8 research outputs found

    Evaluating species distribution model predictions through time against paleozoological records.

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    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to project how species distributions may vary over time, particularly in response climate change. Although the fit of such models to current distributions is regularly enumerated, SDMs are rarely tested across longer time spans to gauge their actual performance under environmental change. Here, we utilise paleozoological presence/absence records to independently assess the predictive accuracy of SDMs through time. To illustrate the approach, we focused on modelling the Holocene distribution of the hartebeest, Alcelaphus buselaphus, a widespread savannah-adapted African antelope. We applied various modelling algorithms to three occurrence datasets, including a point dataset from online repositories and two range maps representing current and 'natural' (i.e. hypothetical assuming no human impact) distributions. We compared conventional model evaluation metrics which assess fit to current distributions (i.e. True Skill Statistic, TSSc, and Area Under the Curve, AUCc) to analogous 'paleometrics' for past distributions (i.e. TSSp, AUCp, and in addition Boycep, F2-scorep and Sorensenp). Our findings reveal only a weak correlation between the ranking of conventional metrics and paleometrics, suggesting that the models most effectively capturing present-day distributions may not be the most reliable to hindcast historical distributions, and that the choice of input data and modelling algorithm both significantly influences environmental suitability predictions and SDM performance. We thus advocate assessment of model performance using paleometrics, particularly those capturing the correct prediction of presences, such as F2-scorep or Sorensenp, due to the potential unreliability of absence data in paleozoological records. By integrating archaeological and paleontological records into the assessment of alternative models' ability to project shifts in species distributions over time, we are likely to enhance our understanding of environmental constraints on species distributions

    Early Pleistocene large mammals from Maka’amitalu, Hadar, lower Awash Valley, Ethiopia

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    The Early Pleistocene was a critical time period in the evolution of eastern African mammal faunas, but fossil assemblages sampling this interval are poorly known from Ethiopia's Afar Depression. Field work by the Hadar Research Project in the Busidima Formation exposures (similar to 2.7-0.8 Ma) of Hadar in the lower Awash Valley, resulted in the recovery of an early Homo maxilla (A.L. 666-1) with associated stone tools and fauna from the Maka'amitalu basin in the 1990s. These assemblages are dated to similar to 2.35 Ma by the Bouroukie Tuff 3 (BKT-3). Continued work by the Hadar Research Project over the last two decades has greatly expanded the faunal collection. Here, we provide a comprehensive account of the Maka'amitalu large mammals (Artiodactyla, Carnivora, Perissodactyla, Primates, and Proboscidea) and discuss their paleoecological and biochronological significance. The size of the Maka'amitalu assemblage is small compared to those from the Hadar Formation (3.45-2.95 Ma) and Ledi-Geraru (2.8-2.6 Ma) but includes at least 20 taxa. Bovids, suids, and Theropithecus are common in terms of both species richness and abundance, whereas carnivorans, equids, and megaherbivores are rare. While the taxonomic composition of the Maka'amitalu fauna indicates significant species turnover from the Hadar Formation and Ledi-Geraru deposits, turnover seems to have occurred at a constant rate through time as taxonomic dissimilarity between adjacent fossil assemblages is strongly predicted by their age difference. A similar pattern characterizes functional ecological turnover, with only subtle changes in dietary proportions, body size proportions, and bovid abundances across the composite lower Awash sequence. Biochronological comparisons with other sites in eastern Africa suggest that the taxa recovered from the Maka'amitalu are broadly consistent with the reported age of the BKT-3 tuff. Considering the age of BKT-3 and biochronology, a range of 2.4-1.9 Ma is most likely for the faunal assemblage.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    New materials of the white rhinoceros Ceratotherium simum and auerochs Bos primigenius from a Late Pleistocene terrace of the Oued el Haï (NE Morocco) - two elements of the Maghrebi Palearctic fauna

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    Most biogeographers considered the Maghreb to be part of the Palearctic biogeographic region, though it is relatively recently that the proportion of Palearctic species increased there. How and when exactly these biogeographic changes occurred is not well understood, but they are probably the result of the increasing aridification of the Sahara and decreasing global temperatures. Fossils of Bos primigenius and Ceratotherium simum from a new fossil locality in a terrace of the Oued el Haï (NE Morocco) contribute to our understanding of some of these biogeographic processes and their timing. They also suggest an age between ~57 and ~100 ka for the terrace. The same evolutionary change in Bos in Europe and the Maghreb suggests geneflow as the most parsimonious explanation, though parallel evolution is an alternative possibility. Oued el Haï has the oldest well-documented record of C. simum in the Maghreb. The dispersal of this species to North Africa, where it replaced C. mauritanicum, may have occurred during a ‘Green Sahara Period’ between 80–85 or 100–105 ka, when the Maghreb had acquired already a Palearctic character. The study of the biogeography and requirements of the large mammals of the Maghreb may provide information to calibrate the region’s climate modelling.This research was supported / funded by: Palarq Foundation, Spanish Ministry of Culture and Sport under grant numbers 42-T002018N0000042853 and 170-T002019N0000038589); Direction of Cultural Heritage (Ministry of Culture and Communication, Morocco); Faculty of Sciences (Mohamed 1r University of Oujda, Morocco); INSAP (Institut National des Sciences de l’Archéologie et du Patrimoine); Agencia Estatal de Investigación (Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities under grant numbers CGL2016-80975-P, CGL2016-80000-P, PGC2018-095489-B-I00 and PGC2018-093925-B-C31; Synthesys (European Science Foundation) under grant numbers DE-TAF-668, GB-TAF-4119, AT-TAF-3663, DK-TAF-6538; Research Group Support of the Generalitat de Catalunya under grant numbers 2017 SGR 859 and 2017 SGR 836. The research of A.R.-H., J.A., R.S.-R. and M.G.Ch. was supported by ‘CERCA Programme/Genarlitat de Catalunya’. The Institut Català de Paleoecologia Humana i Evolució Social (IPHES-CERCA) was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the ‘María de Maeztu’ program for Units of Excellence under grant number CEX2019-000945-M. The research of I.A.L. was supported by the Humboldt Foundation.Peer reviewe

    Early Pleistocene large mammals from Maka’amitalu, Hadar, lower Awash Valley, Ethiopia

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    The Early Pleistocene was a critical time period in the evolution of eastern African mammal faunas, but fossil assemblages sampling this interval are poorly known from Ethiopia ’ s Afar Depression. Field work by the Hadar Research Project in the Busidima Formation exposures (~2.7 – 0.8 Ma) of Hadar in the lower Awash Valley, resulted in the recovery of an early Homo maxilla (A.L. 666-1) with associated stone tools and fauna from the Maka ’ amitalu basin in the 1990s. These assemblages are dated to ~2.35 Ma by the Bouroukie Tuff 3 (BKT-3). Continued work by the Hadar Research Project over the last two decades has greatly expanded the faunal collection. Here, we provide a comprehensive account of the Maka ’ amitalu large mammals (Artiodactyla, Carnivora, Perissodactyla, Primates, and Proboscidea) and discuss their paleoecological and biochronological signi fi cance. The size of the Maka ’ amitalu assemblage is small compared to those from the Hadar Formation (3.45 – 2.95 Ma) and Ledi-Geraru (2.8 – 2.6 Ma) but includes at least 20 taxa. Bovids, suids, and Theropithecus are common in terms of both species richness and abundance, whereas carnivorans, equids, and megaherbivores are rare. While the taxonomic composition of the Maka ’ amitalu fauna indicates signi fi cant species turnover from the Hadar Formation and Ledi-Geraru deposits, turnover seems to have occurred at a constant rate through time as taxonomic dissimilarity between adjacent fossil assemblages is strongly predicted by their age difference. A similar pattern characterizes functional ecological turnover, with only subtle changes in dietary proportions, body size proportions, and bovid abundances across the composite lower Awash sequence. Biochronological comparisons with other sites in eastern Africa suggest that the taxa recovered from the Maka ’ amitalu are broadly consistent with the reported age of the BKT-3 tuff. Considering the age of BKT-3 and biochronology, a range of 2.4 – 1.9 Ma is most likely for the faunal assemblag

    Cave paleozoology in the Judean Desert: assembling records of Holocene wild mammal communities

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    Long temporal records of Holocene wild mammal communities are essential to examine the role of human impacts and climatic fluctuations in the configuration of modern ecosystems. We show that such records can be assembled through extensive radiocarbon dating of faunal remains obtained from biogenic cave deposits. We dated 110 mammalian remains from 19 different cave sites in the Judean Desert. We use the dates in combination with archaeological survey data and bone collagen/apatite δ13C values to study faunal succession in the context of Holocene climate change and human settlement history in the region. Our results suggest a change in the late Holocene, expressed in fewer observations of Arabian leopard (Panthera pardus nimr) and gazelle (Gazella spp.), and an increase of Syrian striped hyena (Hyaena hyaena syriaca), fox (Vulpes spp.), Nubian ibex (Capra nubiana) and rock hyrax (Procavia capensis); suids (Sus scrofa) appear for the first time. According to the data distribution, however, the probability of finding a bone diminishes exponentially with time, which implies that the Judean Desert cave paleozoological record is temporally biased. The weight of evidence ultimately favors an explanation of the observed patterns as the consequence of a combined anthropogenic and climatic impact on local food webs.H2020 European Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010663Alexander von Humboldt‐Stiftung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/10000515

    Long-term biotic homogenization in the East African Rift System over the last 6 million years of hominin evolution

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    Eastern Africa preserves the most complete record of human evolution anywhere in the world but we have little knowledge of how long-term biogeographic dynamics in the region influenced hominin diversity and distributions. Here, we use spatial beta diversity analyses of mammal fossil records from the East African Rift System to reveal long-term biotic homogenization (increasing compositional similarity of faunas) over the last 6 Myr. Late Miocene and Pliocene faunas (~6–3 million years ago (Ma)) were largely composed of endemic species, with the shift towards biotic homogenization after ~3 Ma being driven by the loss of endemic species across functional groups and a growing number of shared grazing species. This major biogeographic transition closely tracks the regional expansion of grass-dominated ecosystems. Although grazers exhibit low beta diversity in open environments of the Early Pleistocene, the high beta diversity of Mio-Pliocene browsers and frugivores occurred in the context of extensive woody vegetation. We identify other key aspects of the Late Cenozoic biogeographic development of eastern Africa, their likely drivers and place the hominin fossil record in this context. Because hominins were undoubtedly influenced by many of the same factors as other eastern African mammals, this provides a new perspective on the links between environmental and human evolutionary histories.</p
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