Estimating the rate of intersubtype recombination in early HIV-1 group M strains

West Central Africa has been implicated as the epicenter of the HIV-1 epidemic, and almost all group M subtypes can be found there. Previous analysis of early HIV-1 group M sequences from Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, formerly Zaire, revealed that isolates from a number of individuals fall in different positions in phylogenetic trees constructed from sequences from opposite ends of the genome as a result of recombination between viruses of different subtypes. Here, we use discrete ancestral trait mapping to develop a procedure for quantifying HIV-1 group M intersubtype recombination across phylogenies, using individuals' gag (p17) and env (gp41) subtypes. The method was applied to previously described HIV-1 group M sequences from samples obtained in Kinshasa early in the global radiation of HIV. Nine different p17 and gp41 intersubtype recombinant combinations were present in the data set. The mean number of excess ancestral subtype transitions (NEST) required to map individuals' p17 subtypes onto the gp14 phylogeny samples, compared to the number required to map them onto the p17 phylogenies, and vice versa, indicated that excess subtype transitions occurred at a rate of approximately 7 × 10(−3) to 8 × 10(−3) per lineage per year as a result of intersubtype recombination. Our results imply that intersubtype recombination may have occurred in approximately 20% of lineages evolving over a period of 30 years and confirm intersubtype recombination as a substantial force in generating HIV-1 group M diversity

Resource use data by patient report or hospital records: Do they agree?

Background: Economic evaluations alongside clinical trials are becoming increasingly common. Cost data are often collected through the use of postal questionnaires; however, the accuracy of this method is uncertain. We compared postal questionnaires with hospital records for collecting data on physiotherapy service use. Methods: As part of a randomised trial of orthopaedic medicine compared with orthopaedic surgery we collected physiotherapy use data on a group of patients from retrospective postal questionnaires and from hospital records. Results: 315 patients were referred for physiotherapy. Hospital data on attendances was available for 30% (n = 96), compared with 48% (n = 150) of patients completing questionnaire data (95% Cl for difference = 10% to 24%); 19% (n = 59) had data available from both sources. The two methods produced an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.54 (95% Cl 0.31 to 0.70). However, the two methods produced significantly different estimates of resource use with patient self report recalling a mean of 1.3 extra visits (95% Cl 0.4 to 2.2) compared with hospital records. Conclusions: Using questionnaires in this study produced data on a greater number of patients compared with examination of hospital records. However, the two data sources did differ in the quantity of physiotherapy used and this should be taken into account in any analysi

Transmission dynamics of Avian Influenza A virus

Influenza A virus (AIV) has an extremely high rate of mutation. Frequent exchanges of gene segments between different AIV (reassortment) have been responsible for major pandemics in recent human history. The presence of a wild bird reservoir maintains the threat of incursion of AIV into domestic birds, humans and other animals. In this thesis, I addressed unanswered questions of how diverse AIV subtypes (classified according to antigenicity of the two surface proteins, haemagglutinin and neuraminidase) evolve and interact among different bird populations in different parts of the world, using Bayesian phylogenetic methods with large datasets of full genome sequences. Firstly, I explored the reassortment patterns of AIV internal segments among different subtypes by quantifying evolutionary parameters including reassortment rate, evolutionary rate and selective constraint in time-resolved Bayesian tree phylogenies. A major conclusion was that reassortment rate is negatively associated with selective constraint and that infection of wild rather than domestic birds was associated with a higher reassortment rate. Secondly, I described the spatial transmission pattern of AIV in China. Clustering of related viruses in particular geographic areas and economic zones was identified from the viral phylogeographic diffusion networks. The results indicated that Central China and the Pearl River Delta are two main sources of viral out flow; while the East Coast, especially the Yangtze River delta, is the major recipient area. Simultaneously, by applying a general linear model, the predictors that have the strongest impact on viral spatial diffusion were identified, including economic (agricultural) activity, climate, and ecology. Thirdly, I determined the genetic and phylogeographic origin of a recent H7N3 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak in Mexico. Location, subtype, avian host species and pathogenicity were modelled as discrete traits and jointly analysed using all eight viral gene segments. The results indicated that the outbreak AIV is a novel reassortant carried by wild waterfowl from different migration flyways in North America during the time period studied. Importantly, I concluded that Mexico, and Central America in general, might be a potential hotspot for AIV reassortment events, a possibility which to date has not attracted widespread attention. Overall, the work carried out in this thesis described the evolutionary dynamics of AIV from which important conclusions regarding its epidemiological impact in both Eurasia and North America can be drawn

A large population sample of African HIV genomes from the 1980s reveals a reduction in subtype D over time associated with propensity for CXCR4 tropism

We present 109 near full-length HIV genomes amplified from blood serum samples obtained during early 1986 from across Uganda, which to our knowledge is the earliest and largest population sample from the initial phase of the HIV epidemic in Africa. Consensus sequences were made from paired-end Illumina reads with a target-capture approach to amplify HIV material following poor success with standard approaches. In comparisons with a smaller 'intermediate' genome dataset from 1998 to 1999 and a 'modern' genome dataset from 2007 to 2016, the proportion of subtype D was significantly higher initially, dropping from 67% (73/109), to 57% (26/46) to 17% (82/465) respectively (p < 0.0001). Subtype D has previously been shown to have a faster rate of disease progression than other subtypes in East African population studies, and to have a higher propensity to use the CXCR4 co-receptor ("X4 tropism"); associated with a decrease in time to AIDS. Here we find significant differences in predicted tropism between A1 and D subtypes in all three sample periods considered, which is particularly striking the 1986 sample: 66% (53/80) of subtype D env sequences were predicted to be X4 tropic compared with none of the 24 subtype A1. We also analysed the frequency of subtype in the envelope region of inter-subtype recombinants, and found that subtype A1 is over-represented in env, suggesting recombination and selection have acted to remove subtype D env from circulation. The reduction of subtype D frequency over three decades therefore appears to be a result of selective pressure against X4 tropism and its higher virulence. Lastly, we find a subtype D specific codon deletion at position 24 of the V3 loop, which may explain the higher propensity for subtype D to utilise X4 tropism

Transmission of non-B HIV subtypes in the UK is increasingly driven by large non-heterosexual clusters

BACKGROUND: The United Kingdom human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic was historically dominated by HIV subtype B transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Now 50% of diagnoses and prevalent infections are among heterosexual individuals and mainly involve non-B subtypes. Between 2002 and 2010, the prevalence of non-B diagnoses among MSM increased from 5.4% to 17%, and this study focused on the drivers of this change. METHODS: Growth between 2007 and 2009 in transmission clusters among 14 000 subtype A1, C, D, and G sequences from the United Kingdom HIV Drug Resistance Database was analysed by risk group. RESULTS: Of 1148 clusters containing at least 2 sequences in 2007, >75% were pairs and >90% were heterosexual. Most clusters (71.4%) did not grow during the study period. Growth was significantly lower for small clusters and higher for clusters of ≥7 sequences, with the highest growth observed for clusters comprising sequences from MSM and people who inject drugs (PWID). Risk group (P< .0001), cluster size (P< .0001), and subtype (P< .01) were predictive of growth in a generalized linear model. DISCUSSION: Despite the increase in non-B subtypes associated with heterosexual transmission, MSM and PWID are at risk for non-B infections. Crossover of subtype C from heterosexuals to MSM has led to the expansion of this subtype within the United Kingdom

Episodic Sexual Transmission of HIV Revealed by Molecular Phylodynamics

Using viral genotype data from HIV drug resistance testing at a London clinic, Andrew Leigh Brown and colleagues derive the structure of the transmission network through phylogenetic analysis

GALA: an international multicentre randomised trial comparing general anaesthesia versus local anaesthesia for carotid surgery

Background: Patients who have severe narrowing at or near the origin of the internal carotid artery as a result of atherosclerosis have a high risk of ischaemic stroke ipsilateral to the arterial lesion. Previous trials have shown that carotid endarterectomy improves long-term outcomes, particularly when performed soon after a prior transient ischaemic attack or mild ischaemic stroke. However, complications may occur during or soon after surgery, the most serious of which is stroke, which can be fatal. It has been suggested that performing the operation under local anaesthesia, rather than general anaesthesia, may be safer. Therefore, a prospective, randomised trial of local versus general anaesthesia for carotid endarterectomy was proposed to determine whether type of anaesthesia influences peri-operative morbidity and mortality, quality of life and longer term outcome in terms of stroke-free survival. Methods/design: A two-arm, parallel group, multicentre randomised controlled trial with a recruitment target of 5000 patients. For entry into the study, in the opinion of the responsible clinician, the patient requiring an endarterectomy must be suitable for either local or general anaesthesia, and have no clear indication for either type. All patients with symptomatic or asymptomatic internal carotid stenosis for whom open surgery is advised are eligible. There is no upper age limit. Exclusion criteria are: no informed consent; definite preference for local or general anaesthetic by the clinician or patient; patient unlikely to be able to co-operate with awake testing during local anaesthesia; patient requiring simultaneous bilateral carotid endarterectomy; carotid endarterectomy combined with another operation such as coronary bypass surgery; and, the patient has been randomised into the trial previously. Patients are randomised to local or general anaesthesia by the central trial office. The primary outcome is the proportion of patients alive, stroke free ( including retinal infarction) and without myocardial infarction 30 days post-surgery. Secondary outcomes include the proportion of patients alive and stroke free at one year; health related quality of life at 30 days; surgical adverse events, re-operation and re-admission rates; the relative cost of the two methods of anaesthesia; length of stay and intensive and high dependency bed occupancy

Most Common Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms Associated With Rheumatoid Arthritis in Persons of European Ancestry Confer Risk of Rheumatoid Arthritis in African Americans

Objective. Large-scale genetic association studies have identified \u3e20 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) risk alleles among individuals of European ancestry. The influence of these risk alleles has not been comprehensively studied in African Americans. We therefore sought to examine whether these validated RA risk alleles are associated with RA risk in an African American population. Methods. Twenty-seven candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped in 556 autoantibody-positive African Americans with RA and 791 healthy African American control subjects. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for each SNP were compared with previously published ORs for RA patients of European ancestry. We then calculated a composite genetic risk score (GRS) for each individual based on the sum of all risk alleles. Results. Overlap of the ORs and 95% CIs between the European and African American populations was observed for 24 of the 27 candidate SNPs. Conversely, 3 of the 27 SNPs (CCR6 rs3093023, TAGAP rs394581, and TNFAIP3 rs6920220) demonstrated ORs in the opposite direction from those reported for RA patients of European ancestry. The GRS analysis indicated a small but highly significant probability that African American patients relative to control subjects were enriched for the risk alleles validated in European RA patients (P = 0.00005). Conclusion. The majority of RA risk alleles previously validated for RA patients of European ancestry showed similar ORs in our population of African Americans with RA. Furthermore, the aggregate GRS supports the hypothesis that these SNPs are risk alleles for RA in the African American population. Future large-scale genetic studies are needed to validate these risk alleles and identify novel RA risk alleles in African Americans