5 research outputs found
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Targeting the Most Harmful Offenders for an English Police Agency: Continuity and Change of Membership in the “Felonious Few”
Funder: University of CambridgeAbstract
Research Question
How concentrated is the total harm of offences with detected offenders (identified suspects) among the complete list of all detected offenders in a given year in an English police agency, and how consistent is the list of highest-harm “felonious few” offenders from one year to the next?
Data
Characteristics of 327,566 crimes and 39,545 unique offenders as recorded by Northamptonshire Police in 7Â years from 2010 to 2016 provide the basis for this analysis.
Methods
Crime and offender records were matched to harm weightings derived from the Cambridge Crime Harm Index (Sherman et al. 2016a; Sherman et al., Policing, 10(3), 171–183, 2016b). Descriptive statistics summarize a concentration of harm identifying the felonious few, changes over time in membership of the “few”, offender typologies and tests for escalation of severity, frequency and intermittency across repeated offences.
Findings
Crime harm is much more concentrated among offenders than crime volume: 80% of crime harm that is identified to an offender is linked to a felonious few of just 7% of all detected offenders. While chronic repeat offenders are the majority contributors to harm totals of this group, those with the most general range of offence types contribute the most harm. Individual members of the felonious few rarely maintain that position year on year; over 95% of each year’s list is composed of individuals not present in previous years. Within individual crime histories, we observe a pattern of de-escalation in crime harm per offence over time. “One-time” offenders, those with just one crime record, typically made up a third of the felonious few in both number and harm contribution.
Conclusions
These findings demonstrate the potential to target a small number of repeat offenders for harm reduction strategies using a metric of total crime severity, not just volume, despite a substantial portion of crime harm caused by one-time offenders that may be largely unpredictable.
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Demographic and genetic connectivity: the role and consequences of reproduction, dispersal and recruitment in seagrasses
Accurate estimation of connectivity among populations is fundamental for determining the drivers of population resilience, genetic diversity, adaptation and speciation. However the separation and quantification of contemporary versus historical connectivity remains a major challenge. This review focuses on marine angiosperms, seagrasses, that are fundamental to the health and productivity of temperate and tropical coastal marine environments globally. Our objective is to understand better the role of sexual reproduction and recruitment in influencing demographic and genetic connectivity among seagrass populations through an integrated multidisciplinary assessment of our present ecological, genetic, and demographic understanding, with hydrodynamic modelling of transport. We investigate (i) the demographic consequences of sexual reproduction, dispersal and recruitment in seagrasses, (ii) contemporary transport of seagrass pollen, fruits and seed, and vegetative fragments with a focus on hydrodynamic and particle transportmodels, and (iii) contemporary genetic connectivity among seagrass meadows as inferred through the application of genetic markers. New approaches are reviewed, followed by a summary outlining future directions for research: integrating seascape genetic approaches; incorporating hydrodynamic modelling for dispersal of pollen, seeds and vegetative fragments; integrating studies across broader geographic ranges; and incorporating non-equilibrium modelling. These approaches will lead to a more integrated understanding of the role of contemporary dispersal and recruitment in the persistence and evolution of seagrasses