45 research outputs found

    National CO2 budgets (2015–2020) inferred from atmospheric CO2 observations in support of the Global Stocktake

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    Accurate accounting of emissions and removals of CO2 is critical for the planning and verification of emission reduction targets in support of the Paris Agreement. Here, we present a pilot dataset of country-specific net carbon exchange (NCE; fossil plus terrestrial ecosystem fluxes) and terrestrial carbon stock changes aimed at informing countries’ carbon budgets. These estimates are based on "top-down" NCE outputs from the v10 Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) modeling intercomparison project (MIP), wherein an ensemble of inverse modeling groups conducted standardized experiments assimilating OCO-2 column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals (ACOS v10), in situ CO2 measurements, or combinations of these data. The v10 OCO-2 MIP NCE estimates are combined with "bottom-up" estimates of fossil fuel emissions and lateral carbon fluxes to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon stocks, which are impacted by anthropogenic and natural drivers. These flux and stock change estimates are reported annually (2015–2020) as both a global 1° × 1° gridded dataset and as a country-level dataset. Across the v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments, we obtain increases in the ensemble median terrestrial carbon stocks of 3.29–4.58 PgCO2 yr-1 (0.90–1.25 PgC yr-1). This is a result of broad increases in terrestrial carbon stocks across the northern extratropics, while the tropics generally have stock losses but with considerable regional variability and differences between v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments. We discuss the state of the science for tracking emissions and removals using top-down methods, including current limitations and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems

    Global Carbon Budget 2023

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    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based f CO2 products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2022, EFOS increased by 0.9 % relative to 2021, with fossil emissions at 9.9 ± 0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2 ± 0.5 Gt C yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.2 ± 0.7 Gt C yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.8 Gt C yr−1 (40.7±3.2 Gt CO2 yr−1). Also, for 2022, GATM was 4.6±0.2 Gt C yr−1 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.8 ± 0.4 Gt C yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8 ± 0.8 Gt C yr−1, with a BIM of −0.1 Gt C yr−1 (i.e. total estimated sources marginally too low or sinks marginally too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2022 reached 417.1 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2023 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2022 of +1.1 % (0.0 % to 2.1 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2022, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 Gt C yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living-data update documents changes in methods and data sets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023)

    SUPPLY CHAIN COORDINATION WITH CVaR CRITERION

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    We study the coordination of supply chains with a risk-neutral supplier and a risk-averse retailer. Different from the downside risk setting, in a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) framework, we show that the supply chain can be coordinated with the revenue-sharing, buy-back, two-part tariff and quantity flexibility contracts. Furthermore the revenue-sharing contracts are still equivalent to the buy-back contracts when the retail price is fixed. At the same time, it is shown that the risk-averse retailer of the coordinated supply chain can increase its profit by raising its risk-averse degree under mild conditions.Supply chain coordination, newsvendor model, risk-aversion, supply contract, conditional value-at-risk

    Visual Attention Prediction for Stereoscopic Video by Multi-Module Fully Convolutional Network

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    Near-optimal (r,Q) policies for a two-stage serial inventory system with Poisson demand

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    We consider a two-stage serial inventory system whose cost structure exhibits economies of scale in both stages. In the system, stage 1 faces Poisson demand and replenishes its inventory from stage 2, and the latter stage in turn orders from an outside supplier with unlimited stock. Each shipment, either to stage 2 or to stage 1, incurs a fixed setup cost. We derive important properties for a given echelon-stock (r, Q) policy for an approximation of the problem where all states are continuous. Based on these properties, we design a simple heuristic algorithm that can be used to find a near-optimal (r, Q) policy for the original problem. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm.Multi-echelon inventory (r,Q) policy Stochastic demand Algorithm

    Chloroplast transformation for bioencapsulation and oral delivery using the immunoglobulin G fragment crystallizable (Fc) domain

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    Abstract Proinsulin Like Growth Factor I (prolGF-I) and myostatin (Mstn) regulate muscle regeneration and mass when intravenously delivered. We tested if chloroplast bioencapsulated forms of these proteins may serve as a non-invasive means of drug delivery through the digestive system. We created tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) plants carrying GFP-Fc1, proIGF-I-Fc1, and Mstn-Fc1 fusion genes, in which fusion with the immunoglobulin G Fc domain improved both protein stability and absorption in the small intestine. No transplastomic plants were obtained with the Mstn-Fc1 gene, suggesting that the protein is toxic to plant cells. proIGF-I-Fc1 protein levels were too low to enable in vivo testing. However, GFP-Fc1 accumulated at a high level, enabling evaluation of chloroplast-made Fc fusion proteins for oral delivery. Tobacco leaves were lyophilized for testing in a mouse system. We report that the orally administered GFP-Fc1 fusion protein (5.45 µg/g GFP-Fc1) has been taken up by the intestinal epithelium cells, evidenced by confocal microscopy. GFP-Fc1 subsequently entered the circulation where it was detected by ELISA. Data reported here confirm that chloroplast expression and oral administration of lyophilized leaves is a potential delivery system of therapeutic proteins fused with Fc1, with the advantage that the proteins may be stored at room temperature

    Methane emissions from livestock in East Asia during 1961−2019

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    East Asia is a crucial region in the global methane (CH4) budget, with significant contributions from the livestock sector. However, the long-term trend and spatial pattern of CH4 emissions from livestock in this region have not been fully assessed. Here, we estimate CH4 emissions from 10 categories of livestock in East Asia during 1961−2019 following the Tier 2 approaches suggested by IPCC (2019). Our results show that livestock-sourced CH4 emission in 2019 was 13.22 [11.42−15.01] (mean [minimum−maximum of 95% confidence interval] Tg CH4 yr-1, accounting for an increase of 231% since 1961. From 1961 to 2019, the emissions increased first and then stabilized after 2000. The contribution of slaughtered livestock to total emissions increased from 3% in 1961 to 24% in 2019 as a result of a significant increase in the slaughtered population. Spatially, the emission hotspots were mostly distributed in eastern China, South Korea, and parts of Japan, but they tend to shift northward after 2000. This latest long-term inventory can help to understand CH4 budget and to assess CH4 mitigation potential at national and regional levels
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