be used to assess which measurements should be improved to reduce uncertainty in the calculated values. This exercise was possible because the uncertainty in the parameters and equations that we used was made available by previous researchers. It is important to provide the error statistics with regression results if they are to be used in later calculations; archiving the data makes resampling analyses possible for future researchers. When conducted using a Monte Carlo framework, the analysis of uncertainty in complex calculations does not have to be difficult and should be standard practice when constructing ecosystem budgets

Identifying future research directions for biodiversity, ecosystem services and sustainability: perspectives from early-career researchers

We aimed to identify priority research questions in the field of biodiversity, ecosystem services and sustainability (BESS), based on a workshop held during the NRG BESS Conference for Early Career Researchers on BESS, and to compare these to existing horizon scanning exercises. This work highlights the need for improved data availability through collaboration and knowledge exchange, which, in turn, can support the integrated valuation and sustainable management of ecosystems in response to global change. In addition, clear connectivity among different research themes in this field further emphasizes the need to consider a wider range of topics simultaneously to ensure the sustainable management of ecosystems for human wellbeing. In contrast to other horizon scanning exercises, our focus was more interdisciplinary and more concerned with the limits of sustainability and dynamic relationships between social and ecological systems. The identified questions could provide a framework for researchers, policy makers, funding agencies and the private sector to advance knowledge in biodiversity and ES research and to develop and implement policies to enable sustainable future development

Impacts of an Invasive Snail (Tarebia granifera) on Nutrient Cycling in Tropical Streams: The Role of Riparian Deforestation in Trinidad, West Indies

Non-native species and habitat degradation are two major catalysts of environmental change and often occur simultaneously. In freshwater systems, degradation of adjacent terrestrial vegetation may facilitate introduced species by altering resource availability. Here we examine how the presence of intact riparian cover influences the impact of an invasive herbivorous snail, Tarebia granifera, on nitrogen (N) cycling in aquatic systems on the island of Trinidad. We quantified snail biomass, growth, and N excretion in locations where riparian vegetation was present or removed to determine how snail demographics and excretion were related to the condition of the riparian zone. In three Neotropical streams, we measured snail biomass and N excretion in open and closed canopy habitats to generate estimates of mass- and area-specific N excretion rates. Snail biomass was 2 to 8 times greater and areal N excretion rates ranged from 3 to 9 times greater in open canopy habitats. Snails foraging in open canopy habitat also had access to more abundant food resources and exhibited greater growth and mass-specific N excretion rates. Estimates of ecosystem N demand indicated that snail N excretion in fully closed, partially closed, and open canopy habitats supplied 2%, 11%, and 16% of integrated ecosystem N demand, respectively. We conclude that human-mediated riparian canopy loss can generate hotspots of snail biomass, growth, and N excretion along tropical stream networks, altering the impacts of an invasive snail on the biogeochemical cycling of N

Discharge–calcium concentration relationships in streams of the Amazon and Cerrado of Brazil : soil or land use controlled

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Biogeochemistry 105 (2011): 19-35, doi:10.1007/s10533-011-9574-2.Stream discharge-concentration relationships are indicators of terrestrial ecosystem function. Throughout the Amazon and Cerrado regions of Brazil rapid changes in land use and land cover may be altering these hydrochemical relationships. The current analysis focuses on factors controlling the discharge-calcium (Ca) concentration relationship since previous research in these regions has demonstrated both positive and negative slopes in linear log10discharge-log10Ca concentration regressions. The objective of the current study was to evaluate factors controlling stream discharge-Ca concentration relationships including year, season, stream order, vegetation cover, land use, and soil classification. It was hypothesized that land use and soil class are the most critical attributes controlling discharge-Ca concentration relationships. A multilevel, linear regression approach was utilized with data from 28 streams throughout Brazil. These streams come from three distinct regions and varied broadly in watershed size (106 ha) and discharge (10-5.7 to 103.2 m3 sec-1). Linear regressions of log10Ca versus log10discharge in 13 streams have a preponderance of negative slopes with only two streams having significant positive slopes. An ANOVA decomposition suggests the effect of discharge on Ca concentration is large but variable. Vegetation cover, which incorporates aspects of land use, explains the largest proportion of the variance in the effect of discharge on Ca followed by season and year. In contrast, stream order, land use, and soil class explain most of the variation in stream Ca concentration. In the current data set, soil class, which is related to lithology, has an important effect on Ca concentration but land use, likely through its effect on runoff concentration and hydrology, has a greater effect on discharge-concentration relationships.This research was supported by grant #’s NCC5-686 and NNG06GE88A of NASA’s Terrestrial Ecology Program as part of the Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA-ECO) project

Assessing the Potential Impacts to Riparian Ecosystems Resulting from Hemlock Mortality in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) is spreading across forests in eastern North America, causing mortality of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis [L.] Carr.) and Carolina hemlock (Tsuga caroliniana Engelm.). The loss of hemlock from riparian forests in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) may result in significant physical, chemical, and biological alterations to stream environments. To assess the influence of riparian hemlock stands on stream conditions and estimate possible impacts from hemlock loss in GSMNP, we paired hardwood- and hemlock-dominated streams to examine differences in water temperature, nitrate concentrations, pH, discharge, and available photosynthetic light. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify stream pairs that were similar in topography, geology, land use, and disturbance history in order to isolate forest type as a variable. Differences between hemlock- and hardwood-dominated streams could not be explained by dominant forest type alone as forest type yields no consistent signal on measured conditions of headwater streams in GSMNP. The variability in the results indicate that other landscape variables, such as the influence of understory Rhododendron species, may exert more control on stream conditions than canopy composition. The results of this study suggest that the replacement of hemlock overstory with hardwood species will have minimal impact on long-term stream conditions, however disturbance during the transition is likely to have significant impacts. Management of riparian forests undergoing hemlock decline should, therefore, focus on facilitating a faster transition to hardwood-dominated stands to minimize long-term effects on water quality

Toward an integration of landscape and food web ecology: The dynamics of spatially subsidized food webs

We focus on the implications of movement, landscape variables, and spatial heterogeneity for food web dynamics. Movements of nutrients, detritus, prey, and consumers among habitats are ubiquitous in diverse biomes and can strongly influence population, consumer-resource, food web, and community dynamics. Nutrient and detrital subsidies usually increase primary and secondary productivity, both directly and indirectly. Prey subsidies, by movement of either prey or predators, usually enhance predator abundance beyond what local resources can support. Top-down effects occur when spatially subsidized consumers affect local resources by suppressing key resources and occasionally by initiating trophic cascades. Effects on community dynamics vary with the relative amount of input, the trophic roles of the mobile and recipient entities, and the local food web structure. Landscape variables such as the perimeter/area ratio of the focal habitat, permeability of habitat boundaries, and relative productivity of trophically connected habitats affect the degree and importance of spatial subsidization

The Contribution of Occult Precipitation to Nutrient Deposition on the West Coast of South Africa

The Strandveld mediterranean-ecosystem of the west coast of South Africa supports floristically diverse vegetation growing on mostly nutrient-poor aeolian sands and extending from the Atlantic Ocean tens of kilometers inland. The cold Benguela current upwelling interacts with warm onshore southerly winds in summer causing coastal fogs in this region. We hypothesized that fog and other forms of occult precipitation contribute moisture and nutrients to the vegetation. We measured occult precipitation over one year along a transect running inland in the direction of the prevailing wind and compared the nutrient concentrations with those in rainwater. Occult deposition rates of P, N, K, Mg, Ca, Na, Al and Fe all decreased with distance from the ocean. Furthermore, ratios of cations to Na were similar to those of seawater, suggesting a marine origin for these. In contrast, N and P ratios in occult precipitation were higher than in seawater. We speculate that this is due to marine foam contributing to occult precipitation. Nutrient loss in leaf litter from dominant shrub species was measured to indicate nutrient demand. We estimated that occult precipitation could meet the demand of the dominant shrubby species for annual N, P, K and Ca. Of these species, those with small leaves intercepted more moisture and nutrients than those with larger leaves and could take up foliar deposits of glycine, NO3-, NH4 + and Li (as tracer for K) through leaf surfaces. We conclude that occult deposition together with rainfall deposition are potentially important nutrient and moisture sources for the Strandveld vegetation that contribute to this vegetation being floristically distinct from neighbouring nutrient-poor Fynbos vegetation

The importance of sedimenting organic matter, relative to oxygen and temperature, in structuring lake profundal macroinvertebrate assemblages

We quantified the role of a main food resource, sedimenting organic matter (SOM), relative to oxygen (DO) and temperature (TEMP) in structuring profundal macroinvertebrate assemblages in boreal lakes. SOM from 26 basins of 11 Finnish lakes was analysed for quantity (sedimentation rates), quality (C:N:P stoichiometry) and origin (carbon stable isotopes, d13C). Hypolimnetic oxygen and temperature were measured from each site during summer stratification. Partial canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and partial regression analyses were used to quantify contributions of SOM, DO and TEMP to community composition and three macroinvertebrate metrics. The results suggested a major contribution of SOM in regulating the community composition and total biomass. Oxygen best explained the Shannon diversity, whereas TEMP had largest contribution to the variation of Benthic Quality Index. Community composition was most strongly related to d13C of SOM. Based on additional d13C and stoichiometric analyses of chironomid taxa, marked differences were apparent in their utilization of SOM and body stoichiometry; taxa characteristic of oligotrophic conditions exhibited higher C:N ratios and lower C:P and N:P ratios compared to the species typical of eutrophic lakes. The results highlight the role of SOM in regulating benthic communities and the distributions of individual species, particularly in oligotrophic systems