Variability Abstraction and Refinement for Game-Based Lifted Model Checking of Full CTL

One of the most promising approaches to fighting the configuration space explosion problem in lifted model checking are variability abstractions. In this work, we define a novel game-based approach for variability-specific abstraction and refinement for lifted model checking of the full CTL, interpreted over 3-valued semantics. We propose a direct algorithm for solving a 3-valued (abstract) lifted model checking game. In case the result of model checking an abstract variability model is indefinite, we suggest a new notion of refinement, which eliminates indefinite results. This provides an iterative incremental variability-specific abstraction and refinement framework, where refinement is applied only where indefinite results exist and definite results from previous iterations are reused. The practicality of this approach is demonstrated on several variability models

Modelling the natural history of Huntington's disease progression.

BACKGROUND: The lack of reliable biomarkers to track disease progression is a major problem in clinical research of chronic neurological disorders. Using Huntington's disease (HD) as an example, we describe a novel approach to model HD and show that the progression of a neurological disorder can be predicted for individual patients. METHODS: Starting with an initial cohort of 343 patients with HD that we have followed since 1995, we used data from 68 patients that satisfied our filtering criteria to model disease progression, based on the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS), a measure that is routinely used in HD clinics worldwide. RESULTS: Our model was validated by: (A) extrapolating our equation to model the age of disease onset, (B) testing it on a second patient data set by loosening our filtering criteria, (C) cross-validating with a repeated random subsampling approach and (D) holdout validating with the latest clinical assessment data from the same cohort of patients. With UHDRS scores from the past four clinical visits (over a minimum span of 2 years), our model predicts disease progression of individual patients over the next 2 years with an accuracy of 89-91%. We have also provided evidence that patients with similar baseline clinical profiles can exhibit very different trajectories of disease progression. CONCLUSIONS: This new model therefore has important implications for HD research, most obviously in the development of potential disease-modifying therapies. We believe that a similar approach can also be adapted to model disease progression in other chronic neurological disorders.This study was supported by the Cotswold Trust, the Rosetrees Trust, donations to the Huntington’s disease clinic in the John van Geest Centre for Brain Repair, and NIHR award of the Biomedical Research Centre - Cambridge University NHS Foundation Trust. This project was also supported by EPSRC through projects EP/I03210X/1 and EP/G066477/1.This article has been accepted for publication in Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery, and Psychiatry, following peer review. The definitive copyedited, typeset version J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry doi:10.1136/jnnp-2014-308153 is available online at: http://jnnp.bmj.com/content/early/2014/12/16/jnnp-2014-308153.long

Circadian period and the timing of melatonin onset in men and women: Predictors of sleep during the weekend and in the laboratory

Sleep complaints and irregular sleep patterns, such as curtailed sleep during workdays and longer and later sleep during weekends, are common. It is often implied that differences in circadian period and in entrained phase contribute to these patterns, but few data are available. We assessed parameters of the circadian rhythm of melatonin at baseline and in a forced desynchrony protocol in 35 participants (18 women) with no sleep disorders. Circadian period varied between 23 h 50 min and 24 h 31 min, and correlated positively (n = 31, rs = 0.43, P = 0.017) with the timing of the melatonin rhythm relative to habitual bedtime. The phase of the melatonin rhythm correlated with the Insomnia Severity Index (n = 35, rs = 0.47, P = 0.004). Self-reported time in bed during free days also correlated with the timing of the melatonin rhythm (n = 35, rs = 0.43, P = 0.01) as well as with the circadian period (n = 31, rs = 0.47, P = 0.007), such that individuals with a more delayed melatonin rhythm or a longer circadian period reported longer sleep during the weekend. The increase in time in bed during the free days correlated positively with circadian period (n = 31, rs = 0.54, P = 0.002). Polysomnographically assessed latency to persistent sleep (n = 34, rs = 0.48, P = 0.004) correlated with the timing of the melatonin rhythm when participants were sleeping at their habitual bedtimes in the laboratory. This correlation was significantly stronger in women than in men (Z = 2.38, P = 0.017). The findings show that individual differences in circadian period and phase of the melatonin rhythm associate with differences in sleep, and suggest that individuals with a long circadian period may be at risk of developing sleep problems

Reliability and time-to-failure bounds for discrete-time constrained Markov jump linear systems

[EN] This paper presents a methodology to obtain a guaranteed-reliability controller for constrained linear sys- tems, which switch between different modes according to a Markov chain (Markov jump linear systems). Inside the classical maximal robust controllable set, there is 100% guarantee of never violating constraints at future time. However, outside such set, some sequences might make hitting constraints unavoidable for some disturbance realisations. A guaranteed-reliability controller based on a greedy heuristic approach was proposed in an earlier work for disturbance-free, robustly stabilisable Markov jump linear systems. Here, extensions are presented by, first, considering bounded disturbances and, second, presenting an iterative algorithm based on dynamic programming. In non-stabilisable systems, reliability is zero; therefore, prior results cannot be applied; in this case, optimisation of a mean-time-to-failure bound is proposed, via minor algorithm modifications. Optimality can be proved in the disturbance-free, finitely generated case.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of Spanish MINECO (DPI2011-27845-C02-01, FPU12/02107) and Generalitat Valenciana (PrometeoII/2013/004).Hernandez-Mejias, MA.; Sala, A. (2017). Reliability and time-to-failure bounds for discrete-time constrained Markov jump linear systems. International Journal of Robust and Nonlinear Control. 27:1773-1791. https://doi.org/10.1002/rnc.3635S177317912

Consequences of converting graded to action potentials upon neural information coding and energy efficiency

Information is encoded in neural circuits using both graded and action potentials, converting between them within single neurons and successive processing layers. This conversion is accompanied by information loss and a drop in energy efficiency. We investigate the biophysical causes of this loss of information and efficiency by comparing spiking neuron models, containing stochastic voltage-gated Na+ and K+ channels, with generator potential and graded potential models lacking voltage-gated Na+ channels. We identify three causes of information loss in the generator potential that are the by-product of action potential generation: (1) the voltage-gated Na+ channels necessary for action potential generation increase intrinsic noise and (2) introduce non-linearities, and (3) the finite duration of the action potential creates a ‘footprint’ in the generator potential that obscures incoming signals. These three processes reduce information rates by ~50% in generator potentials, to ~3 times that of spike trains. Both generator potentials and graded potentials consume almost an order of magnitude less energy per second than spike trains. Because of the lower information rates of generator potentials they are substantially less energy efficient than graded potentials. However, both are an order of magnitude more efficient than spike trains due to the higher energy costs and low information content of spikes, emphasizing that there is a two-fold cost of converting analogue to digital; information loss and cost inflation

Interpreting breast international group (BIG) 1-98: a randomized, double-blind, phase III trial comparing letrozole and tamoxifen as adjuvant endocrine therapy for postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive, early breast cancer

The Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 study is a four-arm trial comparing 5 years of monotherapy with tamoxifen or with letrozole or with sequences of 2 years of one followed by 3 years of the other for postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive early invasive breast cancer. From 1998 to 2003, BIG -98 enrolled 8,010 women. The enhanced design f the trial enabled two complementary analyses of efficacy and safety. Collection of tumor specimens further enabled treatment comparisons based on tumor biology. Reports of BIG 1-98 should be interpreted in relation to each individual patient as she weighs the costs and benefits of available treatments

A phase II study of cell cycle inhibitor UCN-01 in patients with metastatic melanoma: a California Cancer Consortium trial

Background Genetic abnormalities in cell cycle control are common in malignant melanoma. UCN-01 (7-hydroxystaurosporine) is an investigational agent that exhibits antitumor activity by perturbing the cancer cell cycle. A patient with advanced melanoma experienced a partial response in a phase I trial of single agent UCN-01. We sought to determine the activity of UCN-01 against refractory metastatic melanoma in a phase II study. Patients and methods Patients with advanced melanoma received UCN-01 at 90 mg/m2 over 3 h on cycle 1, reduced to 45 mg/m2 over 3 h for subsequent cycles, every 21 days. Primary endpoint was tumor response. Secondary endpoints included progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). A two-stage (17 + 16), single arm phase II design was employed. A true response rate of ≥20% (i.e., at least one responder in the first stage, or at least four responders overall) was to be considered promising for further development of UCN-01 in this setting. Results Seventeen patients were accrued in the first stage. One patient was inevaluable for response. Four (24%) patients had stable disease, and 12 (71%) had disease progression. As there were no responders in the first stage, the study was closed to further accrual. Median PFS was 1.3 months (95% CI, 1.2–3.0) while median OS was 7.3 months (95% CI, 3.4–18.4). One-year and two year OS rates were 41% and 12%, respectively. A median of two cycles were delivered (range, 1–18). Grade 3 treatment-related toxicities include hyperglycemia (N = 2), fatigue (N = 1), and diarrhea (N = 1). One patient experienced grade 4 creatinine elevation and grade 4 anemia possibly due to UCN-01. No dose modification was required as these patients had disease progression. Conclusion Although well tolerated, UCN-01 as a single agent did not have sufficient clinical activity to warrant further study in refractory melanoma

Increase Human Metapneumovirus Mediated Morbidity following Pandemic Influenza Infection

Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) is a recently discovered respiratory pathogen, infecting mainly young children. The infected patients suffer from influenza like symptoms (ILS). In Israel the virus is mainly circulating in February to March. Here we report on an increased rate of hMPV infection in the winter season of 2009–10. The 2009–10 infection had several unique characteristics when compared to previous seasons; it started around January and a large number of infants were infected by the virus. Genetic analysis based on the viral L and F genes of hMPV showed that only subtypes A2 and B2 circulated in Israel. Additionally, we have identified a novel variant of hMPV within subgroup A2b, which subdivide it into A2b1 and A2b2. Finally, we showed that the hMPV infection was detected in the country soon after the infection with the pandemic influenza virus had declined, that infection with the pandemic influenza virus was dominant and that it interfered with the infection of other respiratory viruses. Thus, we suggest that the unusual increase in hMPV infection observed in 2009–10 was due to the appearance of the pandemic influenza virus in the winter season prior to 2009–10