Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991–2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis

Objective: To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). Study design: Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis. Methods: We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively. Results: The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in alcohol-related mortality during the 1990s. Conclusions: Future policy should ensure that alcohol affordability and availability, as well as socio-economic inequality, are reduced, in order to maintain downward trends in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland

Evidence synthesis for constructing directed acyclic graphs (ESC-DAGs): a novel and systematic method for building directed acyclic graphs

Background: Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are popular tools for identifying appropriate adjustment strategies for epidemiological analysis. However, a lack of direction on how to build them is problematic. As a solution, we propose using a combination of evidence synthesis strategies and causal inference principles to integrate the DAG-building exercise within the review stages of research projects. We demonstrate this idea by introducing a novel protocol: ‘Evidence Synthesis for Constructing Directed Acyclic Graphs’ (ESC-DAGs)’.\ud Methods: ESC-DAGs operates on empirical studies identified by a literature search, ideally a novel systematic review or review of systematic reviews. It involves three key stages: (i) the conclusions of each study are ‘mapped’ into a DAG; (ii) the causal structures in these DAGs are systematically assessed using several causal inference principles and are corrected accordingly; (iii) the resulting DAGs are then synthesised into one or more ‘integrated DAGs’. This demonstration article didactically applies ESC-DAGs to the literature on parental influences on offspring alcohol use during adolescence. Conclusions: ESC-DAGs is a practical, systematic and transparent approach for developing DAGs from background knowledge. These DAGs can then direct primary data analysis and DAG-based sensitivity analysis. ESC-DAGs has a modular design to allow researchers who are experienced DAG users to both use and improve upon the approach. It is also accessible to researchers with limited experience of DAGs or evidence synthesis

Mortality differences and inequalities within and between 'protected characteristics' groups, in a Scottish Cohort 1991-2009

Background: Little is known about the interaction between socio-economic status and 'protected characteristics' in Scotland. This study aimed to examine whether differences in mortality were moderated by interactions with social class or deprivation. The practical value was to pinpoint population groups for priority action on health inequality reduction and health improvement rather than a sole focus on the most deprived socioeconomic groups. Methods: We used data from the Scottish Longitudinal Study which captures a 5.3 % sample of Scotland and links the censuses of 1991, 2001 and 2011. Hazard ratios for mortality were estimated for those protected characteristics with sufficient deaths using Cox proportional hazards models and through the calculation of European age-standardised mortality rates. Inequality was measured by calculating the Relative Index of Inequality (RII). Results: The Asian population had a polarised distribution across deprivation deciles and was more likely to be in social class I and II. Those reporting disablement were more likely to live in deprived areas, as were those raised Roman Catholic, whilst those raised as Church of Scotland or as 'other Christian' were less likely to. Those aged 35-54 years were the least likely to live in deprived areas and were most likely to be in social class I and II. Males had higher mortality than females, and disabled people had higher mortality than non-disabled people, across all deprivation deciles and social classes. Asian males and females had generally lower mortality hazards than majority ethnic ('White') males and females although the estimates for Asian males and females were imprecise in some social classes and deprivation deciles. Males and females who reported their raised religion as Roman Catholic or reported 'No religion' had generally higher mortality than other groups, although the estimates for 'Other religion' and 'Other Christian' were less precise. Using both the area deprivation and social class distributions for the whole population, relative mortality inequalities were usually greater amongst those who did not report being disabled, Asians and females aged 35-44 years, males by age, and people aged <75 years. The RIIs for the raised religious groups were generally similar or too imprecise to comment on differences. Conclusions: Mortality in Scotland is higher in the majority population, disabled people, males, those reporting being raised as Roman Catholics or with 'no religion' and lower in Asians, females and other religious groups. Relative inequalities in mortality were lower in disabled than nondisabled people, the majority population, females, and greatest in young adults. From the perspective of intersectionality theory, our results clearly demonstrate the importance of representing multiple identities in research on health inequalities.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A cardiovascular disease policy model:part 2-preparing for economic evaluation and to assess health inequalities

Objectives This is the second of two papers introducing a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model. The first paper described the structure and statistical underpinning of the state transition model, demonstrating how life expectancy estimates are generated for individuals defined by ASSIGN risk factors. This second paper describes how the model is prepared to undertake economic evaluation. Design To generate quality adjusted life expectancy (QALE), the Scottish Health Survey was used to estimate background morbidity (health utilities) and the impact of CVD events (utility decrements). The SF-6D algorithm generated utilities and decrements were modelled using ordinary least squares (OLS). To generate lifetime hospital costs the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) was linked to the Scottish morbidity and death records (SMR) to cost each Continuous Inpatient Stay (CIS). OLS and restricted cubic splines estimated annual costs before and after each of the first four events. A Kaplan Meier Sample Average (KMSA) estimator was then used to weight expected health related quality of life and costs by the probability of survival. Results The policy model predicts the change in QALE and lifetime hospital costs as a result of an intervention(s) modifying risk factors. Cost effectiveness analysis and a full uncertainty analysis can be undertaken, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Notably, the impacts according to socioeconomic deprivation status can be made. Conclusions The policy model can conduct cost effectiveness analysis and decision analysis to inform approaches to primary prevention, including individually targeted and population interventions, and to assess impacts on health inequalities. </p

Revision rates after primary hip and knee replacement in England between 2003 and 2006

&lt;b&gt;Background&lt;/b&gt;: Hip and knee replacement are some of the most frequently performed surgical procedures in the world. Resurfacing of the hip and unicondylar knee replacement are increasingly being used. There is relatively little evidence on their performance. To study performance of joint replacement in England, we investigated revision rates in the first 3 y after hip or knee replacement according to prosthesis type. &lt;b&gt;Methods and Findings&lt;/b&gt;: We linked records of the National Joint Registry for England and Wales and the Hospital Episode Statistics for patients with a primary hip or knee replacement in the National Health Service in England between April 2003 and September 2006. Hospital Episode Statistics records of succeeding admissions were used to identify revisions for any reason. 76,576 patients with a primary hip replacement and 80,697 with a primary knee replacement were included (51% of all primary hip and knee replacements done in the English National Health Service). In hip patients, 3-y revision rates were 0.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.8%–1.1%) with cemented, 2.0% (1.7%–2.3%) with cementless, 1.5% (1.1%–2.0% CI) with “hybrid” prostheses, and 2.6% (2.1%–3.1%) with hip resurfacing (p &lt; 0.0001). Revision rates after hip resurfacing were increased especially in women. In knee patients, 3-y revision rates were 1.4% (1.2%–1.5% CI) with cemented, 1.5% (1.1%–2.1% CI) with cementless, and 2.8% (1.8%–4.5% CI) with unicondylar prostheses (p &lt; 0.0001). Revision rates after knee replacement strongly decreased with age. &lt;b&gt;Interpretation&lt;/b&gt;: Overall, about one in 75 patients needed a revision of their prosthesis within 3 y. On the basis of our data, consideration should be given to using hip resurfacing only in male patients and unicondylar knee replacement only in elderly patients

Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes and Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure: A Nested Case–Control Study From the U.K. General Practice Research Database

OBJECTIVE - Diabetes and heart failure commonly coexist, and prior studies have suggested better outcomes with met formin than other antidiabetic agents. We designed this study to determine whether this association reflects a beneficial effect of metformin or a harmful effect of other agents. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - We performed a case-control study nested within the U.K. General Practice Research Database cohort in which diagnoses were assigned by each patient's primary care physician. Case subjects were patients 35 years or older, newly diagnosed with both heart failure and diabetes after January 1988, and who died prior to October 2007. Control subjects were matched to case subjects based on age, sex, clinic site, calendar year, and duration of follow-up. Analyses were adjusted for comorbidities, A1C, renal function, and BMI. RESULTS - The duration of concurrent diabetes and heart failure was 2.8 years (SD 2.6) in our 1,633 case subjects and 1,633 control subjects (mean age 78 years, 53% male). Compared with patients who were not exposed to antidiabetic drugs, the current use of metformin monotherapy (adjusted odds ratio 0.65 [0.48-0.87]) or metformin with or without other agents (0.72 [0.59-0.90]) was associated with lower mortality; however, use of other antidiabetic drugs or insulin was not associated with all-cause mortality. Conversely, the use of ACE inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (0.55 [0.45-0.68]) and beta-blockers (0.76 [0.61-0.95]) were associated with reduced mortality. CONCLUSIONS - Our results confirm the benefits of trial-proven anti-failure therapies in patients with diabetes and support the use of metformin-based strategies to lower glucose

Making better use of natural experimental evaluation in population health.

This is the final version. Available from BMJ Publishing via the DOI in this record. Rather than arguing about the suitability of natural experimental methods to inform decisions we need to focus on refining their scope and design, say Peter Craig and colleaguesWellcome TrustMedical Research CouncilUKRIScottish Government Chief Scientist OfficeNHS Research ScotlandUK Prevention Research Partnershi

A pragmatic cluster randomized trial evaluating the impact of a community pharmacy intervention on statin adherence: rationale and design of the Community Pharmacy Assisting in Total Cardiovascular Health (CPATCH) study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Traditional randomized controlled trials are considered the gold standard for evaluating the efficacy of a treatment. However, in adherence research, limitations to this study design exist, especially when evaluating real-world applicability of an intervention. Although adherence interventions by community pharmacists have been tested, problems with internal and external validity have limited the usefulness of these studies, and further well-designed and well-conducted research is needed. We aimed to determine the real-world effectiveness of a community pharmacy adherence intervention using a robust study design. This novel design integrates cluster randomization and an outcome evaluation of medication adherence using a population-based administrative data source in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Community pharmacies from across the province of Saskatchewan, Canada were randomized to deliver an adherence intervention to their patients or usual care. Intervention pharmacies were trained to employ a practical adherence strategy targeted at new users of statin medications. While randomization and implementation of the intervention occurred at the community pharmacy level, the outcome analysis will occur at the level of the individual subjects. The primary outcome is the mean statin adherence among all eligible new users of statin medications. Secondary outcomes include the proportion of new statin users who exhibit adherence ≥80%, and persistence with statin use.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This novel study design was developed to combine the rigor of a randomized trial with a pragmatic approach to implementing and capturing the results in a real-world fashion. We believe this approach can serve as an example for future study designs evaluating practice-based adherence interventions.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov no. NCT00971412.</p