Estimating predictive value of tests without having a Gold Standard: the concept of Etiologic Predictive Value (EPV)

Background: Patients with infectious diseases often require the use of microbiologic diagnostic tests. Predictive value of tests are used to describe the usefulness of a diagnostic test in a specific setting. Sometimes an acceptable Gold standard is lacking making it difficult to evaluate the usefulness of a new diagnostic test. Aims Of Study/project: Describe how predictive value of tests can be calculated despite the absence of an acceptable Gold Standard. Also to describe how to account for asymptomatic carriers. Methods: Mathematical derivation shows that information from a healthy control population can, for most scenarios, be used to calculate predictive value of tests despite the absence of a Gold Standard. Results: Rules for how the usefulness of diagnostic tests can be estimated in the absence of a Gold Standard. The new statistical method considers the influence asymptomatic carriers will have on the diagnostic process. These rules are especially suited for evaluating microbiologic diagnostic tests but can be used also in other scenarios. Conclusions/ Recommendations: The existing Gold Standard should always be challenged when evaluating a new diagnostic test. Etiologic Predictive Value offers an alternative to comparing the new test with a conventional Gold Standard

Comparing the effects of two treatments on two ordinal outcome variables

When evaluating whether the effect of one treatment is larger than that of another the first step in the comparison is to decide what should be understood by the statement that one patient has achieved a greater effect than has another patient. When the outcome variable is quantitative, measured on a ratio scale, absolute or relative effects are the most commonly used effect measures; however, such effects are usually not meaningful for ordinal outcome variables. In order to answer the question whether one of two treatments acts more effectively on one of two outcome variables and the other treatment more efficiently on the other we shall present a method of comparing the treatment effects of patients that is based on pair-wise comparisons between patients in analogy with many non-parametrical methods. These comparisons use only the ordinal properties of the outcome variables. We shall even define a measure of the difference between the treatment effects and demonstrate how confidence intervals can be constructed

Експортно­імпортні операції в Чернігівській губернії на початку ХХ ст.

У статті на основі маловідомих фактів досліджується організація зовнішньої торгівлі в Чернігівській губернії Російської імперії на початку ХХ ст. Показані основні екпортно-імпортні операції, особливості економічного розвитку регіону.В научной статье на основании использования неизвестных ранее фактов исследуется организация внешней торговли в Черниговской губернии Российской империи в начале ХХ века. Показаны основные экспортно-импортные операции и особенности экономического развития региона.In scientific article author research the special organization of foreign trade in Chernigov’s region of Russian empire in the beginning of 20 century. Export-import operations and economic development had illustration in this work

Concentration of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes in whole blood samples by magnetic cell sorting enhances parasite infection rates in mosquito feeding assays.

BACKGROUND: Mosquito-feeding assays are important tools to guide the development and support the evaluation of transmission-blocking interventions. These functional bioassays measure the sporogonic development of gametocytes in blood-fed mosquitoes. Measuring the infectivity of low gametocyte densities has become increasingly important in malaria elimination scenarios. This will pose challenges to the sensitivity and throughput of existing mosquito-feeding assay protocols. Here, different gametocyte concentration methods of blood samples were explored to optimize conditions for detection of positive mosquito infections. METHODS: Mature gametocytes of Plasmodium falciparum were diluted into whole blood samples of malaria-naïve volunteers. Standard centrifugation, Percoll gradient, magnetic cell sorting (MACS) enrichment were compared using starting blood volumes larger than the control (direct) feed. RESULTS: MACS gametocyte enrichment resulted in the highest infection intensity with statistically significant increases in mean oocyst density in 2 of 3 experiments (p = 0.0003; p ≤ 0.0001; p = 0.2348). The Percoll gradient and standard centrifugation procedures resulted in variable infectivity. A significant increase in the proportion of infected mosquitoes and oocyst density was found when larger volumes of gametocyte-infected blood were used with the MACS procedure. CONCLUSIONS: The current study demonstrates that concentration methods of P. falciparum gametocyte-infected whole blood samples can enhance transmission in mosquito-feeding assays. Gametocyte purification by MACS was the most efficient method, allowing the assessment of gametocyte infectivity in low-density gametocyte infections, as can be expected in natural or experimental conditions

Semi-high-throughput detection of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax oocysts in mosquitoes using bead-beating followed by circumsporozoite ELISA and quantitative PCR.

BACKGROUND: The malaria infection status of mosquitoes is commonly determined by microscopic detection of oocysts on the dissected mosquito midgut. This method is labour-intensive, does not allow processing of large numbers of mosquitoes and can be challenging in terms of objective classification of oocysts. Here, a semi-high-throughput bead-beating ELISA method is proposed for detection of the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) followed by confirmation by quantitative PCR (qPCR). METHODS: Cultured Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes were offered to Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes and examined by microscopy. After bead-beating, mosquito homogenate was examined by CSP-ELISA and 18S qPCR. As negative controls, mosquitoes that were offered a heat-inactivated gametocyte blood meal were used. The CSP-ELISA/qPCR methodology was applied to high and low-intensity infections of cultured P. falciparum gametocytes. A similar methodology optimized for P. vivax was used on mosquitoes that were offered blood from Ethiopian donors who were naturally infected with P. vivax. RESULTS: There was considerable variation in CSP-ELISA signal and qPCR values in mosquitoes with low oocyst intensities. There was a strong agreement mosquito positivity by CSP-ELISA and by qPCR in mosquitoes that fed on cultured P. falciparum material (agreement 96.9%; kappa = 0.97) and naturally infected P. vivax parasite carriers [agreement 92.4% (kappa = 0.83)]. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed bead-beating CSP-ELISA/qPCR methodology considerably increases throughput for the detection of mosquito infection. qPCR remains necessary to confirm infections in mosquitoes with low CSP-ELISA signal. This methodology may prove particularly useful for studies where very low mosquito infection prevalence is expected and study sites where experience with oocyst detection is limited

Unravelling the immune signature of Plasmodium falciparum transmission-reducing immunity

Infection with Plasmodium can elicit antibodies that inhibit parasite survival in the mosquito, when they are ingested in an infectious blood meal. Here, we determine the transmission-reducing activity (TRA) of naturally acquired antibodies from 648 malaria-exposed individuals using lab-based mosquito-feeding assays. Transmission inhibition is significantly associated with antibody responses to Pfs48/45, Pfs230, and to 43 novel gametocyte proteins assessed by protein microarray. In field-based mosquito-feeding assays the likelihood and rate of mosquito infection are significantly lower for individuals reactive to Pfs48/45, Pfs230 or to combinations of the novel TRA-associated proteins. We also show that naturally acquired purified antibodies against key transmission-blocking epitopes of Pfs48/45 and Pfs230 are mechanistically involved in TRA, whereas sera depleted of these antibodies retain high-level, complement-independent TRA. Our analysis demonstrates that host antibody responses to gametocyte proteins are associated with reduced malaria transmission efficiency from humans to mosquitoes

A randomized feasibility trial comparing four antimalarial drug regimens to induce Plasmodium falciparum gametocytemia in the controlled human malaria infection model.

Background: Malaria elimination strategies require a thorough understanding of parasite transmission from human to mosquito. A clinical model to induce gametocytes to understand their dynamics and evaluate transmission-blocking interventions (TBI) is currently unavailable. Here, we explore the use of the well-established Controlled Human Malaria Infection model (CHMI) to induce gametocyte carriage with different antimalarial drug regimens. Methods: In a single centre, open-label randomised trial, healthy malaria-naive participants (aged 18–35 years) were infected with Plasmodium falciparum by bites of infected Anopheles mosquitoes. Participants were randomly allocated to four different treatment arms (n = 4 per arm) comprising low-dose (LD) piperaquine (PIP) or sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), followed by a curative regimen upon recrudescence. Male and female gametocyte densities were determined by molecular assays. Results: Mature gametocytes were observed in all participants (16/16, 100%). Gametocytes appeared 8.5–12 days after the first detection of asexual parasites. Peak gametocyte densities and gametocyte burden was highest in the LD-PIP/SP arm, and associated with the preceding asexual parasite biomass (p=0.026). Male gametocytes had a mean estimated circulation time of 2.7 days (95% CI 1.5–3.9) compared to 5.1 days (95% CI 4.1–6.1) for female gametocytes. Exploratory mosquito feeding assays showed successful sporadic mosquito infections. There were no serious adverse events or significant differences in the occurrence and severity of adverse events between study arms (p=0.49 and p=0.28). Conclusions: The early appearance of gametocytes indicates gametocyte commitment during the first wave of asexual parasites emerging from the liver. Treatment by LD-PIP followed by a curative SP regimen, results in the highest gametocyte densities and the largest number of gametocyte-positive days. This model can be used to evaluate the effect of drugs and vaccines on gametocyte dynamics, and lays the foundation for fulfilling the critical unmet need to evaluate transmission-blocking interventions against falciparum malaria for downstream selection and clinical development. Funding: Funded by PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative (MVI). Clinical trial number: NCT02836002

A randomized feasibility trial comparing four antimalarial drug regimens to induce Plasmodium falciparum gametocytemia in the controlled human malaria infection model

Background: Malaria elimination strategies require a thorough understanding of parasite transmission from human to mosquito. A clinical model to induce gametocytes to understand their dynamics and evaluate transmission-blocking interventions (TBI) is currently unavailable. Here, we explore the use of the well-established Controlled Human Malaria Infection model (CHMI) to induce gametocyte carriage with different antimalarial drug regimens. Methods: In a single centre, open-label randomised tr

Quantification of sporozoite expelling by Anopheles mosquitoes infected with laboratory and naturally circulating P. falciparum gametocytes

It is currently unknown whether all Plasmodium falciparum-infected mosquitoes are equally infectious. We assessed sporogonic development using cultured gametocytes in the Netherlands and naturally circulating strains in Burkina Faso. We quantified the number of sporozoites expelled into artificial skin in relation to intact oocysts, ruptured oocysts, and residual salivary gland sporozoites. In laboratory conditions, higher total sporozoite burden was associated with shorter duration of sporogony (p<0.001). Overall, 53% (116/216) of infected Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes expelled sporozoites into artificial skin with a median of 136 expelled sporozoites (interquartile range [IQR], 34–501). There was a strong positive correlation between ruptured oocyst number and salivary gland sporozoite load (ρ = 0.8; p<0.0001) and a weaker positive correlation between salivary gland sporozoite load and number of sporozoites expelled (ρ = 0.35; p=0.0002). In Burkina Faso, Anopheles coluzzii mosquitoes were infected by natural gametocyte carriers. Among salivary gland sporozoite positive mosquitoes, 89% (33/37) expelled sporozoites with a median of 1035 expelled sporozoites (IQR, 171–2969). Again, we observed a strong correlation between ruptured oocyst number and salivary gland sporozoite load (ρ = 0.9; p<0.0001) and a positive correlation between salivary gland sporozoite load and the number of sporozoites expelled (ρ = 0.7; p<0.0001). Several mosquitoes expelled multiple parasite clones during probing. Whilst sporozoite expelling was regularly observed from mosquitoes with low infection burdens, our findings indicate that mosquito infection burden is positively associated with the number of expelled sporozoites. Future work is required to determine the direct implications of these findings for transmission potential

<i>Anopheles stephensi</i> as an emerging malaria vector in the Horn of Africa with high susceptibility to Ethiopian <i>Plasmodium vivax</i> and <i>Plasmodium falciparum</i> isolates

AbstractAnopheles stephensi, an efficient Asian malaria vector, recently spread into the Horn of Africa and may increase malaria receptivity in African urban areas. We assessed occurrence, genetic complexity, blood meal source and infection status of An. stephensi in Awash Sebat Kilo town, Ethiopia. We used membrane feeding assays to assess competence of local An. stephensi to P. vivax and P. falciparum isolates from clinical patients. 75.3% of the examined waterbodies were infested with An. stephensi developmental stages that were genetically closely related to isolates from Djibouti and Pakistan. Both P. vivax and P. falciparum were detected in wild-caught adult An. stephensi. Local An. stephensi was more receptive to P. vivax compared to a colony of An. arabiensis. We conclude that An. stephensi is an established vector in this part of Ethiopia, highly permissive for local P. vivax and P. falciparum isolates and presents an important new challenge for malaria control.Summary of the articleAn. stephensi, a metropolitan malaria vector that recently expanded to the Horn of African, was highly susceptible to local P. falciparum and P. vivax isolates from Ethiopia and may increase malariogenic potential of rapidly expanding urban settings in Africa.</jats:sec